NFLX historial de movimiento esperado Netflix, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango23%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado23%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.6%
Error medio abs.3.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 70.49 | ±0.8% | 69.93–71.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 70.59 | ±2.2% | 69.03–72.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 70.36 | ±2.5% | 68.63–72.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 70.30 | ±3.1% | 68.15–72.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 71.62 | ±3.7% | 68.99–74.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 69.66 | ±3.8% | 66.98–72.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 68.89 | ±4.1% | 66.07–71.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 67.49 | ±4.4% | 64.55–70.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 67.12 | ±4.6% | 64.01–70.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 67.96 | ±5.0% | 64.59–71.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 72.27 | ±6.5% | 67.55–76.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 72.20 | ±6.5% | 67.51–76.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 73.43 | ±6.8% | 68.47–78.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 72.03 | ±7.1% | 66.93–77.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 75.51 | ±7.2% | 70.04–80.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 76.57 | ±7.8% | 70.59–82.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 77.91 | ±7.8% | 71.87–83.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 80.13 | ±8.0% | 73.69–86.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 77.31 | ±8.5% | 70.71–83.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 76.04 | ±8.8% | 69.33–82.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 76.20 | ±9.0% | 69.31–83.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 76.70 | ±9.3% | 69.60–83.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 78.32 | ±9.7% | 70.72–85.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 78.33 | ±9.7% | 70.73–85.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 82.36 | ±9.4% | 74.58–90.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 82.26 | ±9.7% | 74.28–90.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 80.47 | ±9.8% | 72.58–88.38 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 81.00 | ±9.9% | 72.98–89.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 70.49 | ±9.4% | 63.86–77.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 70.59 | ±9.1% | 64.14–77.04 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 70.30 → 70.30 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | -1.8% | fuera | 71.62 → 70.30 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +0.9% | dentro | 69.66 → 70.30 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +2.0% | dentro | 68.89 → 70.30 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +4.2% | fuera | 67.49 → 70.30 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +4.7% | fuera | 67.12 → 70.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +3.4% | dentro | 67.96 → 70.30 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 72.27 → 70.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -2.6% | dentro | 72.20 → 70.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -4.3% | dentro | 73.43 → 70.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -2.4% | dentro | 72.03 → 70.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -6.9% | fuera | 75.51 → 70.30 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -8.2% | fuera | 76.57 → 70.30 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -9.8% | fuera | 77.91 → 70.30 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -12.3% | fuera | 80.13 → 70.30 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -9.1% | fuera | 77.31 → 70.30 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -7.5% | fuera | 76.04 → 70.30 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -7.7% | fuera | 76.20 → 70.30 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -8.3% | fuera | 76.70 → 70.30 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -10.2% | fuera | 78.32 → 70.30 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -10.3% | fuera | 78.33 → 70.30 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -14.6% | fuera | 82.36 → 70.30 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -14.5% | fuera | 82.26 → 70.30 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -12.6% | fuera | 80.47 → 70.30 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -13.2% | fuera | 81.00 → 70.30 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 67.12 → 67.06 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.4% | -1.3% | dentro | 67.96 → 67.06 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -7.2% | fuera | 72.27 → 67.06 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -7.1% | fuera | 72.20 → 67.06 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -8.7% | fuera | 73.43 → 67.06 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -6.9% | fuera | 72.03 → 67.06 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -11.2% | fuera | 75.51 → 67.06 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -12.4% | fuera | 76.57 → 67.06 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -13.9% | fuera | 77.91 → 67.06 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -16.3% | fuera | 80.13 → 67.06 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -13.3% | fuera | 77.31 → 67.06 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -11.8% | fuera | 76.04 → 67.06 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -12.0% | fuera | 76.20 → 67.06 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -12.6% | fuera | 76.70 → 67.06 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -14.4% | fuera | 78.32 → 67.06 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -14.4% | fuera | 78.33 → 67.06 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -18.6% | fuera | 82.36 → 67.06 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -18.5% | fuera | 82.26 → 67.06 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -16.7% | fuera | 80.47 → 67.06 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -17.2% | fuera | 81.00 → 67.06 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | -1.5% | dentro | 72.27 → 71.15 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | -1.5% | dentro | 72.20 → 71.15 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -3.1% | fuera | 73.43 → 71.15 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -1.2% | dentro | 72.03 → 71.15 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -5.8% | fuera | 75.51 → 71.15 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | -7.1% | fuera | 76.57 → 71.15 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -8.7% | fuera | 77.91 → 71.15 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -11.2% | fuera | 80.13 → 71.15 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -8.0% | fuera | 77.31 → 71.15 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -6.4% | fuera | 76.04 → 71.15 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -6.6% | fuera | 76.20 → 71.15 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | -7.2% | fuera | 76.70 → 71.15 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -9.2% | fuera | 78.32 → 71.15 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -9.2% | fuera | 78.33 → 71.15 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.0% | -13.6% | fuera | 82.36 → 71.15 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.