MARA 预期波动历史 Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内57%
|实际值| 低于预期值57%
平均预期波动幅度±12.3%
平均|实际|波动幅度11.0%
平均绝对误差6.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 7.58 | ±0.9% | 7.51–7.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 8.22 | ±6.8% | 7.66–8.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 9.13 | ±6.5% | 8.54–9.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 9.67 | ±7.4% | 8.96–10.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 9.93 | ±8.9% | 9.05–10.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 10.37 | ±9.6% | 9.37–11.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 11.00 | ±9.7% | 9.93–12.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 11.16 | ±10.6% | 9.98–12.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 11.26 | ±12.0% | 9.91–12.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 11.20 | ±12.4% | 9.82–12.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 13.63 | ±16.6% | 11.37–15.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 13.61 | ±16.6% | 11.35–15.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 13.31 | ±17.7% | 10.96–15.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 13.26 | ±18.1% | 10.85–15.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 11.62 | ±18.8% | 9.43–13.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 11.07 | ±19.4% | 8.92–13.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 11.21 | ±20.1% | 8.96–13.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 11.49 | ±20.5% | 9.14–13.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 11.98 | ±20.5% | 9.52–14.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 11.46 | ±21.2% | 9.03–13.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 11.87 | ±21.9% | 9.27–14.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 11.83 | ±22.6% | 9.15–14.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 11.30 | ±22.0% | 8.82–13.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 11.29 | ±22.0% | 8.80–13.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 11.58 | ±23.8% | 8.82–14.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 10.42 | ±22.5% | 8.07–12.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 10.25 | ±23.0% | 7.89–12.61 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 10.76 | ±23.6% | 8.22–13.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 7.58 | ±10.6% | 6.78–8.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 8.22 | ±12.3% | 7.21–9.23 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 9.67 → 9.65 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 9.93 → 9.65 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -6.9% | 区间外 | 10.37 → 9.65 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -12.3% | 区间外 | 11.00 → 9.65 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -13.5% | 区间外 | 11.16 → 9.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -14.3% | 区间外 | 11.26 → 9.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -13.8% | 区间外 | 11.20 → 9.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.9% | -29.2% | 区间外 | 13.63 → 9.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.0% | -29.1% | 区间外 | 13.61 → 9.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | -27.5% | 区间外 | 13.31 → 9.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | -27.2% | 区间外 | 13.26 → 9.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | -17.0% | 区间外 | 11.62 → 9.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.9% | -12.8% | 区间内 | 11.07 → 9.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.6% | -13.9% | 区间内 | 11.21 → 9.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.2% | -16.0% | 区间内 | 11.49 → 9.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.4% | -19.4% | 区间外 | 11.98 → 9.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.2% | -15.8% | 区间内 | 11.46 → 9.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.8% | -18.7% | 区间内 | 11.87 → 9.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.2% | -18.4% | 区间内 | 11.83 → 9.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.2% | -14.6% | 区间内 | 11.30 → 9.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.2% | -14.5% | 区间内 | 11.29 → 9.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.6% | -16.7% | 区间内 | 11.58 → 9.65 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.6% | -7.4% | 区间内 | 10.42 → 9.65 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.8% | -5.9% | 区间内 | 10.25 → 9.65 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.2% | -10.3% | 区间内 | 10.76 → 9.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 11.26 → 11.23 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 11.20 → 11.23 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.9% | -17.6% | 区间外 | 13.63 → 11.23 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.9% | -17.5% | 区间外 | 13.61 → 11.23 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.9% | -15.6% | 区间外 | 13.31 → 11.23 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.0% | -15.3% | 区间外 | 13.26 → 11.23 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.2% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 11.62 → 11.23 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.3% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 11.07 → 11.23 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.1% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 11.21 → 11.23 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.6% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 11.49 → 11.23 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±15.9% | -6.3% | 区间内 | 11.98 → 11.23 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.6% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 11.46 → 11.23 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.6% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 11.87 → 11.23 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.2% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 11.83 → 11.23 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.1% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 11.30 → 11.23 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.1% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 11.29 → 11.23 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±19.1% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 11.58 → 11.23 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.7% | +7.8% | 区间内 | 10.42 → 11.23 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.5% | +9.6% | 区间内 | 10.25 → 11.23 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±19.4% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 10.76 → 11.23 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.6% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 13.63 → 12.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 13.61 → 12.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -5.7% | 区间内 | 13.31 → 12.55 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.2% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 13.26 → 12.55 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.6% | +8.0% | 区间内 | 11.62 → 12.55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.8% | +13.4% | 区间外 | 11.07 → 12.55 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.8% | +12.0% | 区间外 | 11.21 → 12.55 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.4% | +9.2% | 区间内 | 11.49 → 12.55 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±12.7% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 11.98 → 12.55 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.8% | +9.5% | 区间内 | 11.46 → 12.55 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±14.6% | +5.7% | 区间内 | 11.87 → 12.55 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±15.5% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 11.83 → 12.55 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±15.3% | +11.0% | 区间内 | 11.30 → 12.55 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±15.3% | +11.2% | 区间内 | 11.29 → 12.55 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±17.1% | +8.4% | 区间内 | 11.58 → 12.55 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.