NEM historial de movimiento esperado Newmont Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango86%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado86%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.3%
Error medio abs.2.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 118.01 | ±5.3% | 111.80–124.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 118.62 | ±5.6% | 112.03–125.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 111.35 | ±6.3% | 104.30–118.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 115.59 | ±6.2% | 108.44–122.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 118.12 | ±6.9% | 109.92–126.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 115.55 | ±7.3% | 107.08–124.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 113.46 | ±7.6% | 104.89–122.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 116.39 | ±7.8% | 107.27–125.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 116.16 | ±7.5% | 107.48–124.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 115.56 | ±7.8% | 106.58–124.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 114.65 | ±8.4% | 104.97–124.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 127.51 | ±10.4% | 114.31–140.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 127.08 | ±10.2% | 114.06–140.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 122.98 | ±10.6% | 109.98–135.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 123.47 | ±10.6% | 110.34–136.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 124.70 | ±10.9% | 111.08–138.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 121.60 | ±11.1% | 108.12–135.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 124.19 | ±11.4% | 110.02–138.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 123.07 | ±11.6% | 108.84–137.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 126.65 | ±11.7% | 111.78–141.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 126.23 | ±12.9% | 109.98–142.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 128.97 | ±12.3% | 113.07–144.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 127.26 | ±12.7% | 111.14–143.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 128.20 | ±12.7% | 111.88–144.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 128.33 | ±13.0% | 111.66–145.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 130.44 | ±13.0% | 113.49–147.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 118.01 | ±7.1% | 109.61–126.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 118.62 | ±7.3% | 109.94–127.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 111.35 | ±7.6% | 102.88–119.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 115.59 | ±7.2% | 107.24–123.94 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | -0.0% | dentro | 118.62 → 118.60 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +6.5% | fuera | 111.35 → 118.60 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +2.6% | dentro | 115.59 → 118.60 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +0.4% | dentro | 118.12 → 118.60 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +2.6% | dentro | 115.55 → 118.60 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +4.5% | dentro | 113.46 → 118.60 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +1.9% | dentro | 116.39 → 118.60 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +2.1% | dentro | 116.16 → 118.60 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +2.6% | dentro | 115.56 → 118.60 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +3.4% | dentro | 114.65 → 118.60 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -7.0% | dentro | 127.51 → 118.60 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -6.7% | dentro | 127.08 → 118.60 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -3.6% | dentro | 122.98 → 118.60 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -3.9% | dentro | 123.47 → 118.60 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -4.9% | dentro | 124.70 → 118.60 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -2.5% | dentro | 121.60 → 118.60 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -4.5% | dentro | 124.19 → 118.60 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -3.6% | dentro | 123.07 → 118.60 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -6.4% | dentro | 126.65 → 118.60 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -6.0% | dentro | 126.23 → 118.60 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -8.0% | dentro | 128.97 → 118.60 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -6.8% | dentro | 127.26 → 118.60 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -7.5% | dentro | 128.20 → 118.60 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -7.6% | dentro | 128.33 → 118.60 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -9.1% | dentro | 130.44 → 118.60 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -5.6% | dentro | 125.66 → 118.60 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -3.2% | dentro | 122.50 → 118.60 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -5.7% | dentro | 125.80 → 118.60 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | -0.2% | dentro | 118.12 → 117.84 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +2.0% | fuera | 115.55 → 117.84 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.9% | fuera | 113.46 → 117.84 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +1.2% | dentro | 116.39 → 117.84 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +1.4% | dentro | 116.16 → 117.84 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.0% | dentro | 115.56 → 117.84 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +2.8% | dentro | 114.65 → 117.84 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -7.6% | fuera | 127.51 → 117.84 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -7.3% | dentro | 127.08 → 117.84 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -4.2% | dentro | 122.98 → 117.84 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -4.6% | dentro | 123.47 → 117.84 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -5.5% | dentro | 124.70 → 117.84 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -3.1% | dentro | 121.60 → 117.84 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -5.1% | dentro | 124.19 → 117.84 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -4.2% | dentro | 123.07 → 117.84 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -7.0% | dentro | 126.65 → 117.84 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -6.7% | dentro | 126.23 → 117.84 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -8.6% | dentro | 128.97 → 117.84 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -7.4% | dentro | 127.26 → 117.84 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -8.1% | dentro | 128.20 → 117.84 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -8.2% | dentro | 128.33 → 117.84 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -9.7% | dentro | 130.44 → 117.84 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -6.2% | dentro | 125.66 → 117.84 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -3.8% | dentro | 122.50 → 117.84 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -6.3% | dentro | 125.80 → 117.84 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 115.56 → 115.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | +0.8% | dentro | 114.65 → 115.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -9.4% | fuera | 127.51 → 115.56 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -9.1% | fuera | 127.08 → 115.56 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -6.0% | dentro | 122.98 → 115.56 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -6.4% | fuera | 123.47 → 115.56 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -7.3% | fuera | 124.70 → 115.56 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.