META expected-move history Meta Platforms, Inc.

Every trading day after the close we record what the options market was pricing — per expiration, before the outcome was known. When an expiration passes, the outcome is written next to the original estimate. Estimates are never revised after the fact. How to read these statistics · recording since Aug 31, 2026

Comparisons resolved200

Close inside range40%

|Actual| under expected40%

Avg expected move±5.2%

Avg |actual| move8.1%

Mean abs. error4.9pt

Implied vs realized, by expiration

For each expiration: the amber outline is the expected move recorded closest to expiry; the solid bar is what the stock actually did. Signed values are printed beneath the bars.

expected (recorded)actual

Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)

Snapshot	Expires	DTE	Spot then	Expected move	Range	Method
Oct 19	Oct 19	0	706.45	±0.4%	703.90–709.00	em-1.0
Oct 16	Oct 19	3	709.99	±2.1%	695.19–724.79	em-1.0
Oct 14	Oct 19	5	737.64	±3.0%	715.66–759.62	em-1.0
Oct 13	Oct 19	6	763.82	±3.2%	739.10–788.54	em-1.0
Oct 09	Oct 19	10	717.91	±3.9%	689.59–746.24	em-1.0
Oct 08	Oct 19	11	720.64	±4.5%	688.39–752.89	em-1.0
Oct 07	Oct 19	12	722.42	±4.7%	688.45–756.39	em-1.0
Oct 06	Oct 19	13	739.52	±4.6%	705.65–773.40	em-1.0
Oct 05	Oct 19	14	742.46	±5.2%	703.78–781.13	em-1.0
Oct 19	Oct 21	2	706.45	±5.5%	667.67–745.23	em-1.0
Oct 16	Oct 21	5	709.99	±5.6%	670.49–749.49	em-1.0
Oct 14	Oct 21	7	737.64	±6.1%	692.51–782.76	em-1.0
Oct 13	Oct 21	8	763.82	±6.0%	717.70–809.95	em-1.0
Oct 09	Oct 21	12	717.91	±4.6%	685.01–750.81	em-1.0
Oct 08	Oct 21	13	720.64	±5.1%	684.22–757.07	em-1.0
Oct 07	Oct 21	14	722.42	±5.1%	685.52–759.32	em-1.0
Oct 06	Oct 21	15	739.52	±5.1%	701.47–777.57	em-1.0
Oct 19	Oct 23	4	706.45	±6.9%	657.50–755.40	em-1.0
Oct 16	Oct 23	7	709.99	±7.3%	658.24–761.74	em-1.0
Oct 14	Oct 23	9	737.64	±7.2%	684.41–790.87	em-1.0
Oct 13	Oct 23	10	763.82	±7.1%	709.45–818.20	em-1.0
Oct 09	Oct 23	14	717.91	±5.1%	681.13–754.68	em-1.0
Oct 08	Oct 23	15	720.64	±5.6%	680.54–760.74	em-1.0
Oct 07	Oct 23	16	722.42	±5.8%	680.45–764.39	em-1.0
Oct 06	Oct 23	17	739.52	±5.8%	696.30–782.75	em-1.0
Oct 05	Oct 23	18	742.46	±6.1%	697.18–787.74	em-1.0
Oct 02	Oct 23	21	727.57	±6.5%	680.47–774.67	em-1.0
Oct 01	Oct 23	22	725.25	±7.2%	673.10–777.40	em-1.0
Sep 23	Oct 23	30	741.00	±9.8%	668.02–813.98	em-1.0
Sep 22	Oct 23	31	738.99	±9.9%	666.01–811.97	em-1.0

