MAR 预期波动历史 Marriott International, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内31%
|实际值| 低于预期值31%
平均预期波动幅度±4.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度6.4%
平均绝对误差3.1pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 390.70 | ±2.1% | 382.65–398.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 388.05 | ±2.6% | 377.85–398.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 370.80 | ±2.9% | 360.15–381.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 371.50 | ±3.1% | 360.10–382.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 365.88 | ±3.4% | 353.33–378.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 361.08 | ±3.9% | 346.98–375.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 356.98 | ±4.0% | 342.78–371.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 361.28 | ±4.0% | 346.98–375.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 355.89 | ±4.3% | 340.69–371.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 358.96 | ±4.4% | 343.06–374.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 354.79 | ±4.7% | 338.04–371.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 342.65 | ±5.9% | 322.55–362.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 342.65 | ±5.9% | 322.55–362.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 341.16 | ±5.9% | 321.01–361.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 334.00 | ±6.4% | 312.75–355.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 334.38 | ±6.8% | 311.53–357.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 337.23 | ±6.7% | 314.68–359.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 336.52 | ±7.1% | 312.77–360.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 337.36 | ±7.0% | 313.76–360.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 329.50 | ±7.5% | 304.85–354.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 332.09 | ±7.5% | 307.04–357.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 331.37 | ±7.4% | 306.92–355.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 332.25 | ±7.7% | 306.69–357.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 332.25 | ±7.7% | 306.69–357.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 332.25 | ±7.7% | 306.69–357.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 332.25 | ±7.7% | 306.69–357.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 390.70 | ±3.3% | 377.70–403.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 388.05 | ±3.7% | 373.55–402.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 370.80 | ±4.2% | 355.20–386.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 371.50 | ±4.1% | 356.45–386.55 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 388.05 → 388.05 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +4.7% | 区间外 | 370.80 → 388.05 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +4.5% | 区间外 | 371.50 → 388.05 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +6.1% | 区间外 | 365.88 → 388.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 361.08 → 388.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +8.7% | 区间外 | 356.98 → 388.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +7.4% | 区间外 | 361.28 → 388.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +9.0% | 区间外 | 355.89 → 388.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +8.1% | 区间外 | 358.96 → 388.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +9.4% | 区间外 | 354.79 → 388.05 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +13.2% | 区间外 | 342.65 → 388.05 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +13.2% | 区间外 | 342.65 → 388.05 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +13.7% | 区间外 | 341.16 → 388.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +16.2% | 区间外 | 334.00 → 388.05 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +16.1% | 区间外 | 334.38 → 388.05 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +15.1% | 区间外 | 337.23 → 388.05 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +15.3% | 区间外 | 336.52 → 388.05 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +15.0% | 区间外 | 337.36 → 388.05 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +17.8% | 区间外 | 329.50 → 388.05 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +16.9% | 区间外 | 332.09 → 388.05 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +17.1% | 区间外 | 331.37 → 388.05 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +16.8% | 区间外 | 332.25 → 388.05 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +16.8% | 区间外 | 332.25 → 388.05 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +16.8% | 区间外 | 332.25 → 388.05 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +16.8% | 区间外 | 332.25 → 388.05 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +16.5% | 区间外 | 333.14 → 388.05 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +13.4% | 区间外 | 342.30 → 388.05 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +10.5% | 区间外 | 351.08 → 388.05 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 365.88 → 365.88 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 361.08 → 365.88 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +2.5% | 区间外 | 356.98 → 365.88 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 361.28 → 365.88 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +2.8% | 区间外 | 355.89 → 365.88 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 358.96 → 365.88 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +3.1% | 区间外 | 354.79 → 365.88 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +6.8% | 区间外 | 342.65 → 365.88 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +6.8% | 区间外 | 342.65 → 365.88 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +7.2% | 区间外 | 341.16 → 365.88 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 334.00 → 365.88 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +9.4% | 区间外 | 334.38 → 365.88 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +8.5% | 区间外 | 337.23 → 365.88 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +8.7% | 区间外 | 336.52 → 365.88 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +8.5% | 区间外 | 337.36 → 365.88 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +11.0% | 区间外 | 329.50 → 365.88 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +10.2% | 区间外 | 332.09 → 365.88 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +10.4% | 区间外 | 331.37 → 365.88 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 332.25 → 365.88 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 332.25 → 365.88 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 332.25 → 365.88 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 332.25 → 365.88 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +9.8% | 区间外 | 333.14 → 365.88 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +6.9% | 区间外 | 342.30 → 365.88 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 351.08 → 365.88 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 358.96 → 358.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.4% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 354.79 → 358.96 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | +4.8% | 区间外 | 342.65 → 358.96 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | +4.8% | 区间外 | 342.65 → 358.96 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +5.2% | 区间外 | 341.16 → 358.96 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 334.00 → 358.96 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | +7.3% | 区间外 | 334.38 → 358.96 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.