MSFT 预期波动历史 Microsoft Corporation

每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026

已解决的比较项1

收盘价处于区间内100%

|实际值| 低于预期值100%

平均预期波动幅度±0.2%

平均|实际|波动幅度0.0%

平均绝对误差0.1pt

隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日

每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。

预期（已记录）实际

已记录（等待结果）

快照	到期时间	DTE	当时现货价	预期涨跌幅	区间	方法
Sep 02	Sep 02	0	497.66	±0.2%	496.55–498.77	em-1.0
Sep 01	Sep 02	1	501.31	±1.1%	495.91–506.71	em-1.0
Aug 31	Sep 02	2	507.47	±1.5%	499.75–515.20	em-1.0
Sep 02	Sep 04	2	497.66	±1.5%	490.06–505.26	em-1.0
Sep 01	Sep 04	3	501.31	±1.9%	491.69–510.94	em-1.0
Aug 31	Sep 04	4	507.47	±2.3%	496.00–518.95	em-1.0
Sep 02	Sep 09	7	497.66	±2.4%	485.79–509.54	em-1.0
Sep 01	Sep 09	8	501.31	±2.6%	488.33–514.28	em-1.0
Aug 31	Sep 09	9	507.47	±2.9%	492.82–522.12	em-1.0
Sep 02	Sep 11	9	497.66	±2.9%	482.99–512.34	em-1.0
Sep 01	Sep 11	10	501.31	±3.2%	485.49–517.13	em-1.0
Aug 31	Sep 11	11	507.47	±3.2%	491.02–523.92	em-1.0
Sep 02	Sep 14	12	497.66	±3.3%	481.04–514.29	em-1.0
Sep 01	Sep 14	13	501.31	±3.4%	484.26–518.36	em-1.0
Aug 31	Sep 14	14	507.47	±3.5%	489.75–525.20	em-1.0
Sep 02	Sep 16	14	497.66	±3.6%	479.79–515.54	em-1.0
Sep 01	Sep 16	15	501.31	±3.7%	482.54–520.09	em-1.0
Sep 02	Sep 18	16	497.66	±4.0%	477.99–517.34	em-1.0
Sep 01	Sep 18	17	501.31	±4.1%	480.74–521.88	em-1.0
Aug 31	Sep 18	18	507.47	±4.2%	485.92–529.02	em-1.0
Sep 02	Sep 25	23	497.66	±4.7%	474.04–521.29	em-1.0
Sep 01	Sep 25	24	501.31	±5.0%	476.49–526.13	em-1.0
Aug 31	Sep 25	25	507.47	±5.1%	481.60–533.35	em-1.0
Sep 02	Oct 02	30	497.66	±5.6%	469.69–525.64	em-1.0
Sep 01	Oct 02	31	501.31	±5.7%	472.94–529.68	em-1.0
Aug 31	Oct 02	32	507.47	±5.8%	478.07–536.87	em-1.0
Sep 02	Oct 09	37	497.66	±6.1%	467.09–528.24	em-1.0
Sep 01	Oct 09	38	501.31	±6.4%	469.26–533.36	em-1.0
Aug 31	Oct 09	39	507.47	±6.5%	474.50–540.45	em-1.0
Sep 02	Oct 16	44	497.66	±6.9%	463.51–531.81	em-1.0

快照	已到期	预期值	实际值	在区间内？	现货价 → 收盘价
Aug 31, 2026	Aug 31	±0.2%	-0.0%	区间内	507.47 → 507.29

结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.