NU 预期波动历史 Nu Holdings Ltd.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内55%
|实际值| 低于预期值55%
平均预期波动幅度±6.7%
平均|实际|波动幅度6.5%
平均绝对误差3.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 14.52 | ±4.6% | 13.86–15.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 14.53 | ±5.3% | 13.77–15.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 14.84 | ±5.3% | 14.06–15.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 15.59 | ±6.0% | 14.66–16.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 16.06 | ±6.7% | 14.99–17.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 15.40 | ±6.9% | 14.33–16.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 15.62 | ±6.9% | 14.54–16.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 15.64 | ±7.7% | 14.43–16.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 15.22 | ±9.3% | 13.81–16.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 13.45 | ±9.6% | 12.16–14.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 13.28 | ±9.8% | 11.98–14.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 14.14 | ±10.4% | 12.67–15.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 14.12 | ±10.4% | 12.65–15.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 14.06 | ±9.6% | 12.72–15.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 13.69 | ±11.1% | 12.18–15.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 13.89 | ±10.9% | 12.38–15.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 13.83 | ±11.4% | 12.26–15.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 14.19 | ±12.1% | 12.47–15.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 14.44 | ±10.3% | 12.95–15.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 14.66 | ±11.0% | 13.04–16.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 15.02 | ±12.3% | 13.18–16.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 14.99 | ±11.6% | 13.24–16.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 15.33 | ±12.5% | 13.42–17.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 15.35 | ±11.7% | 13.56–17.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 15.36 | ±11.7% | 13.56–17.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 15.67 | ±13.5% | 13.56–17.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 14.52 | ±10.8% | 12.95–16.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 14.53 | ±12.5% | 12.71–16.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 14.84 | ±9.0% | 13.51–16.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 15.59 | ±8.8% | 14.22–16.96 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 14.53 → 14.56 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 14.84 → 14.56 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 15.59 → 14.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -9.3% | 区间外 | 16.06 → 14.56 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 15.40 → 14.56 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -6.8% | 区间外 | 15.62 → 14.56 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -6.9% | 区间外 | 15.64 → 14.56 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 15.22 → 14.56 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +8.3% | 区间内 | 13.45 → 14.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +9.6% | 区间外 | 13.28 → 14.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 14.14 → 14.56 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 14.12 → 14.56 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 14.06 → 14.56 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +6.3% | 区间内 | 13.69 → 14.56 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 13.89 → 14.56 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 13.83 → 14.56 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 14.19 → 14.56 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 14.44 → 14.56 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 14.66 → 14.56 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 15.02 → 14.56 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 14.99 → 14.56 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 15.33 → 14.56 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 15.35 → 14.56 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 15.36 → 14.56 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -7.1% | 区间内 | 15.67 → 14.56 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 15.33 → 14.56 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 14.42 → 14.56 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 14.53 → 14.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 16.06 → 16.12 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +4.7% | 区间外 | 15.40 → 16.12 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +3.2% | 区间外 | 15.62 → 16.12 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 15.64 → 16.12 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +5.9% | 区间外 | 15.22 → 16.12 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +19.9% | 区间外 | 13.45 → 16.12 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +21.4% | 区间外 | 13.28 → 16.12 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +14.0% | 区间外 | 14.14 → 16.12 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +14.2% | 区间外 | 14.12 → 16.12 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +14.6% | 区间外 | 14.06 → 16.12 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +17.7% | 区间外 | 13.69 → 16.12 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +16.1% | 区间外 | 13.89 → 16.12 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +16.5% | 区间外 | 13.83 → 16.12 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +13.6% | 区间外 | 14.19 → 16.12 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +11.6% | 区间外 | 14.44 → 16.12 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +10.0% | 区间内 | 14.66 → 16.12 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +7.3% | 区间内 | 15.02 → 16.12 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +7.5% | 区间内 | 14.99 → 16.12 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +5.1% | 区间内 | 15.33 → 16.12 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 15.35 → 16.12 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 15.36 → 16.12 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 15.67 → 16.12 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 15.33 → 16.12 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +11.8% | 区间外 | 14.42 → 16.12 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +10.9% | 区间内 | 14.53 → 16.12 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 13.45 → 13.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 13.28 → 13.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 14.14 → 13.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 14.12 → 13.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 14.06 → 13.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 13.69 → 13.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 13.89 → 13.43 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.