LLY histórico de movimento esperado Eli Lilly and Company
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo75%
|Real| abaixo do esperado75%
Movimento esperado médio±5.0%
Movimento |real| médio3.6%
Erro médio absoluto2.6pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 1,241.00 | ±2.9% | 1,204.95–1,277.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 1,257.15 | ±3.6% | 1,211.60–1,302.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 1,209.51 | ±4.3% | 1,157.54–1,261.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 1,166.51 | ±4.3% | 1,115.84–1,217.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 1,177.40 | ±4.9% | 1,120.20–1,234.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 1,165.00 | ±5.1% | 1,105.83–1,224.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 1,189.50 | ±5.2% | 1,127.60–1,251.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 1,159.00 | ±5.4% | 1,096.58–1,221.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 1,146.25 | ±5.3% | 1,085.70–1,206.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 1,142.85 | ±5.7% | 1,078.10–1,207.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 1,150.28 | ±6.3% | 1,077.91–1,222.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 1,170.23 | ±7.4% | 1,083.36–1,257.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 1,170.52 | ±7.4% | 1,083.91–1,257.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 1,166.00 | ±7.5% | 1,078.55–1,253.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 1,152.75 | ±7.6% | 1,064.97–1,240.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 1,150.06 | ±8.1% | 1,056.56–1,243.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 1,138.34 | ±8.1% | 1,046.57–1,230.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 1,134.29 | ±8.5% | 1,037.74–1,230.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 1,140.05 | ±8.5% | 1,043.55–1,236.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 1,116.00 | ±8.3% | 1,023.15–1,208.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 1,128.70 | ±9.0% | 1,026.60–1,230.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 1,126.20 | ±9.0% | 1,025.03–1,227.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 1,124.10 | ±9.0% | 1,022.92–1,225.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 1,146.65 | ±9.6% | 1,036.78–1,256.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 1,140.22 | ±9.1% | 1,035.97–1,244.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 1,158.32 | ±9.5% | 1,047.74–1,268.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 1,241.00 | ±7.5% | 1,148.03–1,333.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 1,257.15 | ±7.7% | 1,159.95–1,354.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 1,209.51 | ±8.6% | 1,105.38–1,313.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 1,166.51 | ±8.3% | 1,069.68–1,263.34 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | -0.0% | dentro | 1,257.15 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +3.9% | fora | 1,209.51 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +7.8% | fora | 1,166.51 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +6.8% | fora | 1,177.40 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +7.9% | fora | 1,165.00 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +5.7% | fora | 1,189.50 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +8.5% | fora | 1,159.00 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +9.7% | fora | 1,146.25 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +10.0% | fora | 1,142.85 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +9.3% | fora | 1,150.28 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +7.4% | fora | 1,170.23 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +7.4% | fora | 1,170.52 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +7.8% | fora | 1,166.00 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +9.0% | fora | 1,152.75 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +9.3% | fora | 1,150.06 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +10.4% | fora | 1,138.34 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +10.8% | fora | 1,134.29 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +10.3% | fora | 1,140.05 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +12.6% | fora | 1,116.00 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +11.4% | fora | 1,128.70 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +11.6% | fora | 1,126.20 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +11.8% | fora | 1,124.10 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +9.6% | fora | 1,146.65 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +10.2% | fora | 1,140.22 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +8.5% | dentro | 1,158.32 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +7.8% | dentro | 1,165.99 → 1,257.03 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +8.4% | dentro | 1,159.60 → 1,257.03 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +8.5% | dentro | 1,159.06 → 1,257.03 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.2% | dentro | 1,177.40 → 1,179.27 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.2% | dentro | 1,165.00 → 1,179.27 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 1,189.50 → 1,179.27 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +1.7% | dentro | 1,159.00 → 1,179.27 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.9% | fora | 1,146.25 → 1,179.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +3.2% | fora | 1,142.85 → 1,179.27 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +2.5% | dentro | 1,150.28 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +0.8% | dentro | 1,170.23 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +0.7% | dentro | 1,170.52 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +1.1% | dentro | 1,166.00 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +2.3% | dentro | 1,152.75 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +2.5% | dentro | 1,150.06 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +3.6% | dentro | 1,138.34 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +4.0% | dentro | 1,134.29 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +3.4% | dentro | 1,140.05 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +5.7% | dentro | 1,116.00 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +4.5% | dentro | 1,128.70 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +4.7% | dentro | 1,126.20 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +4.9% | dentro | 1,124.10 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +2.8% | dentro | 1,146.65 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +3.4% | dentro | 1,140.22 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +1.8% | dentro | 1,158.32 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +1.1% | dentro | 1,165.99 → 1,179.27 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +1.7% | dentro | 1,159.60 → 1,179.27 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +1.7% | dentro | 1,159.06 → 1,179.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 1,142.85 → 1,142.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | -0.6% | dentro | 1,150.28 → 1,142.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -2.3% | dentro | 1,170.23 → 1,142.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -2.4% | dentro | 1,170.52 → 1,142.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -2.0% | dentro | 1,166.00 → 1,142.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -0.9% | dentro | 1,152.75 → 1,142.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -0.6% | dentro | 1,150.06 → 1,142.85 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.