MDB historial de movimiento esperado MongoDB, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango72%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado72%
Movimiento esperado promedio±10.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.7%
Error medio abs.5.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 347.69 | ±5.7% | 327.71–367.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 337.57 | ±7.4% | 312.69–362.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 356.13 | ±7.8% | 328.28–383.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 373.29 | ±8.1% | 343.09–403.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 386.01 | ±8.4% | 353.76–418.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 371.00 | ±8.8% | 338.25–403.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 363.97 | ±9.4% | 329.89–398.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 360.50 | ±9.5% | 326.35–394.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 359.00 | ±9.9% | 323.32–394.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 358.26 | ±10.3% | 321.38–395.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 351.00 | ±11.3% | 311.40–390.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 428.00 | ±14.2% | 367.25–488.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 428.00 | ±14.2% | 367.25–488.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 396.97 | ±13.3% | 344.17–449.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 384.91 | ±13.5% | 332.99–436.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 378.00 | ±13.9% | 325.45–430.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 381.80 | ±13.7% | 329.43–434.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 387.56 | ±14.3% | 332.23–442.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 381.50 | ±14.4% | 326.57–436.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 373.99 | ±15.3% | 316.67–431.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 371.83 | ±15.2% | 315.43–428.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 361.61 | ±15.3% | 306.41–416.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 357.00 | ±15.5% | 301.70–412.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 368.65 | ±16.0% | 309.50–427.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 376.05 | ±15.1% | 319.37–432.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 384.00 | ±15.1% | 325.90–442.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 347.69 | ±9.2% | 315.67–379.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 337.57 | ±10.6% | 301.85–373.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 356.13 | ±10.6% | 318.45–393.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 373.29 | ±10.8% | 333.14–413.44 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 337.57 → 337.57 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -5.2% | fuera | 356.13 → 337.57 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -9.6% | fuera | 373.29 → 337.57 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -12.5% | fuera | 386.01 → 337.57 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -9.0% | fuera | 371.00 → 337.57 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -7.3% | fuera | 363.97 → 337.57 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -6.4% | dentro | 360.50 → 337.57 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -6.0% | dentro | 359.00 → 337.57 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -5.8% | dentro | 358.26 → 337.57 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -3.8% | dentro | 351.00 → 337.57 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -21.1% | fuera | 428.00 → 337.57 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -21.1% | fuera | 428.00 → 337.57 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -15.0% | fuera | 396.97 → 337.57 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -12.3% | fuera | 384.91 → 337.57 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | -10.7% | dentro | 378.00 → 337.57 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | -11.6% | dentro | 381.80 → 337.57 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -12.9% | dentro | 387.56 → 337.57 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | -11.5% | dentro | 381.50 → 337.57 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.1% | -9.7% | dentro | 373.99 → 337.57 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | -9.2% | dentro | 371.83 → 337.57 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -6.6% | dentro | 361.61 → 337.57 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | -5.4% | dentro | 357.00 → 337.57 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | -8.4% | dentro | 368.65 → 337.57 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | -10.2% | dentro | 376.05 → 337.57 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.2% | -12.1% | dentro | 384.00 → 337.57 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | -11.0% | dentro | 379.20 → 337.57 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±27.1% | -9.2% | dentro | 371.98 → 337.57 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.3% | -25.6% | fuera | 453.51 → 337.57 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.0% | dentro | 386.01 → 385.93 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +4.0% | fuera | 371.00 → 385.93 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +6.0% | fuera | 363.97 → 385.93 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +7.1% | fuera | 360.50 → 385.93 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +7.5% | fuera | 359.00 → 385.93 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +7.7% | fuera | 358.26 → 385.93 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +10.0% | fuera | 351.00 → 385.93 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -9.8% | dentro | 428.00 → 385.93 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -9.8% | dentro | 428.00 → 385.93 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -2.8% | dentro | 396.97 → 385.93 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +0.3% | dentro | 384.91 → 385.93 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +2.1% | dentro | 378.00 → 385.93 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +1.1% | dentro | 381.80 → 385.93 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -0.4% | dentro | 387.56 → 385.93 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | +1.2% | dentro | 381.50 → 385.93 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +3.2% | dentro | 373.99 → 385.93 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | +3.8% | dentro | 371.83 → 385.93 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +6.7% | dentro | 361.61 → 385.93 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +8.1% | dentro | 357.00 → 385.93 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +4.7% | dentro | 368.65 → 385.93 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +2.6% | dentro | 376.05 → 385.93 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | +0.5% | dentro | 384.00 → 385.93 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | +1.8% | dentro | 379.20 → 385.93 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±26.2% | +3.8% | dentro | 371.98 → 385.93 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.8% | -14.9% | dentro | 453.51 → 385.93 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 358.26 → 357.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +2.0% | dentro | 351.00 → 357.96 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -16.4% | fuera | 428.00 → 357.96 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -16.4% | fuera | 428.00 → 357.96 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | -9.8% | fuera | 396.97 → 357.96 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -7.0% | dentro | 384.91 → 357.96 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | -5.3% | dentro | 378.00 → 357.96 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.