META historial de movimiento esperado Meta Platforms, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango40%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado40%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio8.1%
Error medio abs.4.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 706.45 | ±0.4% | 703.90–709.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 709.99 | ±2.1% | 695.19–724.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 737.64 | ±3.0% | 715.66–759.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 763.82 | ±3.2% | 739.10–788.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 717.91 | ±3.9% | 689.59–746.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 720.64 | ±4.5% | 688.39–752.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 722.42 | ±4.7% | 688.45–756.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 739.52 | ±4.6% | 705.65–773.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 742.46 | ±5.2% | 703.78–781.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 706.45 | ±5.5% | 667.67–745.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 709.99 | ±5.6% | 670.49–749.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 737.64 | ±6.1% | 692.51–782.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 763.82 | ±6.0% | 717.70–809.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 717.91 | ±4.6% | 685.01–750.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 720.64 | ±5.1% | 684.22–757.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 722.42 | ±5.1% | 685.52–759.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 739.52 | ±5.1% | 701.47–777.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 706.45 | ±6.9% | 657.50–755.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 709.99 | ±7.3% | 658.24–761.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 737.64 | ±7.2% | 684.41–790.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 763.82 | ±7.1% | 709.45–818.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 717.91 | ±5.1% | 681.13–754.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 720.64 | ±5.6% | 680.54–760.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 722.42 | ±5.8% | 680.45–764.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 739.52 | ±5.8% | 696.30–782.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 742.46 | ±6.1% | 697.18–787.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 727.57 | ±6.5% | 680.47–774.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 725.25 | ±7.2% | 673.10–777.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 741.00 | ±9.8% | 668.02–813.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 738.99 | ±9.9% | 666.01–811.97 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 709.99 → 709.33 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -3.8% | fuera | 737.64 → 709.33 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -7.1% | fuera | 763.82 → 709.33 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -1.2% | dentro | 717.91 → 709.33 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -1.6% | dentro | 720.64 → 709.33 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -1.8% | dentro | 722.42 → 709.33 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -4.1% | dentro | 739.52 → 709.33 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -4.5% | dentro | 742.46 → 709.33 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -2.5% | dentro | 727.57 → 709.33 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -2.2% | dentro | 725.25 → 709.33 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -4.3% | dentro | 741.00 → 709.33 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -4.0% | dentro | 738.99 → 709.33 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -4.2% | dentro | 740.06 → 709.33 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +6.1% | dentro | 668.70 → 709.33 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +4.2% | dentro | 680.75 → 709.33 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +5.2% | dentro | 674.33 → 709.33 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +5.9% | dentro | 669.96 → 709.33 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +6.7% | dentro | 664.50 → 709.33 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +9.6% | fuera | 647.29 → 709.33 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +10.4% | fuera | 642.50 → 709.33 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | +9.2% | dentro | 649.46 → 709.33 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +15.4% | fuera | 614.44 → 709.33 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +15.3% | fuera | 615.20 → 709.33 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +15.3% | fuera | 615.02 → 709.33 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +16.0% | fuera | 611.28 → 709.33 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +19.3% | fuera | 594.36 → 709.33 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +22.8% | fuera | 577.44 → 709.33 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +24.0% | fuera | 571.85 → 709.33 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 737.64 → 737.54 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.7% | -3.4% | fuera | 763.82 → 737.54 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | +2.7% | dentro | 717.91 → 737.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | +2.3% | dentro | 720.64 → 737.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.7% | +2.1% | dentro | 722.42 → 737.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.7% | -0.3% | dentro | 739.52 → 737.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.1% | -0.7% | dentro | 742.46 → 737.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.7% | +1.4% | dentro | 727.57 → 737.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.3% | +1.7% | dentro | 725.25 → 737.54 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.6% | +3.5% | fuera | 717.91 → 742.96 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.4% | +3.1% | fuera | 720.64 → 742.96 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.8% | +2.8% | fuera | 722.42 → 742.96 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.1% | +0.5% | dentro | 739.52 → 742.96 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 742.46 → 742.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.0% | +2.1% | dentro | 727.57 → 742.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.8% | +2.4% | dentro | 725.25 → 742.96 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 717.91 → 718.67 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 720.64 → 718.67 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 722.42 → 718.67 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | -2.8% | fuera | 739.52 → 718.67 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -3.2% | fuera | 742.46 → 718.67 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | -1.2% | dentro | 727.57 → 718.67 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -0.9% | dentro | 725.25 → 718.67 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -3.0% | dentro | 741.00 → 718.67 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -2.8% | dentro | 738.99 → 718.67 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -2.9% | dentro | 740.06 → 718.67 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +7.5% | fuera | 668.70 → 718.67 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.6% | dentro | 680.75 → 718.67 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +6.6% | dentro | 674.33 → 718.67 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +7.3% | dentro | 669.96 → 718.67 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +8.2% | fuera | 664.50 → 718.67 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +11.0% | fuera | 647.29 → 718.67 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.