MO 预期波动历史 Altria Group, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内66%
|实际值| 低于预期值66%
平均预期波动幅度±3.6%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.4%
平均绝对误差2.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 74.16 | ±2.3% | 72.48–75.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 75.00 | ±2.4% | 73.17–76.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 73.00 | ±2.9% | 70.90–75.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 71.54 | ±3.1% | 69.35–73.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 71.54 | ±3.4% | 69.14–73.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 71.32 | ±3.8% | 68.61–74.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 69.43 | ±3.5% | 67.00–71.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 68.53 | ±3.8% | 65.92–71.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 67.89 | ±3.8% | 65.29–70.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 67.41 | ±3.9% | 64.75–70.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 67.04 | ±4.2% | 64.25–69.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 68.61 | ±5.0% | 65.15–72.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 68.75 | ±5.0% | 65.30–72.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 68.57 | ±4.6% | 65.39–71.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 69.70 | ±5.1% | 66.14–73.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 69.70 | ±5.4% | 65.97–73.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 70.12 | ±5.3% | 66.40–73.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 69.83 | ±6.0% | 65.67–74.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 70.68 | ±5.8% | 66.58–74.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 69.07 | ±5.8% | 65.08–73.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 68.59 | ±6.3% | 64.30–72.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 67.89 | ±6.2% | 63.72–72.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 68.21 | ±6.3% | 63.90–72.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 68.88 | ±6.4% | 64.49–73.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 69.03 | ±6.3% | 64.70–73.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 69.77 | ±6.9% | 64.96–74.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 74.16 | ±4.5% | 70.86–77.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 75.00 | ±4.9% | 71.31–78.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 73.00 | ±5.4% | 69.06–76.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 71.54 | ±5.1% | 67.88–75.20 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 75.00 → 75.11 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | +2.9% | 区间外 | 73.00 → 75.11 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +5.0% | 区间外 | 71.54 → 75.11 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +5.0% | 区间外 | 71.54 → 75.11 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +5.3% | 区间外 | 71.32 → 75.11 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +8.2% | 区间外 | 69.43 → 75.11 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +9.6% | 区间外 | 68.53 → 75.11 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +10.6% | 区间外 | 67.89 → 75.11 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +11.4% | 区间外 | 67.41 → 75.11 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +12.0% | 区间外 | 67.04 → 75.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 68.61 → 75.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +9.3% | 区间外 | 68.75 → 75.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 68.57 → 75.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +7.8% | 区间外 | 69.70 → 75.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +7.8% | 区间外 | 69.70 → 75.11 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +7.1% | 区间外 | 70.12 → 75.11 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +7.6% | 区间外 | 69.83 → 75.11 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 70.68 → 75.11 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +8.7% | 区间外 | 69.07 → 75.11 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 68.59 → 75.11 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +10.6% | 区间外 | 67.89 → 75.11 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 68.21 → 75.11 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +9.0% | 区间外 | 68.88 → 75.11 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +8.8% | 区间外 | 69.03 → 75.11 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +7.7% | 区间外 | 69.77 → 75.11 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +7.9% | 区间外 | 69.64 → 75.11 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 69.53 → 75.11 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +9.7% | 区间外 | 68.50 → 75.11 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 71.54 → 71.68 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 71.32 → 71.68 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +3.2% | 区间外 | 69.43 → 71.68 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +4.6% | 区间外 | 68.53 → 71.68 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +5.6% | 区间外 | 67.89 → 71.68 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 67.41 → 71.68 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +6.9% | 区间外 | 67.04 → 71.68 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +4.5% | 区间外 | 68.61 → 71.68 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +4.3% | 区间外 | 68.75 → 71.68 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +4.5% | 区间外 | 68.57 → 71.68 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 69.70 → 71.68 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 69.70 → 71.68 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 70.12 → 71.68 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 69.83 → 71.68 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 70.68 → 71.68 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 69.07 → 71.68 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +4.5% | 区间内 | 68.59 → 71.68 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +5.6% | 区间外 | 67.89 → 71.68 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +5.1% | 区间内 | 68.21 → 71.68 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 68.88 → 71.68 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 69.03 → 71.68 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 69.77 → 71.68 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 69.64 → 71.68 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 69.53 → 71.68 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 68.50 → 71.68 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 67.41 → 67.35 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 67.04 → 67.35 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.9% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 68.61 → 67.35 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.9% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 68.75 → 67.35 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 68.57 → 67.35 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -3.4% | 区间外 | 69.70 → 67.35 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -3.4% | 区间外 | 69.70 → 67.35 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.