MELI 预期波动历史 MercadoLibre, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内44%
|实际值| 低于预期值44%
平均预期波动幅度±5.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度5.9%
平均绝对误差3.0pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 1,834.00 | ±0.9% | 1,817.62–1,850.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 1,829.87 | ±2.4% | 1,786.72–1,873.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 1,897.47 | ±3.0% | 1,841.42–1,953.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 1,889.00 | ±3.7% | 1,818.35–1,959.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 1,861.19 | ±4.3% | 1,780.79–1,941.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 1,843.36 | ±4.9% | 1,753.41–1,933.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 1,874.98 | ±5.3% | 1,774.88–1,975.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 1,860.66 | ±5.4% | 1,760.87–1,960.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 1,682.64 | ±6.1% | 1,579.35–1,785.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 1,684.53 | ±6.2% | 1,580.28–1,788.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 1,826.58 | ±7.5% | 1,689.43–1,963.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 1,826.58 | ±7.5% | 1,689.43–1,963.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 1,816.96 | ±7.7% | 1,676.31–1,957.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 1,817.90 | ±8.3% | 1,667.45–1,968.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 1,846.00 | ±8.8% | 1,683.80–2,008.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 1,817.00 | ±8.7% | 1,659.20–1,974.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 1,840.36 | ±8.7% | 1,681.15–1,999.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 1,890.15 | ±9.0% | 1,719.85–2,060.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 1,912.00 | ±9.4% | 1,732.35–2,091.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 1,906.71 | ±9.4% | 1,728.41–2,085.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 1,870.03 | ±9.4% | 1,694.88–2,045.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 1,947.12 | ±9.4% | 1,763.32–2,130.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 1,975.00 | ±9.5% | 1,788.30–2,161.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 1,993.51 | ±9.4% | 1,806.95–2,180.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 1,997.24 | ±9.7% | 1,803.04–2,191.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 1,998.98 | ±9.9% | 1,802.03–2,195.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 1,956.85 | ±9.9% | 1,762.15–2,151.55 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 1,963.20 | ±10.0% | 1,766.80–2,159.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 1,834.00 | ±4.1% | 1,759.60–1,908.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 1,829.87 | ±4.5% | 1,747.62–1,912.12 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 1,889.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 1,861.19 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 1,843.36 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 1,874.98 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 1,860.66 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +12.3% | 区间外 | 1,682.64 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +12.2% | 区间外 | 1,684.53 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 1,826.58 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 1,826.58 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 1,816.96 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 1,817.90 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 1,846.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 1,817.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 1,840.36 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 1,890.15 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 1,912.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 1,906.71 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 1,870.03 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 1,947.12 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 1,975.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 1,993.51 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 1,997.24 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 1,998.98 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 1,956.85 → 1,889.85 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 1,963.20 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 1,682.64 → 1,696.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 1,684.53 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 1,826.58 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 1,826.58 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 1,816.96 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 1,817.90 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | -8.1% | 区间外 | 1,846.00 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 1,817.00 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 1,840.36 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -10.2% | 区间外 | 1,890.15 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -11.3% | 区间外 | 1,912.00 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -11.0% | 区间外 | 1,906.71 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -9.3% | 区间外 | 1,870.03 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -12.9% | 区间外 | 1,947.12 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -14.1% | 区间外 | 1,975.00 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -14.9% | 区间外 | 1,993.51 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | -15.1% | 区间外 | 1,997.24 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -15.1% | 区间外 | 1,998.98 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -13.3% | 区间外 | 1,956.85 → 1,696.56 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | -13.6% | 区间外 | 1,963.20 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -4.0% | 区间外 | 1,826.58 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -4.0% | 区间外 | 1,826.58 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -3.5% | 区间外 | 1,816.96 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | -3.6% | 区间外 | 1,817.90 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 1,846.00 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 1,817.00 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 1,840.36 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -7.3% | 区间外 | 1,890.15 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -8.3% | 区间外 | 1,912.00 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -8.1% | 区间外 | 1,906.71 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.0% | -6.3% | 区间外 | 1,870.03 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -10.0% | 区间外 | 1,947.12 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -11.3% | 区间外 | 1,975.00 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -12.1% | 区间外 | 1,993.51 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -12.2% | 区间外 | 1,997.24 → 1,752.61 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.