MSFT 预期波动历史 Microsoft Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项200
收盘价处于区间内62%
|实际值| 低于预期值62%
平均预期波动幅度±3.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度2.9%
平均绝对误差1.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 532.45 | ±0.2% | 531.22–533.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 527.92 | ±1.4% | 520.60–535.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 532.67 | ±2.2% | 521.14–544.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 543.58 | ±2.2% | 531.48–555.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 534.75 | ±2.8% | 519.55–549.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 522.71 | ±3.3% | 505.41–540.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 529.62 | ±3.2% | 512.60–546.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 529.32 | ±3.5% | 510.89–547.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 524.73 | ±3.8% | 504.81–544.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 532.45 | ±1.6% | 524.10–540.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 527.92 | ±2.3% | 515.89–539.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 532.67 | ±2.8% | 518.00–547.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 543.58 | ±2.7% | 529.05–558.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 534.75 | ±3.3% | 517.25–552.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 522.71 | ±3.6% | 503.79–541.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 529.62 | ±3.6% | 510.37–548.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 529.32 | ±3.8% | 509.05–549.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 532.45 | ±2.3% | 520.40–544.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 527.92 | ±2.9% | 512.37–543.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 532.67 | ±3.1% | 516.17–549.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 543.58 | ±3.2% | 526.43–560.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 534.75 | ±3.6% | 515.50–554.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 522.71 | ±4.0% | 501.79–543.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 529.62 | ±4.0% | 508.30–550.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 529.32 | ±4.2% | 507.35–551.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 524.73 | ±4.4% | 501.51–547.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 517.45 | ±4.6% | 493.60–541.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 513.64 | ±4.9% | 488.37–538.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 501.48 | ±5.9% | 472.13–530.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 497.80 | ±5.9% | 468.45–527.15 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 527.92 → 529.05 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 532.67 → 529.05 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | -2.7% | 区间外 | 543.58 → 529.05 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 534.75 → 529.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 522.71 → 529.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 529.62 → 529.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 529.32 → 529.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 524.73 → 529.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 517.45 → 529.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 513.64 → 529.05 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +5.5% | 区间外 | 501.48 → 529.05 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 497.80 → 529.05 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +5.5% | 区间外 | 501.41 → 529.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +6.9% | 区间外 | 495.12 → 529.05 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +6.6% | 区间外 | 496.40 → 529.05 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +7.8% | 区间外 | 490.89 → 529.05 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +6.4% | 区间外 | 497.41 → 529.05 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 504.82 → 529.05 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +6.8% | 区间外 | 495.20 → 529.05 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +7.9% | 区间外 | 490.10 → 529.05 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 492.02 → 529.05 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +7.2% | 区间外 | 493.57 → 529.05 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 499.41 → 529.05 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 499.34 → 529.05 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 509.58 → 529.05 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +6.3% | 区间内 | 497.66 → 529.05 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +5.5% | 区间内 | 501.31 → 529.05 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 507.47 → 529.05 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.3% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 532.67 → 533.69 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.1% | -1.8% | 区间外 | 543.58 → 533.69 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.0% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 534.75 → 533.69 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.5% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 522.71 → 533.69 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 529.62 → 533.69 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 529.32 → 533.69 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 524.73 → 533.69 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 517.45 → 533.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | +3.9% | 区间外 | 513.64 → 533.69 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.1% | +1.2% | 区间外 | 534.75 → 541.15 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | +3.5% | 区间外 | 522.71 → 541.15 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.0% | +2.2% | 区间外 | 529.62 → 541.15 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.2% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 529.32 → 541.15 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.7% | +3.1% | 区间外 | 524.73 → 541.15 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.9% | +4.6% | 区间外 | 517.45 → 541.15 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.4% | +5.4% | 区间外 | 513.64 → 541.15 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.1% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 534.75 → 535.07 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +2.4% | 区间外 | 522.71 → 535.07 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 529.62 → 535.07 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 529.32 → 535.07 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 524.73 → 535.07 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +3.4% | 区间外 | 517.45 → 535.07 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +4.2% | 区间外 | 513.64 → 535.07 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +6.7% | 区间外 | 501.48 → 535.07 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 497.80 → 535.07 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +6.7% | 区间外 | 501.41 → 535.07 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +8.1% | 区间外 | 495.12 → 535.07 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +7.8% | 区间外 | 496.40 → 535.07 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +9.0% | 区间外 | 490.89 → 535.07 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +7.6% | 区间外 | 497.41 → 535.07 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +6.0% | 区间外 | 504.82 → 535.07 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +8.1% | 区间外 | 495.20 → 535.07 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.