NIO 预期波动历史 NIO Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内79%
|实际值| 低于预期值79%
平均预期波动幅度±8.8%
平均|实际|波动幅度5.7%
平均绝对误差3.9pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 3.40 | ±5.3% | 3.22–3.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 3.42 | ±5.6% | 3.23–3.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 3.40 | ±6.8% | 3.17–3.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 3.55 | ±6.3% | 3.33–3.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 3.59 | ±6.7% | 3.35–3.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 3.40 | ±8.5% | 3.11–3.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 3.53 | ±6.2% | 3.31–3.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 3.49 | ±6.9% | 3.25–3.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 3.42 | ±8.2% | 3.14–3.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 3.39 | ±8.6% | 3.10–3.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 3.40 | ±7.9% | 3.13–3.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 3.75 | ±11.6% | 3.31–4.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 3.72 | ±11.7% | 3.29–4.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 3.66 | ±12.0% | 3.22–4.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 3.67 | ±12.4% | 3.21–4.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 3.63 | ±8.5% | 3.32–3.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 3.58 | ±14.8% | 3.05–4.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 3.61 | ±12.5% | 3.16–4.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 3.69 | ±14.2% | 3.17–4.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 3.69 | ±13.0% | 3.21–4.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 3.59 | ±14.3% | 3.07–4.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 3.71 | ±15.5% | 3.13–4.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 3.81 | ±15.9% | 3.21–4.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 3.81 | ±15.0% | 3.24–4.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 3.81 | ±15.0% | 3.24–4.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 3.86 | ±12.6% | 3.37–4.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 3.40 | ±7.5% | 3.15–3.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 3.42 | ±8.2% | 3.14–3.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 3.40 | ±9.0% | 3.10–3.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 3.55 | ±8.0% | 3.27–3.84 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 3.42 → 3.43 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 3.40 → 3.43 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 3.55 → 3.43 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 3.59 → 3.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 3.40 → 3.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 3.53 → 3.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 3.49 → 3.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 3.42 → 3.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 3.39 → 3.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 3.40 → 3.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -8.5% | 区间内 | 3.75 → 3.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -7.8% | 区间内 | 3.72 → 3.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -6.3% | 区间内 | 3.66 → 3.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 3.67 → 3.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 3.63 → 3.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 3.58 → 3.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.1% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 3.61 → 3.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 3.69 → 3.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 3.69 → 3.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.1% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 3.59 → 3.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.2% | -7.5% | 区间内 | 3.71 → 3.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.6% | -10.0% | 区间内 | 3.81 → 3.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -10.0% | 区间内 | 3.81 → 3.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -10.0% | 区间内 | 3.81 → 3.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -11.1% | 区间内 | 3.86 → 3.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | -11.6% | 区间内 | 3.88 → 3.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | -14.9% | 区间外 | 4.03 → 3.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.7% | -20.8% | 区间外 | 4.33 → 3.43 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 3.59 → 3.58 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +5.3% | 区间外 | 3.40 → 3.58 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 3.53 → 3.58 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 3.49 → 3.58 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +4.7% | 区间外 | 3.42 → 3.58 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +5.6% | 区间内 | 3.39 → 3.58 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +5.3% | 区间外 | 3.40 → 3.58 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 3.75 → 3.58 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 3.72 → 3.58 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 3.66 → 3.58 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 3.67 → 3.58 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 3.63 → 3.58 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 3.58 → 3.58 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 3.61 → 3.58 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 3.69 → 3.58 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 3.69 → 3.58 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 3.59 → 3.58 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 3.71 → 3.58 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 3.81 → 3.58 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 3.81 → 3.58 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 3.81 → 3.58 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -7.2% | 区间内 | 3.86 → 3.58 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -7.7% | 区间内 | 3.88 → 3.58 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.8% | -11.2% | 区间内 | 4.03 → 3.58 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.4% | -17.3% | 区间外 | 4.33 → 3.58 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 3.39 → 3.37 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 3.40 → 3.37 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -10.1% | 区间外 | 3.75 → 3.37 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -9.4% | 区间外 | 3.72 → 3.37 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 3.66 → 3.37 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 3.67 → 3.37 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -7.2% | 区间内 | 3.63 → 3.37 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.