MP historial de movimiento esperado MP Materials Corp.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango78%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado78%
Movimiento esperado promedio±9.4%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.5%
Error medio abs.2.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 40.22 | ±0.8% | 39.91–40.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 39.98 | ±4.0% | 38.38–41.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 42.53 | ±4.3% | 40.68–44.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 46.14 | ±5.6% | 43.55–48.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 46.25 | ±6.2% | 43.38–49.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 46.31 | ±6.7% | 43.20–49.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 48.57 | ±7.1% | 45.12–52.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 47.10 | ±7.7% | 43.49–50.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 47.00 | ±8.6% | 42.94–51.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 46.08 | ±8.8% | 42.02–50.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 51.00 | ±12.3% | 44.71–57.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 51.00 | ±12.3% | 44.71–57.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 50.13 | ±12.2% | 44.01–56.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 47.40 | ±11.6% | 41.88–52.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 49.63 | ±13.4% | 42.98–56.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 48.42 | ±14.5% | 41.41–55.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 49.84 | ±14.4% | 42.63–57.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 50.84 | ±14.6% | 43.41–58.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 50.62 | ±15.1% | 42.99–58.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 51.43 | ±16.0% | 43.21–59.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 54.44 | ±16.8% | 45.29–63.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 55.42 | ±16.9% | 46.04–64.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 54.46 | ±16.9% | 45.24–63.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 54.56 | ±17.1% | 45.23–63.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 53.69 | ±17.5% | 44.29–63.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 54.73 | ±17.5% | 45.13–64.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 53.80 | ±18.1% | 44.05–63.55 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 54.65 | ±18.5% | 44.55–64.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 40.22 | ±6.6% | 37.56–42.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 39.98 | ±7.5% | 36.98–42.98 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 46.14 → 46.14 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 46.25 → 46.14 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -0.4% | dentro | 46.31 → 46.14 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -5.0% | fuera | 48.57 → 46.14 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -2.0% | dentro | 47.10 → 46.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -1.8% | dentro | 47.00 → 46.14 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +0.1% | dentro | 46.08 → 46.14 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -9.5% | dentro | 51.00 → 46.14 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -9.5% | dentro | 51.00 → 46.14 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -8.0% | dentro | 50.13 → 46.14 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 47.40 → 46.14 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -7.0% | dentro | 49.63 → 46.14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -4.7% | dentro | 48.42 → 46.14 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -7.4% | dentro | 49.84 → 46.14 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -9.2% | dentro | 50.84 → 46.14 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | -8.8% | dentro | 50.62 → 46.14 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.6% | -10.3% | dentro | 51.43 → 46.14 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.6% | -15.2% | dentro | 54.44 → 46.14 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.1% | -16.7% | fuera | 55.42 → 46.14 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.2% | -15.3% | dentro | 54.46 → 46.14 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | -15.4% | dentro | 54.56 → 46.14 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.8% | -14.1% | dentro | 53.69 → 46.14 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.7% | -15.7% | dentro | 54.73 → 46.14 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.1% | -14.2% | dentro | 53.80 → 46.14 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.5% | -15.6% | dentro | 54.65 → 46.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 47.00 → 46.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | +1.9% | dentro | 46.08 → 46.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -7.9% | dentro | 51.00 → 46.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -7.9% | dentro | 51.00 → 46.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -6.3% | dentro | 50.13 → 46.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -0.9% | dentro | 47.40 → 46.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.7% | -5.4% | dentro | 49.63 → 46.97 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.7% | -3.0% | dentro | 48.42 → 46.97 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.1% | -5.7% | dentro | 49.84 → 46.97 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | -7.6% | dentro | 50.84 → 46.97 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.1% | -7.2% | dentro | 50.62 → 46.97 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.9% | -8.7% | dentro | 51.43 → 46.97 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.2% | -13.7% | fuera | 54.44 → 46.97 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.2% | -15.2% | fuera | 55.42 → 46.97 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.9% | -13.8% | dentro | 54.46 → 46.97 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.4% | -13.9% | dentro | 54.56 → 46.97 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.1% | -12.5% | dentro | 53.69 → 46.97 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.8% | -14.2% | dentro | 54.73 → 46.97 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.3% | -12.7% | dentro | 53.80 → 46.97 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.7% | -14.1% | dentro | 54.65 → 46.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -4.3% | dentro | 51.00 → 48.83 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -4.3% | dentro | 51.00 → 48.83 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 50.13 → 48.83 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | +3.0% | dentro | 47.40 → 48.83 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.9% | -1.6% | dentro | 49.63 → 48.83 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.1% | +0.8% | dentro | 48.42 → 48.83 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.9% | -2.0% | dentro | 49.84 → 48.83 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.7% | -4.0% | dentro | 50.84 → 48.83 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 50.62 → 48.83 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.6% | -5.1% | dentro | 51.43 → 48.83 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.3% | -10.3% | dentro | 54.44 → 48.83 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.4% | -11.9% | dentro | 55.42 → 48.83 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.1% | -10.3% | dentro | 54.46 → 48.83 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.2% | -10.5% | dentro | 54.56 → 48.83 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.3% | -9.1% | dentro | 53.69 → 48.83 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.