MMM historial de movimiento esperado 3M Company
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango82%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado82%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.2%
Error medio abs.2.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 162.02 | ±5.7% | 152.77–171.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 164.75 | ±6.1% | 154.78–174.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 164.52 | ±7.0% | 153.00–176.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 162.77 | ±5.9% | 153.25–172.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 159.95 | ±6.0% | 150.43–169.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 163.67 | ±6.5% | 153.04–174.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 162.30 | ±6.1% | 152.35–172.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 163.64 | ±6.4% | 153.19–174.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 163.19 | ±5.5% | 154.26–172.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 161.64 | ±6.0% | 151.96–171.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 163.02 | ±5.9% | 153.42–172.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 169.30 | ±6.4% | 158.45–180.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 168.09 | ±6.6% | 156.94–179.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 165.72 | ±6.9% | 154.34–177.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 165.65 | ±7.0% | 154.07–177.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 163.46 | ±7.1% | 151.86–175.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 164.67 | ±7.5% | 152.27–177.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 160.92 | ±7.4% | 149.02–172.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 164.50 | ±7.4% | 152.38–176.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 165.29 | ±7.4% | 153.01–177.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 162.19 | ±7.7% | 149.76–174.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 164.77 | ±7.8% | 151.84–177.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 167.66 | ±7.6% | 154.88–180.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 168.56 | ±8.0% | 155.03–182.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 168.63 | ±8.1% | 154.93–182.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 166.78 | ±8.5% | 152.69–180.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 162.02 | ±6.6% | 151.27–172.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 164.75 | ±6.8% | 153.50–176.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 164.52 | ±8.1% | 151.19–177.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 162.77 | ±6.4% | 152.32–173.22 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 164.75 → 164.75 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 164.52 → 164.75 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +1.2% | dentro | 162.77 → 164.75 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +3.0% | fuera | 159.95 → 164.75 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +0.7% | dentro | 163.67 → 164.75 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +1.5% | dentro | 162.30 → 164.75 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +0.7% | dentro | 163.64 → 164.75 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +1.0% | dentro | 163.19 → 164.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +1.9% | dentro | 161.64 → 164.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +1.1% | dentro | 163.02 → 164.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -2.7% | dentro | 169.30 → 164.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -2.0% | dentro | 168.09 → 164.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -0.6% | dentro | 165.72 → 164.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -0.5% | dentro | 165.65 → 164.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +0.8% | dentro | 163.46 → 164.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 164.67 → 164.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +2.4% | dentro | 160.92 → 164.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +0.2% | dentro | 164.50 → 164.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -0.3% | dentro | 165.29 → 164.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +1.6% | dentro | 162.19 → 164.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 164.77 → 164.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -1.7% | dentro | 167.66 → 164.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -2.3% | dentro | 168.56 → 164.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -2.3% | dentro | 168.63 → 164.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -1.2% | dentro | 166.78 → 164.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -3.2% | dentro | 170.24 → 164.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -4.1% | dentro | 171.83 → 164.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -4.9% | dentro | 173.29 → 164.75 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 159.95 → 159.96 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | -2.3% | fuera | 163.67 → 159.96 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | -1.4% | dentro | 162.30 → 159.96 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -2.2% | fuera | 163.64 → 159.96 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -2.0% | dentro | 163.19 → 159.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 161.64 → 159.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -1.9% | dentro | 163.02 → 159.96 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -5.5% | fuera | 169.30 → 159.96 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -4.8% | fuera | 168.09 → 159.96 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 165.72 → 159.96 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -3.4% | dentro | 165.65 → 159.96 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -2.1% | dentro | 163.46 → 159.96 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -2.9% | dentro | 164.67 → 159.96 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -0.6% | dentro | 160.92 → 159.96 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -2.8% | dentro | 164.50 → 159.96 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -3.2% | dentro | 165.29 → 159.96 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -1.4% | dentro | 162.19 → 159.96 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -2.9% | dentro | 164.77 → 159.96 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -4.6% | dentro | 167.66 → 159.96 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -5.1% | dentro | 168.56 → 159.96 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -5.1% | dentro | 168.63 → 159.96 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -4.1% | dentro | 166.78 → 159.96 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -6.0% | fuera | 170.24 → 159.96 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -6.9% | fuera | 171.83 → 159.96 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -7.7% | fuera | 173.29 → 159.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.2% | dentro | 161.64 → 161.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | -0.7% | dentro | 163.02 → 161.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -4.4% | fuera | 169.30 → 161.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -3.7% | fuera | 168.09 → 161.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -2.3% | dentro | 165.72 → 161.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -2.3% | dentro | 165.65 → 161.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -1.0% | dentro | 163.46 → 161.89 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.