MARA geschiedenis verwachte beweging Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.
Elke handelsdag na de sluiting leggen we vast wat de optiemarkt inprijst — per vervaldatum, voordat de uitkomst bekend is. Wanneer een vervaldatum passeert, wordt de uitkomst naast de oorspronkelijke schatting vermeld. Schattingen worden achteraf nooit herzien. Hoe deze statistieken te lezen · vastlegging sinds Aug 31, 2026
Vergelijkingen opgelost121
Sluiting binnen bandbreedte45%
|Werkelijk| onder verwacht45%
Gem. verwachte beweging±13.3%
Gem. |werkelijke| beweging15.6%
Gem. abs. fout8.3pt
Impliciet vs. gerealiseerd, per expiratie
Voor elke vervaldatum: de oranje omlijning is de expected move die het dichtst bij de vervaldatum is vastgelegd; de solide balk is wat het aandeel werkelijk heeft gedaan. Getekende waarden staan onder de balken vermeld.
verwacht (vastgelegd)werkelijk
Momenteel vastgelegd (uitkomst nog onbekend)
| Snapshot | Vervalt | DTE | Spot destijds | Expected move | Bereik | Methode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 7.41 | ±8.6% | 6.77–8.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 7.58 | ±10.6% | 6.78–8.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 8.22 | ±12.3% | 7.21–9.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 9.13 | ±10.1% | 8.21–10.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 9.67 | ±10.4% | 8.66–10.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 9.93 | ±11.8% | 8.76–11.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 10.37 | ±12.8% | 9.04–11.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 11.00 | ±12.6% | 9.61–12.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 11.16 | ±13.5% | 9.65–12.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 11.26 | ±14.8% | 9.59–12.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 11.20 | ±15.0% | 9.52–12.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 13.63 | ±18.7% | 11.07–16.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 13.61 | ±18.8% | 11.05–16.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 13.31 | ±19.7% | 10.69–15.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 13.26 | ±20.6% | 10.52–15.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 11.62 | ±20.5% | 9.24–14.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 11.07 | ±21.5% | 8.69–13.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 11.21 | ±22.1% | 8.73–13.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 11.49 | ±22.6% | 8.89–14.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 11.98 | ±22.3% | 9.30–14.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 11.46 | ±23.5% | 8.77–14.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 11.87 | ±24.2% | 8.99–14.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 11.83 | ±24.7% | 8.91–14.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 11.30 | ±24.1% | 8.58–14.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 11.29 | ±24.1% | 8.56–14.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 11.58 | ±24.4% | 8.76–14.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 7.41 | ±13.1% | 6.44–8.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 7.58 | ±14.4% | 6.49–8.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 8.22 | ±15.0% | 6.99–9.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 9.13 | ±13.2% | 7.92–10.34 | em-1.0 |
Vastgelegde snapshots
| Snapshot | Verlopen | Verwacht | Werkelijk | Binnen bereik? | Spot → slotkoers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | -0.7% | binnen | 7.58 → 7.53 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -8.4% | buiten | 8.22 → 7.53 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -17.5% | buiten | 9.13 → 7.53 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -22.1% | buiten | 9.67 → 7.53 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -24.2% | buiten | 9.93 → 7.53 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -27.4% | buiten | 10.37 → 7.53 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -31.5% | buiten | 11.00 → 7.53 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -32.5% | buiten | 11.16 → 7.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -33.1% | buiten | 11.26 → 7.53 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | -32.8% | buiten | 11.20 → 7.53 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.6% | -44.8% | buiten | 13.63 → 7.53 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.6% | -44.7% | buiten | 13.61 → 7.53 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.7% | -43.4% | buiten | 13.31 → 7.53 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.1% | -43.2% | buiten | 13.26 → 7.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.8% | -35.2% | buiten | 11.62 → 7.53 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.4% | -32.0% | buiten | 11.07 → 7.53 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.1% | -32.8% | buiten | 11.21 → 7.53 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.5% | -34.5% | buiten | 11.49 → 7.53 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.5% | -37.1% | buiten | 11.98 → 7.53 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.2% | -34.3% | buiten | 11.46 → 7.53 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.9% | -36.6% | buiten | 11.87 → 7.53 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±22.6% | -36.3% | buiten | 11.83 → 7.53 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±22.0% | -33.4% | buiten | 11.30 → 7.53 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±22.0% | -33.3% | buiten | 11.29 → 7.53 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±23.8% | -35.0% | buiten | 11.58 → 7.53 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±22.5% | -27.7% | buiten | 10.42 → 7.53 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±23.0% | -26.5% | buiten | 10.25 → 7.53 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±23.6% | -30.0% | buiten | 10.76 → 7.53 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | -0.2% | binnen | 9.67 → 9.65 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -2.8% | binnen | 9.93 → 9.65 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -6.9% | buiten | 10.37 → 9.65 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -12.3% | buiten | 11.00 → 9.65 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -13.5% | buiten | 11.16 → 9.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -14.3% | buiten | 11.26 → 9.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -13.8% | buiten | 11.20 → 9.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.9% | -29.2% | buiten | 13.63 → 9.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.0% | -29.1% | buiten | 13.61 → 9.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | -27.5% | buiten | 13.31 → 9.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | -27.2% | buiten | 13.26 → 9.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | -17.0% | buiten | 11.62 → 9.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.9% | -12.8% | binnen | 11.07 → 9.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.6% | -13.9% | binnen | 11.21 → 9.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.2% | -16.0% | binnen | 11.49 → 9.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.4% | -19.4% | buiten | 11.98 → 9.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.2% | -15.8% | binnen | 11.46 → 9.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.8% | -18.7% | binnen | 11.87 → 9.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.2% | -18.4% | binnen | 11.83 → 9.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.2% | -14.6% | binnen | 11.30 → 9.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.2% | -14.5% | binnen | 11.29 → 9.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.6% | -16.7% | binnen | 11.58 → 9.65 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.6% | -7.4% | binnen | 10.42 → 9.65 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.8% | -5.9% | binnen | 10.25 → 9.65 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.2% | -10.3% | binnen | 10.76 → 9.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -0.3% | binnen | 11.26 → 11.23 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | +0.3% | binnen | 11.20 → 11.23 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.9% | -17.6% | buiten | 13.63 → 11.23 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.9% | -17.5% | buiten | 13.61 → 11.23 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.9% | -15.6% | buiten | 13.31 → 11.23 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.0% | -15.3% | buiten | 13.26 → 11.23 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.2% | -3.4% | binnen | 11.62 → 11.23 |
Uitkomsten vergelijken de geregistreerde bandbreedte met de slotkoers op de expiratiedag. De methodversie wordt per rij weergegeven waar deze afwijkt; huidig: em-1.0.