NET historial de movimiento esperado Cloudflare, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango46%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado46%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio10.2%
Error medio abs.5.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 296.16 | ±0.6% | 294.29–298.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 323.42 | ±3.9% | 310.92–335.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 349.47 | ±4.3% | 334.30–364.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 360.62 | ±5.5% | 340.85–380.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 341.51 | ±6.1% | 320.61–362.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 342.14 | ±6.3% | 320.67–363.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 355.81 | ±6.9% | 331.31–380.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 359.49 | ±7.3% | 333.19–385.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 348.00 | ±8.3% | 319.27–376.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 351.66 | ±9.0% | 319.91–383.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 353.60 | ±11.7% | 312.35–394.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 354.57 | ±11.9% | 312.30–396.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 351.50 | ±12.7% | 306.75–396.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 322.67 | ±11.8% | 284.71–360.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 333.29 | ±12.0% | 293.29–373.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 324.43 | ±12.8% | 282.98–365.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 327.30 | ±13.3% | 283.62–370.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 329.99 | ±13.6% | 285.21–374.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 305.23 | ±13.5% | 264.08–346.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 311.93 | ±14.0% | 268.25–355.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 314.00 | ±15.1% | 266.50–361.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 284.36 | ±14.7% | 242.53–326.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 278.92 | ±14.4% | 238.82–319.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 283.47 | ±14.4% | 242.52–324.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 282.38 | ±14.8% | 240.66–324.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 281.36 | ±15.4% | 237.94–324.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 286.00 | ±15.5% | 241.72–330.27 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 306.01 | ±15.3% | 259.08–352.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 296.16 | ±7.3% | 274.69–317.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 323.42 | ±7.1% | 300.50–346.35 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.1% | dentro | 360.62 → 360.93 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +5.7% | fuera | 341.51 → 360.93 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +5.5% | fuera | 342.14 → 360.93 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +1.4% | dentro | 355.81 → 360.93 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +0.4% | dentro | 359.49 → 360.93 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +3.7% | dentro | 348.00 → 360.93 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +2.6% | dentro | 351.66 → 360.93 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +2.1% | dentro | 353.60 → 360.93 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +1.8% | dentro | 354.57 → 360.93 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +2.7% | dentro | 351.50 → 360.93 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +11.9% | fuera | 322.67 → 360.93 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +8.3% | dentro | 333.29 → 360.93 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +11.3% | fuera | 324.43 → 360.93 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +10.3% | dentro | 327.30 → 360.93 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +9.4% | dentro | 329.99 → 360.93 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +18.2% | fuera | 305.23 → 360.93 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +15.7% | fuera | 311.93 → 360.93 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | +14.9% | fuera | 314.00 → 360.93 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | +26.9% | fuera | 284.36 → 360.93 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | +29.4% | fuera | 278.92 → 360.93 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | +27.3% | fuera | 283.47 → 360.93 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.9% | +27.8% | fuera | 282.38 → 360.93 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | +28.3% | fuera | 281.36 → 360.93 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.0% | +26.2% | fuera | 286.00 → 360.93 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | +17.9% | fuera | 306.01 → 360.93 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 348.00 → 349.07 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 351.66 → 349.07 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -1.3% | dentro | 353.60 → 349.07 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -1.6% | dentro | 354.57 → 349.07 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -0.7% | dentro | 351.50 → 349.07 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | +8.2% | dentro | 322.67 → 349.07 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | +4.7% | dentro | 333.29 → 349.07 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | +7.6% | dentro | 324.43 → 349.07 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.1% | +6.7% | dentro | 327.30 → 349.07 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | +5.8% | dentro | 329.99 → 349.07 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.2% | +14.4% | fuera | 305.23 → 349.07 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | +11.9% | fuera | 311.93 → 349.07 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.6% | +11.2% | dentro | 314.00 → 349.07 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.7% | +22.8% | fuera | 284.36 → 349.07 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.6% | +25.2% | fuera | 278.92 → 349.07 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.0% | +23.1% | fuera | 283.47 → 349.07 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.3% | +23.6% | fuera | 282.38 → 349.07 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.0% | +24.1% | fuera | 281.36 → 349.07 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.5% | +22.1% | fuera | 286.00 → 349.07 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.6% | +14.1% | fuera | 306.01 → 349.07 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -1.3% | dentro | 353.60 → 349.02 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -1.6% | dentro | 354.57 → 349.02 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -0.7% | dentro | 351.50 → 349.02 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | +8.2% | fuera | 322.67 → 349.02 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.0% | +4.7% | dentro | 333.29 → 349.02 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.9% | +7.6% | fuera | 324.43 → 349.02 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | +6.6% | dentro | 327.30 → 349.02 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.4% | +5.8% | dentro | 329.99 → 349.02 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | +14.3% | fuera | 305.23 → 349.02 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.2% | +11.9% | fuera | 311.93 → 349.02 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.1% | +11.2% | fuera | 314.00 → 349.02 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.9% | +22.7% | fuera | 284.36 → 349.02 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.2% | +25.1% | fuera | 278.92 → 349.02 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.3% | +23.1% | fuera | 283.47 → 349.02 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.6% | +23.6% | fuera | 282.38 → 349.02 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.