MCD histórico de movimento esperado McDonald's Corporation
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo30%
|Real| abaixo do esperado30%
Movimento esperado médio±3.4%
Movimento |real| médio5.1%
Erro médio absoluto2.2pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 242.75 | ±2.0% | 237.88–247.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 242.79 | ±2.4% | 236.93–248.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 238.04 | ±2.9% | 231.06–245.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 236.17 | ±2.9% | 229.43–242.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 235.65 | ±3.2% | 228.18–243.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 237.00 | ±3.5% | 228.72–245.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 231.08 | ±3.5% | 223.00–239.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 232.79 | ±3.6% | 224.41–241.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 233.10 | ±3.7% | 224.45–241.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 232.06 | ±4.1% | 222.61–241.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 231.96 | ±4.3% | 221.99–241.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 251.17 | ±5.3% | 237.97–264.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 250.83 | ±5.3% | 237.63–264.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 248.22 | ±5.3% | 235.15–261.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 248.96 | ±5.2% | 235.94–261.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 248.93 | ±5.5% | 235.13–262.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 249.14 | ±5.5% | 235.31–262.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 253.01 | ±5.7% | 238.61–267.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 257.57 | ±5.6% | 243.03–272.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 252.62 | ±5.7% | 238.27–266.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 253.10 | ±5.8% | 238.30–267.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 253.72 | ±6.0% | 238.47–268.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 256.08 | ±6.0% | 240.73–271.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 256.00 | ±6.1% | 240.50–271.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 256.05 | ±6.1% | 240.55–271.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 259.87 | ±6.1% | 244.12–275.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 242.75 | ±3.1% | 235.12–250.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 242.79 | ±3.5% | 234.29–251.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 238.04 | ±3.9% | 228.72–247.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 236.17 | ±3.8% | 227.29–245.04 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 242.79 → 242.97 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +2.1% | fora | 238.04 → 242.97 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +2.9% | fora | 236.17 → 242.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +3.1% | fora | 235.65 → 242.97 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +2.5% | dentro | 237.00 → 242.97 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +5.1% | fora | 231.08 → 242.97 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +4.4% | fora | 232.79 → 242.97 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +4.2% | fora | 233.10 → 242.97 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +4.7% | fora | 232.06 → 242.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +4.7% | fora | 231.96 → 242.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -3.3% | dentro | 251.17 → 242.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -3.1% | dentro | 250.83 → 242.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -2.1% | dentro | 248.22 → 242.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -2.4% | dentro | 248.96 → 242.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -2.4% | dentro | 248.93 → 242.97 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -2.5% | dentro | 249.14 → 242.97 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -4.0% | dentro | 253.01 → 242.97 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -5.7% | fora | 257.57 → 242.97 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -3.8% | dentro | 252.62 → 242.97 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -4.0% | dentro | 253.10 → 242.97 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -4.2% | dentro | 253.72 → 242.97 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -5.1% | dentro | 256.08 → 242.97 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -5.1% | dentro | 256.00 → 242.97 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -5.1% | dentro | 256.05 → 242.97 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -6.5% | fora | 259.87 → 242.97 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -6.9% | fora | 261.00 → 242.97 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -7.1% | fora | 261.52 → 242.97 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -8.0% | fora | 264.06 → 242.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 235.65 → 235.23 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | -0.7% | dentro | 237.00 → 235.23 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +1.8% | fora | 231.08 → 235.23 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +1.0% | dentro | 232.79 → 235.23 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +0.9% | dentro | 233.10 → 235.23 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +1.4% | dentro | 232.06 → 235.23 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +1.4% | dentro | 231.96 → 235.23 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -6.3% | fora | 251.17 → 235.23 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -6.2% | fora | 250.83 → 235.23 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -5.2% | fora | 248.22 → 235.23 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -5.5% | fora | 248.96 → 235.23 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -5.5% | fora | 248.93 → 235.23 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -5.6% | fora | 249.14 → 235.23 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -7.0% | fora | 253.01 → 235.23 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -8.7% | fora | 257.57 → 235.23 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -6.9% | fora | 252.62 → 235.23 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -7.1% | fora | 253.10 → 235.23 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -7.3% | fora | 253.72 → 235.23 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -8.1% | fora | 256.08 → 235.23 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -8.1% | fora | 256.00 → 235.23 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -8.1% | fora | 256.05 → 235.23 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -9.5% | fora | 259.87 → 235.23 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -9.9% | fora | 261.00 → 235.23 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -10.1% | fora | 261.52 → 235.23 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -10.9% | fora | 264.06 → 235.23 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 232.06 → 231.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 231.96 → 231.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -7.7% | fora | 251.17 → 231.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -7.6% | fora | 250.83 → 231.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -6.6% | fora | 248.22 → 231.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -6.9% | fora | 248.96 → 231.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -6.8% | fora | 248.93 → 231.89 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.