MELI riwayat pergerakan yang diperkirakan MercadoLibre, Inc.
Setiap hari perdagangan setelah penutupan, kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi — per expirasi, sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Ketika suatu expirasi berlalu, hasilnya ditulis di samping estimasi awal. Estimasi tidak pernah direvisi setelah fakta terjadi. Cara membaca statistik ini · merekam sejak Aug 31, 2026
Perbandingan terselesaikan93
Tutup dalam rentang44%
|Aktual| di bawah ekspektasi44%
Rata-rata pergerakan yang diperkirakan±5.4%
Rata-rata pergerakan |aktual|5.9%
Rata-rata kesalahan absolut3.0pt
Implied vs realized, per kedaluwarsa
Untuk setiap expirasi: garis tepi berwarna kuning adalah pergerakan yang diharapkan yang dicatat paling dekat dengan expirasi; batang padat adalah pergerakan saham yang sebenarnya terjadi. Nilai bertanda dicetak di bawah batang.
ekspektasi (direkam)aktual
Sedang dicatat (menunggu hasil)
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | DTE | Spot saat itu | Pergerakan yang diharapkan | Rentang | Metode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 1,834.00 | ±0.9% | 1,817.62–1,850.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 1,829.87 | ±2.4% | 1,786.72–1,873.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 1,897.47 | ±3.0% | 1,841.42–1,953.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 1,889.00 | ±3.7% | 1,818.35–1,959.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 1,861.19 | ±4.3% | 1,780.79–1,941.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 1,843.36 | ±4.9% | 1,753.41–1,933.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 1,874.98 | ±5.3% | 1,774.88–1,975.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 1,860.66 | ±5.4% | 1,760.87–1,960.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 1,682.64 | ±6.1% | 1,579.35–1,785.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 1,684.53 | ±6.2% | 1,580.28–1,788.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 1,826.58 | ±7.5% | 1,689.43–1,963.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 1,826.58 | ±7.5% | 1,689.43–1,963.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 1,816.96 | ±7.7% | 1,676.31–1,957.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 1,817.90 | ±8.3% | 1,667.45–1,968.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 1,846.00 | ±8.8% | 1,683.80–2,008.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 1,817.00 | ±8.7% | 1,659.20–1,974.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 1,840.36 | ±8.7% | 1,681.15–1,999.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 1,890.15 | ±9.0% | 1,719.85–2,060.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 1,912.00 | ±9.4% | 1,732.35–2,091.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 1,906.71 | ±9.4% | 1,728.41–2,085.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 1,870.03 | ±9.4% | 1,694.88–2,045.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 1,947.12 | ±9.4% | 1,763.32–2,130.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 1,975.00 | ±9.5% | 1,788.30–2,161.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 1,993.51 | ±9.4% | 1,806.95–2,180.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 1,997.24 | ±9.7% | 1,803.04–2,191.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 1,998.98 | ±9.9% | 1,802.03–2,195.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 1,956.85 | ±9.9% | 1,762.15–2,151.55 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 1,963.20 | ±10.0% | 1,766.80–2,159.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 1,834.00 | ±4.1% | 1,759.60–1,908.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 1,829.87 | ±4.5% | 1,747.62–1,912.12 | em-1.0 |
Snapshot yang telah diselesaikan
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | Diharapkan | Aktual | Dalam kisaran? | Spot → penutupan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | di dalam | 1,889.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.5% | di dalam | 1,861.19 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +2.5% | di dalam | 1,843.36 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +0.8% | di dalam | 1,874.98 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +1.6% | di dalam | 1,860.66 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +12.3% | di luar | 1,682.64 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +12.2% | di luar | 1,684.53 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +3.5% | di dalam | 1,826.58 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +3.5% | di dalam | 1,826.58 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +4.0% | di dalam | 1,816.96 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +4.0% | di dalam | 1,817.90 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +2.4% | di dalam | 1,846.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +4.0% | di dalam | 1,817.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +2.7% | di dalam | 1,840.36 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -0.0% | di dalam | 1,890.15 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -1.2% | di dalam | 1,912.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -0.9% | di dalam | 1,906.71 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +1.1% | di dalam | 1,870.03 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -2.9% | di dalam | 1,947.12 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -4.3% | di dalam | 1,975.00 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -5.2% | di dalam | 1,993.51 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -5.4% | di dalam | 1,997.24 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -5.5% | di dalam | 1,998.98 → 1,889.85 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -3.4% | di dalam | 1,956.85 → 1,889.85 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -3.7% | di dalam | 1,963.20 → 1,889.85 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | +0.8% | di dalam | 1,682.64 → 1,696.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | +0.7% | di dalam | 1,684.53 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -7.1% | di luar | 1,826.58 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -7.1% | di luar | 1,826.58 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -6.6% | di luar | 1,816.96 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -6.7% | di luar | 1,817.90 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | -8.1% | di luar | 1,846.00 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -6.6% | di luar | 1,817.00 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -7.8% | di luar | 1,840.36 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -10.2% | di luar | 1,890.15 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -11.3% | di luar | 1,912.00 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -11.0% | di luar | 1,906.71 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -9.3% | di luar | 1,870.03 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -12.9% | di luar | 1,947.12 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -14.1% | di luar | 1,975.00 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -14.9% | di luar | 1,993.51 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | -15.1% | di luar | 1,997.24 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -15.1% | di luar | 1,998.98 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -13.3% | di luar | 1,956.85 → 1,696.56 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | -13.6% | di luar | 1,963.20 → 1,696.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -4.0% | di luar | 1,826.58 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -4.0% | di luar | 1,826.58 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -3.5% | di luar | 1,816.96 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | -3.6% | di luar | 1,817.90 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -5.1% | di luar | 1,846.00 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | -3.5% | di dalam | 1,817.00 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | -4.8% | di dalam | 1,840.36 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -7.3% | di luar | 1,890.15 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -8.3% | di luar | 1,912.00 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -8.1% | di luar | 1,906.71 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.0% | -6.3% | di luar | 1,870.03 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -10.0% | di luar | 1,947.12 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -11.3% | di luar | 1,975.00 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -12.1% | di luar | 1,993.51 → 1,752.61 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -12.2% | di luar | 1,997.24 → 1,752.61 |
Hasil membandingkan rentang yang tercatat dengan harga penutupan pada hari kedaluwarsa. Versi metode ditampilkan per baris jika berbeda; saat ini: em-1.0.