META 预期波动历史 Meta Platforms, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项200
收盘价处于区间内40%
|实际值| 低于预期值40%
平均预期波动幅度±5.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度8.1%
平均绝对误差4.9pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 706.45 | ±0.4% | 703.90–709.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 709.99 | ±2.1% | 695.19–724.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 737.64 | ±3.0% | 715.66–759.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 763.82 | ±3.2% | 739.10–788.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 717.91 | ±3.9% | 689.59–746.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 720.64 | ±4.5% | 688.39–752.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 722.42 | ±4.7% | 688.45–756.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 739.52 | ±4.6% | 705.65–773.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 742.46 | ±5.2% | 703.78–781.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 706.45 | ±5.5% | 667.67–745.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 709.99 | ±5.6% | 670.49–749.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 737.64 | ±6.1% | 692.51–782.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 763.82 | ±6.0% | 717.70–809.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 717.91 | ±4.6% | 685.01–750.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 720.64 | ±5.1% | 684.22–757.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 722.42 | ±5.1% | 685.52–759.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 739.52 | ±5.1% | 701.47–777.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 706.45 | ±6.9% | 657.50–755.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 709.99 | ±7.3% | 658.24–761.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 737.64 | ±7.2% | 684.41–790.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 763.82 | ±7.1% | 709.45–818.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 717.91 | ±5.1% | 681.13–754.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 720.64 | ±5.6% | 680.54–760.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 722.42 | ±5.8% | 680.45–764.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 739.52 | ±5.8% | 696.30–782.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 742.46 | ±6.1% | 697.18–787.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 727.57 | ±6.5% | 680.47–774.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 725.25 | ±7.2% | 673.10–777.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 741.00 | ±9.8% | 668.02–813.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 738.99 | ±9.9% | 666.01–811.97 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 709.99 → 709.33 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -3.8% | 区间外 | 737.64 → 709.33 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 763.82 → 709.33 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 717.91 → 709.33 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 720.64 → 709.33 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 722.42 → 709.33 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 739.52 → 709.33 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 742.46 → 709.33 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 727.57 → 709.33 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 725.25 → 709.33 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 741.00 → 709.33 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 738.99 → 709.33 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 740.06 → 709.33 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 668.70 → 709.33 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 680.75 → 709.33 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 674.33 → 709.33 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 669.96 → 709.33 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +6.7% | 区间内 | 664.50 → 709.33 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +9.6% | 区间外 | 647.29 → 709.33 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +10.4% | 区间外 | 642.50 → 709.33 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | +9.2% | 区间内 | 649.46 → 709.33 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +15.4% | 区间外 | 614.44 → 709.33 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +15.3% | 区间外 | 615.20 → 709.33 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +15.3% | 区间外 | 615.02 → 709.33 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +16.0% | 区间外 | 611.28 → 709.33 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +19.3% | 区间外 | 594.36 → 709.33 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +22.8% | 区间外 | 577.44 → 709.33 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +24.0% | 区间外 | 571.85 → 709.33 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 737.64 → 737.54 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.7% | -3.4% | 区间外 | 763.82 → 737.54 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 717.91 → 737.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 720.64 → 737.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.7% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 722.42 → 737.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.7% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 739.52 → 737.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.1% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 742.46 → 737.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.7% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 727.57 → 737.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.3% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 725.25 → 737.54 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.6% | +3.5% | 区间外 | 717.91 → 742.96 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.4% | +3.1% | 区间外 | 720.64 → 742.96 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.8% | +2.8% | 区间外 | 722.42 → 742.96 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.1% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 739.52 → 742.96 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.5% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 742.46 → 742.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.0% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 727.57 → 742.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.8% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 725.25 → 742.96 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 717.91 → 718.67 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 720.64 → 718.67 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 722.42 → 718.67 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | -2.8% | 区间外 | 739.52 → 718.67 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -3.2% | 区间外 | 742.46 → 718.67 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 727.57 → 718.67 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 725.25 → 718.67 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 741.00 → 718.67 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 738.99 → 718.67 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 740.06 → 718.67 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 668.70 → 718.67 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.6% | 区间内 | 680.75 → 718.67 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 674.33 → 718.67 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +7.3% | 区间内 | 669.96 → 718.67 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +8.2% | 区间外 | 664.50 → 718.67 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +11.0% | 区间外 | 647.29 → 718.67 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.