MP 预期波动历史 MP Materials Corp.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内62%
|实际值| 低于预期值62%
平均预期波动幅度±10.0%
平均|实际|波动幅度10.0%
平均绝对误差3.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 39.10 | ±5.5% | 36.96–41.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 40.22 | ±6.6% | 37.56–42.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 39.98 | ±7.5% | 36.98–42.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 42.53 | ±7.4% | 39.40–45.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 46.14 | ±8.0% | 42.45–49.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 46.25 | ±8.5% | 42.31–50.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 46.31 | ±8.9% | 42.20–50.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 48.57 | ±9.3% | 44.06–53.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 47.10 | ±9.4% | 42.66–51.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 47.00 | ±10.1% | 42.25–51.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 46.08 | ±10.3% | 41.33–50.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 51.00 | ±13.3% | 44.23–57.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 51.00 | ±13.3% | 44.23–57.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 50.13 | ±13.8% | 43.20–57.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 47.40 | ±13.4% | 41.02–53.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 49.63 | ±14.2% | 42.57–56.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 48.42 | ±15.8% | 40.75–56.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 49.84 | ±15.5% | 42.11–57.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 50.84 | ±15.9% | 42.74–58.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 50.62 | ±17.2% | 41.91–59.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 51.43 | ±18.7% | 41.83–61.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 54.44 | ±19.7% | 43.72–65.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 55.42 | ±18.1% | 45.37–65.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 54.46 | ±17.6% | 44.88–64.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 54.56 | ±17.9% | 44.80–64.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 53.69 | ±18.6% | 43.69–63.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 39.10 | ±8.5% | 35.76–42.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 40.22 | ±9.4% | 36.43–44.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 39.98 | ±10.2% | 35.91–44.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 42.53 | ±9.6% | 38.47–46.59 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 40.22 → 40.17 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 39.98 → 40.17 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 42.53 → 40.17 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -12.9% | 区间外 | 46.14 → 40.17 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -13.1% | 区间外 | 46.25 → 40.17 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -13.3% | 区间外 | 46.31 → 40.17 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -17.3% | 区间外 | 48.57 → 40.17 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -14.7% | 区间外 | 47.10 → 40.17 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -14.5% | 区间外 | 47.00 → 40.17 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -12.8% | 区间外 | 46.08 → 40.17 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -21.2% | 区间外 | 51.00 → 40.17 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -21.2% | 区间外 | 51.00 → 40.17 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -19.9% | 区间外 | 50.13 → 40.17 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -15.3% | 区间外 | 47.40 → 40.17 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -19.1% | 区间外 | 49.63 → 40.17 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | -17.0% | 区间外 | 48.42 → 40.17 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | -19.4% | 区间外 | 49.84 → 40.17 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.6% | -21.0% | 区间外 | 50.84 → 40.17 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -20.6% | 区间外 | 50.62 → 40.17 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.0% | -21.9% | 区间外 | 51.43 → 40.17 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.8% | -26.2% | 区间外 | 54.44 → 40.17 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.9% | -27.5% | 区间外 | 55.42 → 40.17 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.9% | -26.2% | 区间外 | 54.46 → 40.17 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.1% | -26.4% | 区间外 | 54.56 → 40.17 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.5% | -25.2% | 区间外 | 53.69 → 40.17 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.5% | -26.6% | 区间外 | 54.73 → 40.17 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.1% | -25.3% | 区间外 | 53.80 → 40.17 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.5% | -26.5% | 区间外 | 54.65 → 40.17 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 46.14 → 46.14 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 46.25 → 46.14 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 46.31 → 46.14 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -5.0% | 区间外 | 48.57 → 46.14 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 47.10 → 46.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 47.00 → 46.14 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 46.08 → 46.14 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -9.5% | 区间内 | 51.00 → 46.14 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -9.5% | 区间内 | 51.00 → 46.14 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -8.0% | 区间内 | 50.13 → 46.14 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 47.40 → 46.14 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 49.63 → 46.14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 48.42 → 46.14 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -7.4% | 区间内 | 49.84 → 46.14 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -9.2% | 区间内 | 50.84 → 46.14 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | -8.8% | 区间内 | 50.62 → 46.14 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.6% | -10.3% | 区间内 | 51.43 → 46.14 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.6% | -15.2% | 区间内 | 54.44 → 46.14 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.1% | -16.7% | 区间外 | 55.42 → 46.14 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.2% | -15.3% | 区间内 | 54.46 → 46.14 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | -15.4% | 区间内 | 54.56 → 46.14 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.8% | -14.1% | 区间内 | 53.69 → 46.14 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.7% | -15.7% | 区间内 | 54.73 → 46.14 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.1% | -14.2% | 区间内 | 53.80 → 46.14 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.5% | -15.6% | 区间内 | 54.65 → 46.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 47.00 → 46.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 46.08 → 46.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -7.9% | 区间内 | 51.00 → 46.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -7.9% | 区间内 | 51.00 → 46.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -6.3% | 区间内 | 50.13 → 46.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 47.40 → 46.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.7% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 49.63 → 46.97 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.