OKLO historial de movimiento esperado Oklo Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango55%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado55%
Movimiento esperado promedio±11.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio11.6%
Error medio abs.5.8pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 27.31 | ±7.1% | 25.38–29.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 28.02 | ±8.2% | 25.73–30.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 28.98 | ±9.1% | 26.34–31.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 31.85 | ±8.8% | 29.05–34.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 34.75 | ±9.3% | 31.53–37.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 34.72 | ±10.4% | 31.12–38.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 36.80 | ±10.4% | 32.98–40.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 38.42 | ±11.9% | 33.86–42.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 36.03 | ±11.5% | 31.88–40.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 35.97 | ±11.9% | 31.68–40.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 36.19 | ±13.0% | 31.49–40.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 40.62 | ±16.3% | 33.99–47.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 40.61 | ±16.3% | 33.98–47.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 40.28 | ±16.9% | 33.48–47.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 38.02 | ±17.8% | 31.27–44.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 39.62 | ±18.6% | 32.25–47.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 35.87 | ±17.6% | 29.54–42.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 35.80 | ±18.3% | 29.23–42.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 36.15 | ±19.2% | 29.20–43.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 36.35 | ±18.7% | 29.55–43.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 39.91 | ±20.7% | 31.66–48.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 42.53 | ±21.5% | 33.41–51.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 43.45 | ±22.0% | 33.88–53.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 41.24 | ±21.8% | 32.27–50.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 41.20 | ±21.8% | 32.22–50.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 39.87 | ±20.2% | 31.84–47.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 27.31 | ±11.1% | 24.29–30.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 28.02 | ±11.5% | 24.79–31.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 28.98 | ±11.9% | 25.54–32.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 31.85 | ±11.5% | 28.18–35.52 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | -0.2% | dentro | 28.02 → 27.97 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -3.5% | dentro | 28.98 → 27.97 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -12.2% | fuera | 31.85 → 27.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -19.5% | fuera | 34.75 → 27.97 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -19.4% | fuera | 34.72 → 27.97 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -24.0% | fuera | 36.80 → 27.97 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -27.2% | fuera | 38.42 → 27.97 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -22.4% | fuera | 36.03 → 27.97 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -22.2% | fuera | 35.97 → 27.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -22.7% | fuera | 36.19 → 27.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.7% | -31.1% | fuera | 40.62 → 27.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.7% | -31.1% | fuera | 40.61 → 27.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | -30.6% | fuera | 40.28 → 27.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.1% | -26.4% | fuera | 38.02 → 27.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.4% | -29.4% | fuera | 39.62 → 27.97 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | -22.0% | fuera | 35.87 → 27.97 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | -21.9% | fuera | 35.80 → 27.97 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.9% | -22.6% | fuera | 36.15 → 27.97 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.1% | -23.1% | fuera | 36.35 → 27.97 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.9% | -29.9% | fuera | 39.91 → 27.97 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.0% | -34.2% | fuera | 42.53 → 27.97 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.0% | -35.6% | fuera | 43.45 → 27.97 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.7% | -32.2% | fuera | 41.24 → 27.97 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.7% | -32.1% | fuera | 41.20 → 27.97 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.3% | -29.8% | fuera | 39.87 → 27.97 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.6% | -29.4% | fuera | 39.62 → 27.97 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.1% | -27.5% | fuera | 38.56 → 27.97 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.5% | -30.9% | fuera | 40.50 → 27.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 34.75 → 34.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -0.1% | dentro | 34.72 → 34.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -5.7% | fuera | 36.80 → 34.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -9.7% | fuera | 38.42 → 34.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -3.7% | dentro | 36.03 → 34.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 35.97 → 34.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -4.1% | dentro | 36.19 → 34.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -14.6% | fuera | 40.62 → 34.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -14.6% | fuera | 40.61 → 34.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -13.8% | fuera | 40.28 → 34.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -8.7% | dentro | 38.02 → 34.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | -12.4% | dentro | 39.62 → 34.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | -3.3% | dentro | 35.87 → 34.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.4% | -3.1% | dentro | 35.80 → 34.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.7% | -4.0% | dentro | 36.15 → 34.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | -4.5% | dentro | 36.35 → 34.70 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | -13.1% | dentro | 39.91 → 34.70 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.9% | -18.4% | fuera | 42.53 → 34.70 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.7% | -20.1% | fuera | 43.45 → 34.70 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.5% | -15.9% | dentro | 41.24 → 34.70 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.5% | -15.8% | dentro | 41.20 → 34.70 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.7% | -13.0% | dentro | 39.87 → 34.70 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.9% | -12.4% | dentro | 39.62 → 34.70 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.9% | -10.0% | dentro | 38.56 → 34.70 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.7% | -14.3% | dentro | 40.50 → 34.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 35.97 → 35.87 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 36.19 → 35.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -11.7% | fuera | 40.62 → 35.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -11.7% | fuera | 40.61 → 35.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | -10.9% | fuera | 40.28 → 35.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | -5.7% | dentro | 38.02 → 35.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.8% | -9.5% | dentro | 39.62 → 35.87 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.