MDT historial de movimiento esperado Medtronic Plc
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango68%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado68%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.4%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.6%
Error medio abs.2.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 92.47 | ±2.8% | 89.91–95.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 94.75 | ±2.7% | 92.22–97.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 94.23 | ±2.9% | 91.53–96.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 92.89 | ±4.0% | 89.13–96.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 88.00 | ±5.7% | 82.97–93.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 87.73 | ±6.3% | 82.25–93.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 85.65 | ±6.4% | 80.17–91.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 87.09 | ±5.7% | 82.15–92.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 88.29 | ±4.7% | 84.15–92.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 86.38 | ±6.1% | 81.12–91.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 86.44 | ±7.7% | 79.78–93.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 90.80 | ±6.3% | 85.08–96.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 90.84 | ±6.3% | 85.12–96.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 91.82 | ±6.3% | 86.08–97.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 92.13 | ±7.0% | 85.67–98.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 93.50 | ±6.5% | 87.47–99.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 92.50 | ±6.6% | 86.38–98.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 93.72 | ±6.8% | 87.36–100.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 93.73 | ±6.4% | 87.68–99.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 90.75 | ±6.1% | 85.23–96.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 92.47 | ±6.5% | 86.47–98.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 92.12 | ±6.5% | 86.13–98.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 93.01 | ±8.1% | 85.49–100.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 94.10 | ±6.9% | 87.58–100.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 94.48 | ±6.2% | 88.59–100.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 93.05 | ±7.3% | 86.27–99.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 92.47 | ±4.1% | 88.68–96.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 94.75 | ±3.8% | 91.12–98.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 94.23 | ±4.6% | 89.86–98.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 92.89 | ±5.3% | 87.98–97.80 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 94.75 → 94.75 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +0.5% | dentro | 94.23 → 94.75 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +2.0% | fuera | 92.89 → 94.75 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +7.7% | fuera | 88.00 → 94.75 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +8.0% | fuera | 87.73 → 94.75 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +10.6% | fuera | 85.65 → 94.75 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +8.8% | fuera | 87.09 → 94.75 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +7.3% | fuera | 88.29 → 94.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +9.7% | fuera | 86.38 → 94.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +9.6% | fuera | 86.44 → 94.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +4.3% | dentro | 90.80 → 94.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +4.3% | dentro | 90.84 → 94.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +3.2% | dentro | 91.82 → 94.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +2.8% | dentro | 92.13 → 94.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +1.3% | dentro | 93.50 → 94.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +2.4% | dentro | 92.50 → 94.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +1.1% | dentro | 93.72 → 94.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +1.1% | dentro | 93.73 → 94.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +4.4% | dentro | 90.75 → 94.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +2.5% | dentro | 92.47 → 94.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +2.8% | dentro | 92.12 → 94.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +1.9% | dentro | 93.01 → 94.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +0.7% | dentro | 94.10 → 94.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 94.48 → 94.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +1.8% | dentro | 93.05 → 94.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +2.4% | dentro | 92.50 → 94.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +3.0% | dentro | 92.00 → 94.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +3.9% | dentro | 91.17 → 94.75 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +0.5% | dentro | 88.00 → 88.48 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +0.9% | dentro | 87.73 → 88.48 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +3.3% | fuera | 85.65 → 88.48 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.6% | dentro | 87.09 → 88.48 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 88.29 → 88.48 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.4% | dentro | 86.38 → 88.48 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +2.4% | dentro | 86.44 → 88.48 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -2.6% | dentro | 90.80 → 88.48 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -2.6% | dentro | 90.84 → 88.48 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -3.6% | dentro | 91.82 → 88.48 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -4.0% | dentro | 92.13 → 88.48 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -5.4% | dentro | 93.50 → 88.48 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -4.4% | dentro | 92.50 → 88.48 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -5.6% | dentro | 93.72 → 88.48 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -5.6% | fuera | 93.73 → 88.48 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -2.5% | dentro | 90.75 → 88.48 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -4.3% | dentro | 92.47 → 88.48 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -4.0% | dentro | 92.12 → 88.48 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -4.9% | dentro | 93.01 → 88.48 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -6.0% | dentro | 94.10 → 88.48 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -6.4% | fuera | 94.48 → 88.48 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -4.9% | dentro | 93.05 → 88.48 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -4.3% | dentro | 92.50 → 88.48 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -3.8% | dentro | 92.00 → 88.48 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -3.0% | dentro | 91.17 → 88.48 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | dentro | 86.38 → 86.38 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -0.1% | dentro | 86.44 → 86.38 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -4.9% | fuera | 90.80 → 86.38 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -4.9% | fuera | 90.84 → 86.38 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -5.9% | fuera | 91.82 → 86.38 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -6.2% | fuera | 92.13 → 86.38 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -7.6% | fuera | 93.50 → 86.38 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.