OKLO 预期波动历史 Oklo Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内70%
|实际值| 低于预期值70%
平均预期波动幅度±10.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度7.6%
平均绝对误差4.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 28.02 | ±0.5% | 27.89–28.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 28.98 | ±4.8% | 27.59–30.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 31.85 | ±5.4% | 30.13–33.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 34.75 | ±6.5% | 32.48–37.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 34.72 | ±7.6% | 32.09–37.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 36.80 | ±7.9% | 33.88–39.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 38.42 | ±9.3% | 34.85–41.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 36.03 | ±8.9% | 32.81–39.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 35.97 | ±9.7% | 32.48–39.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 36.19 | ±10.7% | 32.30–40.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 40.62 | ±14.7% | 34.66–46.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 40.61 | ±14.7% | 34.65–46.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 40.28 | ±15.4% | 34.06–46.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 38.02 | ±16.1% | 31.89–44.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 39.62 | ±16.4% | 33.12–46.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 35.87 | ±15.6% | 30.27–41.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 35.80 | ±16.3% | 29.97–41.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 36.15 | ±16.9% | 30.04–42.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 36.35 | ±17.1% | 30.14–42.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 39.91 | ±18.9% | 32.37–47.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 42.53 | ±21.0% | 33.60–51.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 43.45 | ±21.0% | 34.33–52.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 41.24 | ±19.7% | 33.12–49.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 41.20 | ±19.7% | 33.07–49.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 39.87 | ±19.3% | 32.17–47.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 39.62 | ±19.6% | 31.87–47.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 38.56 | ±21.1% | 30.41–46.71 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 40.50 | ±20.5% | 32.20–48.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 28.02 | ±8.2% | 25.73–30.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 28.98 | ±9.1% | 26.34–31.62 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 34.75 → 34.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 34.72 → 34.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 36.80 → 34.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -9.7% | 区间外 | 38.42 → 34.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 36.03 → 34.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 35.97 → 34.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 36.19 → 34.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -14.6% | 区间外 | 40.62 → 34.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -14.6% | 区间外 | 40.61 → 34.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -13.8% | 区间外 | 40.28 → 34.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -8.7% | 区间内 | 38.02 → 34.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | -12.4% | 区间内 | 39.62 → 34.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 35.87 → 34.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.4% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 35.80 → 34.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.7% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 36.15 → 34.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 36.35 → 34.70 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | -13.1% | 区间内 | 39.91 → 34.70 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.9% | -18.4% | 区间外 | 42.53 → 34.70 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.7% | -20.1% | 区间外 | 43.45 → 34.70 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.5% | -15.9% | 区间内 | 41.24 → 34.70 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.5% | -15.8% | 区间内 | 41.20 → 34.70 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.7% | -13.0% | 区间内 | 39.87 → 34.70 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.9% | -12.4% | 区间内 | 39.62 → 34.70 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.9% | -10.0% | 区间内 | 38.56 → 34.70 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.7% | -14.3% | 区间内 | 40.50 → 34.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 35.97 → 35.87 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 36.19 → 35.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -11.7% | 区间外 | 40.62 → 35.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -11.7% | 区间外 | 40.61 → 35.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | -10.9% | 区间外 | 40.28 → 35.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | -5.7% | 区间内 | 38.02 → 35.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.8% | -9.5% | 区间内 | 39.62 → 35.87 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 35.87 → 35.87 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.1% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 35.80 → 35.87 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.4% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 36.15 → 35.87 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.9% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 36.35 → 35.87 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.9% | -10.1% | 区间内 | 39.91 → 35.87 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.9% | -15.7% | 区间内 | 42.53 → 35.87 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.2% | -17.4% | 区间外 | 43.45 → 35.87 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.0% | -13.0% | 区间内 | 41.24 → 35.87 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.0% | -12.9% | 区间内 | 41.20 → 35.87 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.9% | -10.0% | 区间内 | 39.87 → 35.87 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.9% | -9.5% | 区间内 | 39.62 → 35.87 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.0% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 38.56 → 35.87 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.8% | -11.4% | 区间内 | 40.50 → 35.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -6.4% | 区间外 | 40.62 → 38.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -6.3% | 区间外 | 40.61 → 38.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 40.28 → 38.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 38.02 → 38.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.3% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 39.62 → 38.04 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.6% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 35.87 → 38.04 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.4% | +6.3% | 区间内 | 35.80 → 38.04 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.6% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 36.15 → 38.04 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.2% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 36.35 → 38.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.3% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 39.91 → 38.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.3% | -10.6% | 区间内 | 42.53 → 38.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.8% | -12.5% | 区间内 | 43.45 → 38.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.5% | -7.8% | 区间内 | 41.24 → 38.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.5% | -7.7% | 区间内 | 41.20 → 38.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.4% | -4.6% | 区间内 | 39.87 → 38.04 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.