LRCX historial de movimiento esperado Lam Research Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango55%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado55%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio9.2%
Error medio abs.5.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 273.88 | ±7.9% | 252.35–295.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 265.55 | ±8.1% | 243.95–287.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 286.07 | ±9.2% | 259.80–312.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 301.48 | ±9.6% | 272.63–330.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 319.50 | ±9.9% | 287.80–351.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 321.70 | ±10.8% | 287.10–356.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 329.51 | ±10.3% | 295.49–363.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 333.89 | ±10.5% | 298.74–369.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 345.40 | ±10.8% | 308.10–382.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 347.88 | ±11.8% | 306.93–388.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 340.00 | ±12.5% | 297.62–382.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 310.50 | ±14.3% | 266.07–354.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 310.50 | ±14.3% | 266.07–354.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 302.48 | ±14.6% | 258.35–346.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 287.60 | ±14.6% | 245.65–329.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 269.31 | ±14.6% | 229.94–308.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 268.72 | ±15.2% | 227.97–309.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 271.20 | ±15.1% | 230.20–312.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 276.00 | ±15.6% | 232.82–319.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 299.11 | ±16.2% | 250.69–347.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 298.60 | ±17.0% | 247.80–349.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 316.49 | ±17.4% | 261.31–371.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 324.10 | ±18.3% | 264.82–383.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 307.48 | ±18.5% | 250.63–364.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 302.68 | ±17.6% | 249.45–355.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 292.47 | ±17.0% | 242.67–342.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 273.88 | ±9.8% | 247.13–300.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 265.55 | ±10.3% | 238.25–292.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 286.07 | ±11.2% | 254.15–318.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 301.48 | ±11.3% | 267.36–335.61 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | -0.6% | dentro | 265.55 → 263.94 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -7.7% | fuera | 286.07 → 263.94 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -12.5% | fuera | 301.48 → 263.94 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -17.4% | fuera | 319.50 → 263.94 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -18.0% | fuera | 321.70 → 263.94 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -19.9% | fuera | 329.51 → 263.94 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -20.9% | fuera | 333.89 → 263.94 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -23.6% | fuera | 345.40 → 263.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -24.1% | fuera | 347.88 → 263.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -22.4% | fuera | 340.00 → 263.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -15.0% | fuera | 310.50 → 263.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -15.0% | fuera | 310.50 → 263.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -12.7% | fuera | 302.48 → 263.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -8.2% | dentro | 287.60 → 263.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -2.0% | dentro | 269.31 → 263.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | -1.8% | dentro | 268.72 → 263.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -2.7% | dentro | 271.20 → 263.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | -4.4% | dentro | 276.00 → 263.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | -11.8% | dentro | 299.11 → 263.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | -11.6% | dentro | 298.60 → 263.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -16.6% | fuera | 316.49 → 263.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.5% | -18.6% | fuera | 324.10 → 263.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.2% | -14.2% | dentro | 307.48 → 263.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | -12.8% | dentro | 302.68 → 263.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | -9.8% | dentro | 292.47 → 263.94 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.3% | -8.1% | dentro | 287.36 → 263.94 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | -9.1% | dentro | 290.50 → 263.94 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | -12.6% | dentro | 302.00 → 263.94 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 319.50 → 318.84 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -0.9% | dentro | 321.70 → 318.84 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -3.2% | dentro | 329.51 → 318.84 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -4.5% | fuera | 333.89 → 318.84 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -7.7% | fuera | 345.40 → 318.84 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -8.3% | fuera | 347.88 → 318.84 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -6.2% | dentro | 340.00 → 318.84 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +2.7% | dentro | 310.50 → 318.84 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +2.7% | dentro | 310.50 → 318.84 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +5.4% | dentro | 302.48 → 318.84 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +10.9% | fuera | 287.60 → 318.84 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +18.4% | fuera | 269.31 → 318.84 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +18.6% | fuera | 268.72 → 318.84 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +17.6% | fuera | 271.20 → 318.84 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +15.5% | fuera | 276.00 → 318.84 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | +6.6% | dentro | 299.11 → 318.84 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | +6.8% | dentro | 298.60 → 318.84 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +0.7% | dentro | 316.49 → 318.84 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.0% | -1.6% | dentro | 324.10 → 318.84 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | +3.7% | dentro | 307.48 → 318.84 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | +5.3% | dentro | 302.68 → 318.84 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | +9.0% | dentro | 292.47 → 318.84 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +11.0% | dentro | 287.36 → 318.84 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.0% | +9.8% | dentro | 290.50 → 318.84 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | +5.6% | dentro | 302.00 → 318.84 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 347.88 → 347.49 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.7% | +2.2% | dentro | 340.00 → 347.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +11.9% | fuera | 310.50 → 347.49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +11.9% | fuera | 310.50 → 347.49 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +14.9% | fuera | 302.48 → 347.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | +20.8% | fuera | 287.60 → 347.49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | +29.0% | fuera | 269.31 → 347.49 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.