MSFT historial de movimiento esperado Microsoft Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas192
Cierre dentro del rango65%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado65%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.6%
Error medio abs.1.2pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 527.92 | ±0.4% | 526.00–529.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 532.67 | ±1.7% | 523.52–541.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 543.58 | ±1.9% | 533.40–553.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 534.75 | ±2.5% | 521.17–548.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 522.71 | ±3.0% | 507.06–538.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 529.62 | ±3.0% | 513.47–545.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 529.32 | ±3.2% | 512.22–546.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 524.73 | ±3.5% | 506.28–543.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 517.45 | ±3.7% | 498.27–536.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 513.64 | ±4.1% | 492.46–534.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 501.48 | ±5.1% | 475.95–527.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 497.80 | ±5.1% | 472.30–523.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 501.41 | ±5.3% | 474.69–528.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 495.12 | ±5.3% | 468.98–521.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 496.40 | ±5.5% | 469.25–523.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 490.89 | ±5.9% | 462.14–519.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 497.41 | ±5.9% | 468.19–526.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 504.82 | ±5.9% | 474.82–534.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 495.20 | ±6.0% | 465.73–524.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 490.10 | ±6.6% | 457.75–522.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 492.02 | ±6.7% | 459.27–524.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 493.57 | ±6.6% | 460.77–526.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 499.41 | ±6.7% | 466.16–532.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 499.34 | ±6.7% | 466.09–532.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 509.58 | ±6.7% | 475.20–543.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 497.66 | ±6.9% | 463.51–531.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 501.31 | ±7.1% | 465.81–536.81 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 507.47 | ±7.2% | 470.94–544.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 527.92 | ±1.4% | 520.60–535.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 532.67 | ±2.2% | 521.14–544.20 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.3% | +0.2% | dentro | 532.67 → 533.69 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.1% | -1.8% | fuera | 543.58 → 533.69 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 534.75 → 533.69 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.5% | +2.1% | dentro | 522.71 → 533.69 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | +0.8% | dentro | 529.62 → 533.69 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | +0.8% | dentro | 529.32 → 533.69 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.1% | +1.7% | dentro | 524.73 → 533.69 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | +3.1% | dentro | 517.45 → 533.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | +3.9% | fuera | 513.64 → 533.69 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.1% | +1.2% | fuera | 534.75 → 541.15 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | +3.5% | fuera | 522.71 → 541.15 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.0% | +2.2% | fuera | 529.62 → 541.15 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.2% | +2.2% | dentro | 529.32 → 541.15 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.7% | +3.1% | fuera | 524.73 → 541.15 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.9% | +4.6% | fuera | 517.45 → 541.15 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.4% | +5.4% | fuera | 513.64 → 541.15 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 534.75 → 535.07 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +2.4% | fuera | 522.71 → 535.07 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +1.0% | dentro | 529.62 → 535.07 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +1.1% | dentro | 529.32 → 535.07 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.0% | dentro | 524.73 → 535.07 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +3.4% | fuera | 517.45 → 535.07 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +4.2% | fuera | 513.64 → 535.07 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +6.7% | fuera | 501.48 → 535.07 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +7.5% | fuera | 497.80 → 535.07 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +6.7% | fuera | 501.41 → 535.07 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +8.1% | fuera | 495.12 → 535.07 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +7.8% | fuera | 496.40 → 535.07 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +9.0% | fuera | 490.89 → 535.07 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +7.6% | fuera | 497.41 → 535.07 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +6.0% | fuera | 504.82 → 535.07 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +8.1% | fuera | 495.20 → 535.07 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +9.2% | fuera | 490.10 → 535.07 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +8.7% | fuera | 492.02 → 535.07 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +8.4% | fuera | 493.57 → 535.07 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +7.1% | fuera | 499.41 → 535.07 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +7.2% | fuera | 499.34 → 535.07 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +5.0% | dentro | 509.58 → 535.07 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +7.5% | fuera | 497.66 → 535.07 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +6.7% | fuera | 501.31 → 535.07 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +5.4% | dentro | 507.47 → 535.07 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 529.62 → 529.76 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 529.32 → 529.76 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.6% | +1.0% | dentro | 524.73 → 529.76 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.9% | +2.4% | fuera | 517.45 → 529.76 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±2.6% | +3.1% | fuera | 513.64 → 529.76 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 524.73 → 525.18 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±1.2% | +1.5% | fuera | 517.45 → 525.18 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±1.9% | +2.2% | fuera | 513.64 → 525.18 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±3.6% | +4.7% | fuera | 501.48 → 525.18 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±3.5% | +5.5% | fuera | 497.80 → 525.18 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±4.2% | +4.7% | fuera | 501.41 → 525.18 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 517.45 → 517.53 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 513.64 → 517.53 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +3.2% | dentro | 501.48 → 517.53 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +4.0% | fuera | 497.80 → 517.53 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | +3.2% | dentro | 501.41 → 517.53 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | +4.5% | fuera | 495.12 → 517.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | +4.3% | fuera | 496.40 → 517.53 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | +5.4% | fuera | 490.89 → 517.53 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.