LI histórico de movimento esperado Li Auto Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo77%
|Real| abaixo do esperado77%
Movimento esperado médio±7.5%
Movimento |real| médio4.7%
Erro médio absoluto3.7pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 11.35 | ±1.6% | 11.16–11.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 11.26 | ±3.9% | 10.82–11.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 11.77 | ±4.1% | 11.29–12.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 11.55 | ±4.5% | 11.03–12.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 10.90 | ±6.2% | 10.22–11.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 10.99 | ±4.8% | 10.46–11.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 10.89 | ±6.1% | 10.22–11.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 10.85 | ±6.3% | 10.16–11.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 10.67 | ±10.0% | 9.60–11.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 11.12 | ±8.1% | 10.22–12.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 11.57 | ±9.4% | 10.48–12.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 11.57 | ±9.4% | 10.48–12.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 12.15 | ±8.8% | 11.07–13.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 12.08 | ±9.1% | 10.98–13.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 11.86 | ±10.1% | 10.66–13.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 11.96 | ±10.3% | 10.72–13.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 11.85 | ±9.2% | 10.76–12.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 11.85 | ±9.2% | 10.76–12.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 11.68 | ±11.6% | 10.32–13.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 11.94 | ±9.8% | 10.78–13.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 12.36 | ±10.8% | 11.02–13.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 12.36 | ±10.8% | 11.02–13.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 12.36 | ±10.8% | 11.02–13.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 12.28 | ±11.3% | 10.89–13.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 12.00 | ±11.1% | 10.66–13.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 11.89 | ±12.4% | 10.41–13.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 11.89 | ±12.4% | 10.41–13.37 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 12.19 | ±13.8% | 10.51–13.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 11.35 | ±5.3% | 10.74–11.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 11.26 | ±6.3% | 10.55–11.97 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | -0.1% | dentro | 11.55 → 11.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +5.9% | fora | 10.90 → 11.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +5.0% | fora | 10.99 → 11.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +6.0% | fora | 10.89 → 11.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +6.4% | fora | 10.85 → 11.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +8.2% | fora | 10.67 → 11.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +3.8% | dentro | 11.12 → 11.54 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 11.57 → 11.54 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 11.57 → 11.54 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -5.0% | dentro | 12.15 → 11.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -4.5% | dentro | 12.08 → 11.54 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 11.86 → 11.54 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -3.5% | dentro | 11.96 → 11.54 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -2.6% | dentro | 11.85 → 11.54 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -2.6% | dentro | 11.85 → 11.54 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 11.68 → 11.54 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -3.4% | dentro | 11.94 → 11.54 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -6.6% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.54 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -6.6% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.54 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -6.6% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.54 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -6.0% | dentro | 12.28 → 11.54 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -3.8% | dentro | 12.00 → 11.54 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -2.9% | dentro | 11.89 → 11.54 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -2.9% | dentro | 11.89 → 11.54 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -5.3% | dentro | 12.19 → 11.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | +0.2% | dentro | 10.67 → 10.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -3.9% | fora | 11.12 → 10.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -7.6% | fora | 11.57 → 10.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -7.6% | fora | 11.57 → 10.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -12.0% | fora | 12.15 → 10.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -11.5% | fora | 12.08 → 10.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -9.9% | fora | 11.86 → 10.69 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -10.6% | fora | 11.96 → 10.69 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -9.8% | fora | 11.85 → 10.69 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -9.8% | fora | 11.85 → 10.69 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -8.5% | fora | 11.68 → 10.69 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -10.5% | fora | 11.94 → 10.69 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.2% | -13.5% | dentro | 12.36 → 10.69 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.2% | -13.5% | dentro | 12.36 → 10.69 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.2% | -13.5% | dentro | 12.36 → 10.69 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | -12.9% | fora | 12.28 → 10.69 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.6% | -10.9% | dentro | 12.00 → 10.69 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.8% | -10.1% | fora | 11.89 → 10.69 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.8% | -10.1% | fora | 11.89 → 10.69 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.9% | -12.3% | dentro | 12.19 → 10.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -0.6% | dentro | 11.57 → 11.50 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -0.6% | dentro | 11.57 → 11.50 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -5.3% | dentro | 12.15 → 11.50 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.8% | -4.8% | dentro | 12.08 → 11.50 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | -3.0% | dentro | 11.86 → 11.50 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.5% | -3.8% | dentro | 11.96 → 11.50 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.5% | -3.0% | dentro | 11.85 → 11.50 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.5% | -3.0% | dentro | 11.85 → 11.50 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.8% | -1.5% | dentro | 11.68 → 11.50 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.5% | -3.7% | dentro | 11.94 → 11.50 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | -7.0% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.50 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | -7.0% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.50 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | -7.0% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.50 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.1% | -6.4% | dentro | 12.28 → 11.50 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.0% | -4.2% | dentro | 12.00 → 11.50 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.