NVDA 预期波动历史 NVIDIA Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项200
收盘价处于区间内60%
|实际值| 低于预期值60%
平均预期波动幅度±4.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.6%
平均绝对误差2.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 217.50 | ±0.2% | 217.06–217.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 214.68 | ±2.2% | 210.03–219.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 220.89 | ±3.4% | 213.44–228.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 229.07 | ±3.1% | 222.00–236.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 229.47 | ±3.5% | 221.37–237.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 230.95 | ±4.0% | 221.65–240.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 237.36 | ±3.9% | 228.09–246.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 239.41 | ±3.9% | 229.96–248.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 239.44 | ±4.8% | 227.99–250.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 217.50 | ±2.1% | 212.84–222.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 214.68 | ±3.3% | 207.56–221.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 220.89 | ±4.1% | 211.91–229.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 229.07 | ±3.7% | 220.57–237.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 229.47 | ±4.0% | 220.35–238.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 230.95 | ±4.5% | 220.57–241.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 237.36 | ±4.2% | 227.34–247.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 239.41 | ±4.4% | 228.99–249.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 217.50 | ±3.1% | 210.80–224.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 214.68 | ±4.1% | 205.93–223.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 220.89 | ±4.6% | 210.76–231.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 229.07 | ±4.2% | 219.50–238.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 229.47 | ±4.5% | 219.20–239.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 230.95 | ±5.0% | 219.43–242.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 237.36 | ±4.8% | 225.94–248.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 239.41 | ±4.8% | 227.96–250.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 239.44 | ±4.9% | 227.66–251.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 233.94 | ±5.4% | 221.22–246.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 231.09 | ±6.0% | 217.34–244.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 228.56 | ±7.3% | 211.86–245.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 228.27 | ±7.3% | 211.57–244.97 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 214.68 → 214.13 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -3.1% | 区间外 | 220.89 → 214.13 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -6.5% | 区间外 | 229.07 → 214.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 229.47 → 214.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -7.3% | 区间外 | 230.95 → 214.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -9.8% | 区间外 | 237.36 → 214.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -10.6% | 区间外 | 239.41 → 214.13 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -10.6% | 区间外 | 239.44 → 214.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -8.5% | 区间外 | 233.94 → 214.13 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -7.3% | 区间外 | 231.09 → 214.13 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -6.3% | 区间内 | 228.56 → 214.13 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -6.2% | 区间内 | 228.27 → 214.13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -5.7% | 区间内 | 227.03 → 214.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 222.18 → 214.13 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 219.30 → 214.13 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 214.42 → 214.13 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 212.32 → 214.13 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 212.19 → 214.13 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 218.38 → 214.13 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 218.70 → 214.13 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 223.65 → 214.13 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 225.63 → 214.13 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -6.7% | 区间内 | 229.49 → 214.13 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -6.9% | 区间内 | 229.99 → 214.13 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -6.3% | 区间内 | 228.54 → 214.13 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 225.18 → 214.13 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 217.50 → 214.13 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 220.34 → 214.13 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.7% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 220.89 → 221.30 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.7% | -3.4% | 区间外 | 229.07 → 221.30 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.5% | -3.6% | 区间外 | 229.47 → 221.30 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | -4.2% | 区间外 | 230.95 → 221.30 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.0% | -6.8% | 区间外 | 237.36 → 221.30 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 239.41 → 221.30 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.5% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 239.44 → 221.30 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | -5.4% | 区间外 | 233.94 → 221.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.3% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 231.09 → 221.30 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.4% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 229.47 → 226.32 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.3% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 230.95 → 226.32 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.3% | -4.7% | 区间外 | 237.36 → 226.32 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.4% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 239.41 → 226.32 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.8% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 239.44 → 226.32 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.3% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 233.94 → 226.32 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.9% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 231.09 → 226.32 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 229.47 → 229.28 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 230.95 → 229.28 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | -3.4% | 区间外 | 237.36 → 229.28 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -4.2% | 区间外 | 239.41 → 229.28 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -4.2% | 区间外 | 239.44 → 229.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 233.94 → 229.28 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 231.09 → 229.28 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 228.56 → 229.28 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 228.27 → 229.28 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 227.03 → 229.28 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 222.18 → 229.28 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 219.30 → 229.28 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +6.9% | 区间外 | 214.42 → 229.28 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 212.32 → 229.28 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +8.1% | 区间外 | 212.19 → 229.28 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 218.38 → 229.28 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.