Resolved snapshots

Snapshot	Expired	Expected	Actual	Inside range?	Spot → close
Oct 16, 2026	Oct 16	±0.3%	-0.1%	inside	709.99 → 709.33
Oct 14, 2026	Oct 16	±2.4%	-3.8%	outside	737.64 → 709.33
Oct 13, 2026	Oct 16	±2.8%	-7.1%	outside	763.82 → 709.33
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 16	±3.6%	-1.2%	inside	717.91 → 709.33
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 16	±4.1%	-1.6%	inside	720.64 → 709.33
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 16	±4.4%	-1.8%	inside	722.42 → 709.33
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 16	±4.5%	-4.1%	inside	739.52 → 709.33
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 16	±4.8%	-4.5%	inside	742.46 → 709.33
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 16	±5.2%	-2.5%	inside	727.57 → 709.33
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 16	±5.9%	-2.2%	inside	725.25 → 709.33
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 16	±8.9%	-4.3%	inside	741.00 → 709.33
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 16	±8.9%	-4.0%	inside	738.99 → 709.33
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 16	±9.6%	-4.2%	inside	740.06 → 709.33
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 16	±8.4%	+6.1%	inside	668.70 → 709.33
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 16	±8.5%	+4.2%	inside	680.75 → 709.33
Sep 16, 2026	Oct 16	±8.9%	+5.2%	inside	674.33 → 709.33
Sep 15, 2026	Oct 16	±9.0%	+5.9%	inside	669.96 → 709.33
Sep 14, 2026	Oct 16	±9.0%	+6.7%	inside	664.50 → 709.33
Sep 11, 2026	Oct 16	±9.1%	+9.6%	outside	647.29 → 709.33
Sep 10, 2026	Oct 16	±9.8%	+10.4%	outside	642.50 → 709.33
Sep 09, 2026	Oct 16	±10.1%	+9.2%	inside	649.46 → 709.33
Sep 08, 2026	Oct 16	±9.9%	+15.4%	outside	614.44 → 709.33
Sep 07, 2026	Oct 16	±9.7%	+15.3%	outside	615.20 → 709.33
Sep 04, 2026	Oct 16	±9.7%	+15.3%	outside	615.02 → 709.33
Sep 03, 2026	Oct 16	±9.6%	+16.0%	outside	611.28 → 709.33
Sep 02, 2026	Oct 16	±9.9%	+19.3%	outside	594.36 → 709.33
Sep 01, 2026	Oct 16	±10.0%	+22.8%	outside	577.44 → 709.33
Aug 31, 2026	Oct 16	±9.9%	+24.0%	outside	571.85 → 709.33
Oct 14, 2026	Oct 14	±0.2%	-0.0%	inside	737.64 → 737.54
Oct 13, 2026	Oct 14	±1.7%	-3.4%	outside	763.82 → 737.54
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 14	±2.7%	+2.7%	inside	717.91 → 737.54
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 14	±3.4%	+2.3%	inside	720.64 → 737.54
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 14	±3.7%	+2.1%	inside	722.42 → 737.54
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 14	±3.7%	-0.3%	inside	739.52 → 737.54
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 14	±4.1%	-0.7%	inside	742.46 → 737.54
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 14	±4.7%	+1.4%	inside	727.57 → 737.54
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 14	±5.3%	+1.7%	inside	725.25 → 737.54
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 12	±1.6%	+3.5%	outside	717.91 → 742.96
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 12	±2.4%	+3.1%	outside	720.64 → 742.96
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 12	±2.8%	+2.8%	outside	722.42 → 742.96
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 12	±3.1%	+0.5%	inside	739.52 → 742.96
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 12	±3.5%	+0.1%	inside	742.46 → 742.96
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 12	±4.0%	+2.1%	inside	727.57 → 742.96
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 12	±4.8%	+2.4%	inside	725.25 → 742.96
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 09	±0.2%	+0.1%	inside	717.91 → 718.67
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 09	±1.5%	-0.3%	inside	720.64 → 718.67
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 09	±2.2%	-0.5%	inside	722.42 → 718.67
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 09	±2.6%	-2.8%	outside	739.52 → 718.67
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 09	±3.1%	-3.2%	outside	742.46 → 718.67
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 09	±3.6%	-1.2%	inside	727.57 → 718.67
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 09	±4.4%	-0.9%	inside	725.25 → 718.67
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 09	±7.7%	-3.0%	inside	741.00 → 718.67
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 09	±7.7%	-2.8%	inside	738.99 → 718.67
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 09	±8.5%	-2.9%	inside	740.06 → 718.67
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 09	±7.3%	+7.5%	outside	668.70 → 718.67
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 09	±7.3%	+5.6%	inside	680.75 → 718.67
Sep 16, 2026	Oct 09	±7.8%	+6.6%	inside	674.33 → 718.67
Sep 15, 2026	Oct 09	±7.9%	+7.3%	inside	669.96 → 718.67
Sep 14, 2026	Oct 09	±8.0%	+8.2%	outside	664.50 → 718.67
Sep 11, 2026	Oct 09	±8.1%	+11.0%	outside	647.29 → 718.67

Outcomes compare the recorded range with the closing price on expiration day. Method version shown per row where it differs; current: em-1.0.

META expected-move history Meta Platforms, Inc.

Implied vs realized, by expiration

Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)

Resolved snapshots

Consumer Cyclical

ETF

Technology

Financial Services

Industrials

Consumer Defensive