MRNA 预期波动历史 Moderna, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内28%
|实际值| 低于预期值28%
平均预期波动幅度±11.7%
平均|实际|波动幅度25.6%
平均绝对误差16.2pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 227.70 | ±9.6% | 205.80–249.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 217.70 | ±10.2% | 195.40–240.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 224.64 | ±11.3% | 199.29–249.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 215.00 | ±11.3% | 190.75–239.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 224.75 | ±13.5% | 194.50–255.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 196.00 | ±13.2% | 170.10–221.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 195.64 | ±13.4% | 169.41–221.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 188.27 | ±13.5% | 162.79–213.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 203.00 | ±14.4% | 173.78–232.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 189.58 | ±15.3% | 160.66–218.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 190.00 | ±15.6% | 160.45–219.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 182.33 | ±18.2% | 149.08–215.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 182.49 | ±18.2% | 149.24–215.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 172.70 | ±18.3% | 141.15–204.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 154.10 | ±17.4% | 127.33–180.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 157.92 | ±19.7% | 126.82–189.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 145.62 | ±18.6% | 118.50–172.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 143.75 | ±18.6% | 117.05–170.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 146.11 | ±19.0% | 118.31–173.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 144.50 | ±19.6% | 116.12–172.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 135.90 | ±19.3% | 109.70–162.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 135.96 | ±19.5% | 109.41–162.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 140.93 | ±20.2% | 112.48–169.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 145.00 | ±22.2% | 112.80–177.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 145.00 | ±22.2% | 112.80–177.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 147.40 | ±22.9% | 113.70–181.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 227.70 | ±21.6% | 178.55–276.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 217.70 | ±21.5% | 170.85–264.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 224.64 | ±21.1% | 177.19–272.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 215.00 | ±21.0% | 169.93–260.07 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 217.70 → 218.01 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 224.64 → 218.01 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 215.00 → 218.01 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 224.75 → 218.01 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +11.2% | 区间外 | 196.00 → 218.01 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | +11.4% | 区间外 | 195.64 → 218.01 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +15.8% | 区间外 | 188.27 → 218.01 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | +7.4% | 区间内 | 203.00 → 218.01 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +15.0% | 区间外 | 189.58 → 218.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +14.7% | 区间外 | 190.00 → 218.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | +19.6% | 区间外 | 182.33 → 218.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | +19.5% | 区间外 | 182.49 → 218.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | +26.2% | 区间外 | 172.70 → 218.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | +41.5% | 区间外 | 154.10 → 218.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | +38.0% | 区间外 | 157.92 → 218.01 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.2% | +49.7% | 区间外 | 145.62 → 218.01 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.6% | +51.7% | 区间外 | 143.75 → 218.01 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.1% | +49.2% | 区间外 | 146.11 → 218.01 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | +50.9% | 区间外 | 144.50 → 218.01 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | +60.4% | 区间外 | 135.90 → 218.01 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.4% | +60.4% | 区间外 | 135.96 → 218.01 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.5% | +54.7% | 区间外 | 140.93 → 218.01 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.9% | +50.4% | 区间外 | 145.00 → 218.01 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.9% | +50.4% | 区间外 | 145.00 → 218.01 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.8% | +47.9% | 区间外 | 147.40 → 218.01 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.8% | +45.0% | 区间外 | 150.30 → 218.01 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±22.2% | +43.6% | 区间外 | 151.86 → 218.01 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.3% | +57.1% | 区间外 | 138.80 → 218.01 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 224.75 → 225.00 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +14.8% | 区间外 | 196.00 → 225.00 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +15.0% | 区间外 | 195.64 → 225.00 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +19.5% | 区间外 | 188.27 → 225.00 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +10.8% | 区间外 | 203.00 → 225.00 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +18.7% | 区间外 | 189.58 → 225.00 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +18.4% | 区间外 | 190.00 → 225.00 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +23.4% | 区间外 | 182.33 → 225.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +23.3% | 区间外 | 182.49 → 225.00 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +30.3% | 区间外 | 172.70 → 225.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +46.0% | 区间外 | 154.10 → 225.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | +42.5% | 区间外 | 157.92 → 225.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.4% | +54.5% | 区间外 | 145.62 → 225.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.5% | +56.5% | 区间外 | 143.75 → 225.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.1% | +54.0% | 区间外 | 146.11 → 225.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.7% | +55.7% | 区间外 | 144.50 → 225.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.5% | +65.6% | 区间外 | 135.90 → 225.00 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.0% | +65.5% | 区间外 | 135.96 → 225.00 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.6% | +59.7% | 区间外 | 140.93 → 225.00 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.6% | +55.2% | 区间外 | 145.00 → 225.00 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.6% | +55.2% | 区间外 | 145.00 → 225.00 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.7% | +52.6% | 区间外 | 147.40 → 225.00 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.6% | +49.7% | 区间外 | 150.30 → 225.00 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.2% | +48.2% | 区间外 | 151.86 → 225.00 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.3% | +62.1% | 区间外 | 138.80 → 225.00 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 189.58 → 190.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 190.00 → 190.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 182.33 → 190.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 182.49 → 190.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.9% | +10.0% | 区间内 | 172.70 → 190.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.0% | +23.3% | 区间外 | 154.10 → 190.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | +20.3% | 区间外 | 157.92 → 190.01 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.