MDT 预期波动历史 Medtronic Plc
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内67%
|实际值| 低于预期值67%
平均预期波动幅度±4.0%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.5%
平均绝对误差1.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 94.75 | ±0.5% | 94.30–95.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 94.23 | ±2.8% | 91.58–96.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 92.89 | ±1.9% | 91.14–94.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 88.00 | ±4.3% | 84.19–91.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 87.73 | ±4.4% | 83.89–91.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 85.65 | ±4.7% | 81.62–89.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 87.09 | ±5.4% | 82.41–91.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 88.29 | ±4.4% | 84.39–92.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 86.38 | ±5.4% | 81.70–91.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 86.44 | ±5.8% | 81.44–91.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 90.80 | ±6.5% | 84.89–96.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 90.84 | ±6.5% | 84.92–96.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 91.82 | ±6.4% | 85.93–97.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 92.13 | ±6.5% | 86.15–98.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 93.50 | ±6.1% | 87.78–99.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 92.50 | ±6.6% | 86.44–98.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 93.72 | ±5.8% | 88.28–99.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 93.73 | ±5.9% | 88.19–99.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 90.75 | ±5.7% | 85.54–95.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 92.47 | ±6.2% | 86.71–98.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 92.12 | ±6.3% | 86.36–97.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 93.01 | ±6.3% | 87.13–98.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 94.10 | ±6.9% | 87.61–100.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 94.48 | ±6.5% | 88.33–100.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 93.05 | ±6.7% | 86.86–99.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 92.50 | ±6.6% | 86.40–98.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 92.00 | ±7.4% | 85.20–98.80 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 91.17 | ±8.3% | 83.64–98.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 94.75 | ±2.7% | 92.22–97.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 94.23 | ±2.9% | 91.53–96.94 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 88.00 → 88.48 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 87.73 → 88.48 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +3.3% | 区间外 | 85.65 → 88.48 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 87.09 → 88.48 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 88.29 → 88.48 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 86.38 → 88.48 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 86.44 → 88.48 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 90.80 → 88.48 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 90.84 → 88.48 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 91.82 → 88.48 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 92.13 → 88.48 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 93.50 → 88.48 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -4.4% | 区间内 | 92.50 → 88.48 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 93.72 → 88.48 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -5.6% | 区间外 | 93.73 → 88.48 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 90.75 → 88.48 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 92.47 → 88.48 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 92.12 → 88.48 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 93.01 → 88.48 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 94.10 → 88.48 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -6.4% | 区间外 | 94.48 → 88.48 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 93.05 → 88.48 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 92.50 → 88.48 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 92.00 → 88.48 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 91.17 → 88.48 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 86.38 → 86.38 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 86.44 → 86.38 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -4.9% | 区间外 | 90.80 → 86.38 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -4.9% | 区间外 | 90.84 → 86.38 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -5.9% | 区间外 | 91.82 → 86.38 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 92.13 → 86.38 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 93.50 → 86.38 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 92.50 → 86.38 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 93.72 → 86.38 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 93.73 → 86.38 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -4.8% | 区间外 | 90.75 → 86.38 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 92.47 → 86.38 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 92.12 → 86.38 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 93.01 → 86.38 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 94.10 → 86.38 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -8.6% | 区间外 | 94.48 → 86.38 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -7.2% | 区间外 | 93.05 → 86.38 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 92.50 → 86.38 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 92.00 → 86.38 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -5.3% | 区间内 | 91.17 → 86.38 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.0% | -2.4% | 区间外 | 90.80 → 88.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.0% | -2.4% | 区间外 | 90.84 → 88.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.6% | -3.5% | 区间外 | 91.82 → 88.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.5% | -3.8% | 区间外 | 92.13 → 88.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -5.2% | 区间外 | 93.50 → 88.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -4.2% | 区间外 | 92.50 → 88.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | -5.4% | 区间外 | 93.72 → 88.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -5.4% | 区间外 | 93.73 → 88.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 90.75 → 88.64 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 92.47 → 88.64 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 92.12 → 88.64 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 93.01 → 88.64 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -5.8% | 区间外 | 94.10 → 88.64 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 94.48 → 88.64 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 93.05 → 88.64 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.