MS riwayat pergerakan yang diperkirakan Morgan Stanley
Setiap hari perdagangan setelah penutupan, kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi — per expirasi, sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Ketika suatu expirasi berlalu, hasilnya ditulis di samping estimasi awal. Estimasi tidak pernah direvisi setelah fakta terjadi. Cara membaca statistik ini · merekam sejak Aug 31, 2026
Perbandingan terselesaikan121
Tutup dalam rentang34%
|Aktual| di bawah ekspektasi34%
Rata-rata pergerakan yang diperkirakan±4.9%
Rata-rata pergerakan |aktual|6.7%
Rata-rata kesalahan absolut2.6pt
Implied vs realized, per kedaluwarsa
Untuk setiap expirasi: garis tepi berwarna kuning adalah pergerakan yang diharapkan yang dicatat paling dekat dengan expirasi; batang padat adalah pergerakan saham yang sebenarnya terjadi. Nilai bertanda dicetak di bawah batang.
ekspektasi (direkam)aktual
Sedang dicatat (menunggu hasil)
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | DTE | Spot saat itu | Pergerakan yang diharapkan | Rentang | Metode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 178.83 | ±2.7% | 174.09–183.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 180.93 | ±3.4% | 174.78–187.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 181.56 | ±3.9% | 174.54–188.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 187.19 | ±4.9% | 178.09–196.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 190.46 | ±5.5% | 180.01–200.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 187.50 | ±5.7% | 176.82–198.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 190.20 | ±5.6% | 179.48–200.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 191.25 | ±5.9% | 179.96–202.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 190.35 | ±6.0% | 178.97–201.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 190.46 | ±6.6% | 177.91–203.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 188.15 | ±6.9% | 175.18–201.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 200.53 | ±7.9% | 184.60–216.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 200.99 | ±7.9% | 185.06–216.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 206.46 | ±7.9% | 190.06–222.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 202.22 | ±8.2% | 185.54–218.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 204.70 | ±8.3% | 187.75–221.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 201.52 | ±8.9% | 183.50–219.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 202.68 | ±9.0% | 184.45–220.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 206.90 | ±8.8% | 188.65–225.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 214.38 | ±8.6% | 196.03–232.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 212.66 | ±8.9% | 193.69–231.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 215.66 | ±9.1% | 196.00–235.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 216.32 | ±9.1% | 196.54–236.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 217.75 | ±9.2% | 197.70–237.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 217.75 | ±9.4% | 197.32–238.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 178.83 | ±4.4% | 170.88–186.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 180.93 | ±4.9% | 171.98–189.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 181.56 | ±5.2% | 172.21–190.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 187.19 | ±6.0% | 175.86–198.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 190.46 | ±6.4% | 178.19–202.74 | em-1.0 |
Snapshot yang telah diselesaikan
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | Diharapkan | Aktual | Dalam kisaran? | Spot → penutupan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | -0.2% | di dalam | 180.93 → 180.57 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -0.5% | di dalam | 181.56 → 180.57 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -3.5% | di dalam | 187.19 → 180.57 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -5.2% | di luar | 190.46 → 180.57 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -3.7% | di dalam | 187.50 → 180.57 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -5.1% | di luar | 190.20 → 180.57 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -5.6% | di luar | 191.25 → 180.57 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -5.1% | di luar | 190.35 → 180.57 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -5.2% | di dalam | 190.46 → 180.57 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -4.0% | di dalam | 188.15 → 180.57 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -10.0% | di luar | 200.53 → 180.57 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -10.2% | di luar | 200.99 → 180.57 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -12.5% | di luar | 206.46 → 180.57 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -10.7% | di luar | 202.22 → 180.57 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -11.8% | di luar | 204.70 → 180.57 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -10.4% | di luar | 201.52 → 180.57 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -10.9% | di luar | 202.68 → 180.57 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -12.7% | di luar | 206.90 → 180.57 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -15.8% | di luar | 214.38 → 180.57 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -15.1% | di luar | 212.66 → 180.57 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -16.3% | di luar | 215.66 → 180.57 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -16.5% | di luar | 216.32 → 180.57 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -17.1% | di luar | 217.75 → 180.57 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -17.1% | di luar | 217.75 → 180.57 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -14.7% | di luar | 211.74 → 180.57 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -14.6% | di luar | 211.47 → 180.57 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -14.5% | di luar | 211.12 → 180.57 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -15.5% | di luar | 213.66 → 180.57 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.2% | di luar | 190.46 → 190.02 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +1.3% | di dalam | 187.50 → 190.02 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | -0.1% | di dalam | 190.20 → 190.02 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -0.6% | di dalam | 191.25 → 190.02 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | -0.2% | di dalam | 190.35 → 190.02 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.2% | di dalam | 190.46 → 190.02 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +1.0% | di dalam | 188.15 → 190.02 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.2% | di luar | 200.53 → 190.02 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.5% | di luar | 200.99 → 190.02 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -8.0% | di luar | 206.46 → 190.02 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -6.0% | di luar | 202.22 → 190.02 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -7.2% | di luar | 204.70 → 190.02 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -5.7% | di dalam | 201.52 → 190.02 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -6.2% | di dalam | 202.68 → 190.02 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -8.2% | di luar | 206.90 → 190.02 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -11.4% | di luar | 214.38 → 190.02 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -10.6% | di luar | 212.66 → 190.02 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -11.9% | di luar | 215.66 → 190.02 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -12.2% | di luar | 216.32 → 190.02 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -12.7% | di luar | 217.75 → 190.02 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -12.7% | di luar | 217.75 → 190.02 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -10.3% | di luar | 211.74 → 190.02 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -10.1% | di luar | 211.47 → 190.02 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -10.0% | di luar | 211.12 → 190.02 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -11.1% | di luar | 213.66 → 190.02 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | di dalam | 190.46 → 190.31 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | +1.1% | di dalam | 188.15 → 190.31 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -5.1% | di luar | 200.53 → 190.31 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -5.3% | di luar | 200.99 → 190.31 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -7.8% | di luar | 206.46 → 190.31 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -5.9% | di luar | 202.22 → 190.31 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -7.0% | di luar | 204.70 → 190.31 |
Hasil membandingkan rentang yang tercatat dengan harga penutupan pada hari kedaluwarsa. Versi metode ditampilkan per baris jika berbeda; saat ini: em-1.0.