MSTR 预期波动历史 Strategy Inc
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内51%
|实际值| 低于预期值51%
平均预期波动幅度±11.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度11.8%
平均绝对误差6.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 136.25 | ±6.3% | 127.60–144.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 137.00 | ±8.1% | 125.85–148.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 143.47 | ±8.9% | 130.77–156.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 152.46 | ±8.6% | 139.41–165.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 154.87 | ±9.0% | 140.87–168.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 151.60 | ±9.8% | 136.72–166.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 154.00 | ±10.2% | 138.35–169.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 164.80 | ±10.4% | 147.62–181.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 164.61 | ±10.9% | 146.74–182.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 160.17 | ±11.4% | 141.92–178.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 159.90 | ±12.6% | 139.82–179.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 167.95 | ±16.5% | 140.25–195.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 167.05 | ±16.2% | 139.95–194.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 169.41 | ±17.6% | 139.56–199.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 153.00 | ±17.2% | 126.62–179.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 132.08 | ±16.4% | 110.43–153.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 127.00 | ±17.2% | 105.15–148.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 128.41 | ±18.4% | 104.84–151.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 136.31 | ±18.8% | 110.64–161.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 131.26 | ±18.8% | 106.64–155.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 128.90 | ±19.5% | 103.72–154.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 133.29 | ±20.9% | 105.44–161.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 136.90 | ±21.1% | 108.05–165.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 142.58 | ±21.8% | 111.55–173.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 142.65 | ±21.7% | 111.63–173.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 145.51 | ±22.2% | 113.26–177.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 136.25 | ±10.2% | 122.40–150.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 137.00 | ±11.8% | 120.80–153.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 143.47 | ±12.0% | 126.27–160.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 152.46 | ±11.5% | 134.88–170.03 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 137.00 → 136.83 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -4.6% | 区间内 | 143.47 → 136.83 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -10.2% | 区间外 | 152.46 → 136.83 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -11.6% | 区间外 | 154.87 → 136.83 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -9.7% | 区间外 | 151.60 → 136.83 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -11.1% | 区间外 | 154.00 → 136.83 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -17.0% | 区间外 | 164.80 → 136.83 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -16.9% | 区间外 | 164.61 → 136.83 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -14.6% | 区间外 | 160.17 → 136.83 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -14.4% | 区间外 | 159.90 → 136.83 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | -18.5% | 区间外 | 167.95 → 136.83 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | -18.1% | 区间外 | 167.05 → 136.83 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.7% | -19.2% | 区间外 | 169.41 → 136.83 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.5% | -10.6% | 区间内 | 153.00 → 136.83 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.6% | +3.6% | 区间内 | 132.08 → 136.83 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | +7.7% | 区间内 | 127.00 → 136.83 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 128.41 → 136.83 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 136.31 → 136.83 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 131.26 → 136.83 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.9% | +6.2% | 区间内 | 128.90 → 136.83 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.6% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 133.29 → 136.83 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.9% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 136.90 → 136.83 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.2% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 142.58 → 136.83 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.2% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 142.65 → 136.83 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.9% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 145.51 → 136.83 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.2% | +11.0% | 区间内 | 123.28 → 136.83 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.6% | +10.1% | 区间内 | 124.27 → 136.83 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.2% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 133.10 → 136.83 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 154.87 → 154.34 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 151.60 → 154.34 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 154.00 → 154.34 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -6.3% | 区间外 | 164.80 → 154.34 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 164.61 → 154.34 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 160.17 → 154.34 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 159.90 → 154.34 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -8.1% | 区间内 | 167.95 → 154.34 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -7.6% | 区间内 | 167.05 → 154.34 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -8.9% | 区间内 | 169.41 → 154.34 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 153.00 → 154.34 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +16.9% | 区间外 | 132.08 → 154.34 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +21.5% | 区间外 | 127.00 → 154.34 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.6% | +20.2% | 区间外 | 128.41 → 154.34 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.0% | +13.2% | 区间内 | 136.31 → 154.34 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | +17.6% | 区间外 | 131.26 → 154.34 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | +19.7% | 区间外 | 128.90 → 154.34 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | +15.8% | 区间内 | 133.29 → 154.34 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | +12.7% | 区间内 | 136.90 → 154.34 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.2% | +8.2% | 区间内 | 142.58 → 154.34 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.2% | +8.2% | 区间内 | 142.65 → 154.34 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.2% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 145.51 → 154.34 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | +25.2% | 区间外 | 123.28 → 154.34 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.8% | +24.2% | 区间外 | 124.27 → 154.34 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.2% | +16.0% | 区间内 | 133.10 → 154.34 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 160.17 → 160.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 159.90 → 160.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.4% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 167.95 → 160.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 167.05 → 160.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.9% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 169.41 → 160.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.8% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 153.00 → 160.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | +21.1% | 区间外 | 132.08 → 160.01 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.