MSTR histórico de movimento esperado Strategy Inc
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo48%
|Real| abaixo do esperado48%
Movimento esperado médio±10.4%
Movimento |real| médio12.7%
Erro médio absoluto6.0pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 137.00 | ±0.7% | 136.08–137.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 143.47 | ±5.1% | 136.12–150.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 152.46 | ±5.3% | 144.33–160.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 154.87 | ±6.4% | 144.92–164.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 151.60 | ±7.3% | 140.53–162.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 154.00 | ±7.8% | 142.05–165.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 164.80 | ±8.1% | 151.50–178.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 164.61 | ±8.5% | 150.61–178.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 160.17 | ±9.3% | 145.25–175.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 159.90 | ±10.3% | 143.35–176.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 167.95 | ±14.4% | 143.80–192.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 167.05 | ±14.5% | 142.90–191.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 169.41 | ±15.7% | 142.74–196.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 153.00 | ±15.5% | 129.22–176.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 132.08 | ±14.6% | 112.78–151.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 127.00 | ±15.4% | 107.40–146.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 128.41 | ±16.7% | 106.91–149.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 136.31 | ±17.0% | 113.19–159.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 131.26 | ±17.0% | 109.01–153.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 128.90 | ±17.9% | 105.83–151.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 133.29 | ±18.6% | 108.44–158.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 136.90 | ±18.9% | 110.97–162.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 142.58 | ±20.2% | 113.75–171.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 142.65 | ±20.2% | 113.83–171.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 145.51 | ±20.9% | 115.08–175.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 123.28 | ±19.2% | 99.58–146.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 124.27 | ±19.6% | 99.97–148.57 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 133.10 | ±20.2% | 106.22–159.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 137.00 | ±8.1% | 125.85–148.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 143.47 | ±8.9% | 130.77–156.17 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 154.87 → 154.34 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +1.8% | dentro | 151.60 → 154.34 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +0.2% | dentro | 154.00 → 154.34 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -6.3% | fora | 164.80 → 154.34 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -6.2% | fora | 164.61 → 154.34 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -3.6% | dentro | 160.17 → 154.34 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -3.5% | dentro | 159.90 → 154.34 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -8.1% | dentro | 167.95 → 154.34 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -7.6% | dentro | 167.05 → 154.34 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -8.9% | dentro | 169.41 → 154.34 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | +0.9% | dentro | 153.00 → 154.34 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +16.9% | fora | 132.08 → 154.34 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +21.5% | fora | 127.00 → 154.34 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.6% | +20.2% | fora | 128.41 → 154.34 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.0% | +13.2% | dentro | 136.31 → 154.34 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | +17.6% | fora | 131.26 → 154.34 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | +19.7% | fora | 128.90 → 154.34 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | +15.8% | dentro | 133.29 → 154.34 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | +12.7% | dentro | 136.90 → 154.34 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.2% | +8.2% | dentro | 142.58 → 154.34 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.2% | +8.2% | dentro | 142.65 → 154.34 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.2% | +6.1% | dentro | 145.51 → 154.34 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | +25.2% | fora | 123.28 → 154.34 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.8% | +24.2% | fora | 124.27 → 154.34 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.2% | +16.0% | dentro | 133.10 → 154.34 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 160.17 → 160.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 159.90 → 160.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.4% | -4.7% | dentro | 167.95 → 160.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | -4.2% | dentro | 167.05 → 160.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.9% | -5.5% | dentro | 169.41 → 160.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.8% | +4.6% | dentro | 153.00 → 160.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | +21.1% | fora | 132.08 → 160.01 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | +26.0% | fora | 127.00 → 160.01 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.5% | +24.6% | fora | 128.41 → 160.01 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | +17.4% | fora | 136.31 → 160.01 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.9% | +21.9% | fora | 131.26 → 160.01 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.8% | +24.1% | fora | 128.90 → 160.01 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.5% | +20.0% | fora | 133.29 → 160.01 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.2% | +16.9% | fora | 136.90 → 160.01 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.1% | +12.2% | dentro | 142.58 → 160.01 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.1% | +12.2% | dentro | 142.65 → 160.01 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.2% | +10.0% | dentro | 145.51 → 160.01 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.4% | +29.8% | fora | 123.28 → 160.01 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.9% | +28.8% | fora | 124.27 → 160.01 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.4% | +20.2% | fora | 133.10 → 160.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | -5.6% | dentro | 167.95 → 158.61 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | -5.1% | dentro | 167.05 → 158.61 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.4% | -6.4% | dentro | 169.41 → 158.61 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | +3.7% | dentro | 153.00 → 158.61 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.7% | +20.1% | fora | 132.08 → 158.61 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.7% | +24.9% | fora | 127.00 → 158.61 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.9% | +23.5% | fora | 128.41 → 158.61 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.4% | +16.4% | fora | 136.31 → 158.61 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.5% | +20.8% | fora | 131.26 → 158.61 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.4% | +23.0% | fora | 128.90 → 158.61 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.2% | +19.0% | fora | 133.29 → 158.61 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.9% | +15.9% | fora | 136.90 → 158.61 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.9% | +11.2% | dentro | 142.58 → 158.61 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.9% | +11.2% | dentro | 142.65 → 158.61 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±15.2% | +9.0% | dentro | 145.51 → 158.61 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.