MGM historial de movimiento esperado MGM Resorts International
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas20
Cierre dentro del rango30%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado30%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.2%
Error medio abs.1.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 28.64 | ±3.1% | 27.77–29.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 28.95 | ±2.3% | 28.27–29.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 29.40 | ±3.2% | 28.45–30.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 29.27 | ±3.8% | 28.17–30.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 30.03 | ±4.2% | 28.75–31.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 30.06 | ±4.7% | 28.66–31.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 30.54 | ±5.1% | 28.99–32.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 30.27 | ±5.1% | 28.72–31.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 30.70 | ±5.7% | 28.95–32.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 30.61 | ±6.0% | 28.79–32.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 38.91 | ±12.9% | 33.91–43.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 38.49 | ±12.3% | 33.74–43.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 38.73 | ±10.3% | 34.76–42.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 38.45 | ±8.8% | 35.08–41.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 39.22 | ±8.9% | 35.72–42.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 39.22 | ±8.9% | 35.72–42.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 39.90 | ±9.4% | 36.15–43.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 39.90 | ±9.4% | 36.15–43.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 40.73 | ±9.6% | 36.80–44.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 40.66 | ±9.4% | 36.84–44.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 40.37 | ±8.4% | 36.97–43.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 41.22 | ±10.1% | 37.05–45.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 41.22 | ±10.1% | 37.05–45.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 41.34 | ±9.5% | 37.41–45.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 41.44 | ±9.8% | 37.37–45.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 41.60 | ±10.1% | 37.40–45.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 41.60 | ±10.1% | 37.40–45.80 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 41.60 | ±10.1% | 37.40–45.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 28.64 | ±11.0% | 25.49–31.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 28.95 | ±10.9% | 25.80–32.10 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.5% | -1.7% | dentro | 38.45 → 37.81 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.1% | -3.6% | fuera | 39.22 → 37.81 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.1% | -3.6% | fuera | 39.22 → 37.81 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.4% | -5.2% | fuera | 39.90 → 37.81 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.4% | -5.2% | fuera | 39.90 → 37.81 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.6% | -7.2% | fuera | 40.73 → 37.81 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.4% | -7.0% | fuera | 40.66 → 37.81 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.6% | -6.3% | fuera | 40.37 → 37.81 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.1% | -8.3% | fuera | 41.22 → 37.81 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.1% | -8.3% | fuera | 41.22 → 37.81 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.2% | -8.5% | fuera | 41.34 → 37.81 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.2% | -8.8% | fuera | 41.44 → 37.81 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.5% | -9.1% | fuera | 41.60 → 37.81 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.5% | -9.1% | fuera | 41.60 → 37.81 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.5% | -9.1% | fuera | 41.60 → 37.81 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 04 | ±2.1% | -0.3% | dentro | 41.34 → 41.22 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 04 | ±2.7% | -0.5% | dentro | 41.44 → 41.22 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 04 | ±3.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 41.60 → 41.22 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 04 | ±3.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 41.60 → 41.22 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 04 | ±3.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 41.60 → 41.22 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.