META 预期波动历史 Meta Platforms, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项1
收盘价处于区间内100%
|实际值| 低于预期值100%
平均预期波动幅度±0.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度0.1%
平均绝对误差0.1pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02 | Sep 02 | 0 | 594.36 | ±0.4% | 592.02–596.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 02 | 1 | 577.44 | ±1.7% | 567.84–587.04 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 02 | 2 | 571.85 | ±2.1% | 559.77–583.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 04 | 2 | 594.36 | ±2.5% | 579.68–609.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 04 | 3 | 577.44 | ±3.0% | 560.37–594.51 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 04 | 4 | 571.85 | ±3.1% | 554.10–589.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 09 | 7 | 594.36 | ±3.6% | 573.18–615.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 09 | 8 | 577.44 | ±3.8% | 555.41–599.47 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 09 | 9 | 571.85 | ±3.9% | 549.55–594.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 11 | 9 | 594.36 | ±4.3% | 568.71–620.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 11 | 10 | 577.44 | ±4.6% | 551.01–603.87 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 11 | 11 | 571.85 | ±4.6% | 545.83–597.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 14 | 12 | 594.36 | ±4.7% | 566.38–622.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 14 | 13 | 577.44 | ±4.8% | 549.57–605.32 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 14 | 14 | 571.85 | ±5.1% | 542.92–600.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 16 | 14 | 594.36 | ±5.2% | 563.43–625.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 16 | 15 | 577.44 | ±5.5% | 545.82–609.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 18 | 16 | 594.36 | ±5.8% | 559.93–628.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 18 | 17 | 577.44 | ±6.0% | 542.72–612.16 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 18 | 18 | 571.85 | ±5.9% | 538.15–605.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 25 | 23 | 594.36 | ±7.1% | 552.36–636.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 25 | 24 | 577.44 | ±7.3% | 535.49–619.39 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 25 | 25 | 571.85 | ±7.2% | 530.95–612.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 02 | 30 | 594.36 | ±8.1% | 546.31–642.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 02 | 31 | 577.44 | ±8.2% | 529.97–624.91 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 02 | 32 | 571.85 | ±8.2% | 525.12–618.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 09 | 37 | 594.36 | ±9.0% | 541.03–647.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 09 | 38 | 577.44 | ±9.1% | 524.97–629.91 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 09 | 39 | 571.85 | ±8.9% | 520.75–622.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 594.36 | ±9.9% | 535.63–653.09 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Aug 31 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 571.85 → 572.34 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.