LI historial de movimiento esperado Li Auto Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango83%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado83%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.7%
Error medio abs.3.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 11.29 | ±3.9% | 10.86–11.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 11.35 | ±5.3% | 10.74–11.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 11.26 | ±6.3% | 10.55–11.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 11.77 | ±6.5% | 11.00–12.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 11.55 | ±6.0% | 10.86–12.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 10.90 | ±6.1% | 10.23–11.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 10.99 | ±6.4% | 10.29–11.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 10.89 | ±7.3% | 10.10–11.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 10.85 | ±7.3% | 10.05–11.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 10.67 | ±8.2% | 9.79–11.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 11.12 | ±8.9% | 10.13–12.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 11.57 | ±10.2% | 10.39–12.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 11.57 | ±10.2% | 10.39–12.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 12.15 | ±11.2% | 10.79–13.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 12.08 | ±10.9% | 10.77–13.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 11.86 | ±13.5% | 10.25–13.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 11.96 | ±11.6% | 10.56–13.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 11.85 | ±12.7% | 10.35–13.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 11.85 | ±12.7% | 10.35–13.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 11.68 | ±10.6% | 10.45–12.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 11.94 | ±13.7% | 10.31–13.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 12.36 | ±18.4% | 10.09–14.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 12.36 | ±18.4% | 10.09–14.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 12.36 | ±18.4% | 10.09–14.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 12.28 | ±16.2% | 10.29–14.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 11.29 | ±7.1% | 10.48–12.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 11.35 | ±8.5% | 10.38–12.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 11.26 | ±8.0% | 10.36–12.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 11.77 | ±7.3% | 10.90–12.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 11.55 | ±8.4% | 10.59–12.52 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -0.1% | dentro | 11.35 → 11.34 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +0.7% | dentro | 11.26 → 11.34 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -3.7% | dentro | 11.77 → 11.34 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -1.8% | dentro | 11.55 → 11.34 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +4.0% | dentro | 10.90 → 11.34 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +3.2% | dentro | 10.99 → 11.34 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +4.1% | dentro | 10.89 → 11.34 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +4.5% | dentro | 10.85 → 11.34 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +6.3% | dentro | 10.67 → 11.34 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +2.0% | dentro | 11.12 → 11.34 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -2.0% | dentro | 11.57 → 11.34 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -2.0% | dentro | 11.57 → 11.34 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -6.7% | dentro | 12.15 → 11.34 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -6.1% | dentro | 12.08 → 11.34 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -4.4% | dentro | 11.86 → 11.34 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -5.1% | dentro | 11.96 → 11.34 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -4.3% | dentro | 11.85 → 11.34 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -4.3% | dentro | 11.85 → 11.34 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -2.9% | dentro | 11.68 → 11.34 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -5.0% | dentro | 11.94 → 11.34 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -8.3% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.34 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -8.3% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.34 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -8.3% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.34 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -7.7% | dentro | 12.28 → 11.34 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -5.5% | dentro | 12.00 → 11.34 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | -4.6% | dentro | 11.89 → 11.34 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | -4.6% | dentro | 11.89 → 11.34 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | -7.0% | dentro | 12.19 → 11.34 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | -0.1% | dentro | 11.55 → 11.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +5.9% | fuera | 10.90 → 11.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +5.0% | fuera | 10.99 → 11.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +6.0% | fuera | 10.89 → 11.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +6.4% | fuera | 10.85 → 11.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +8.2% | fuera | 10.67 → 11.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +3.8% | dentro | 11.12 → 11.54 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 11.57 → 11.54 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 11.57 → 11.54 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -5.0% | dentro | 12.15 → 11.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -4.5% | dentro | 12.08 → 11.54 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 11.86 → 11.54 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -3.5% | dentro | 11.96 → 11.54 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -2.6% | dentro | 11.85 → 11.54 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -2.6% | dentro | 11.85 → 11.54 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 11.68 → 11.54 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -3.4% | dentro | 11.94 → 11.54 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -6.6% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.54 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -6.6% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.54 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -6.6% | dentro | 12.36 → 11.54 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -6.0% | dentro | 12.28 → 11.54 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -3.8% | dentro | 12.00 → 11.54 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -2.9% | dentro | 11.89 → 11.54 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -2.9% | dentro | 11.89 → 11.54 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -5.3% | dentro | 12.19 → 11.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | +0.2% | dentro | 10.67 → 10.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -3.9% | fuera | 11.12 → 10.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -7.6% | fuera | 11.57 → 10.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -7.6% | fuera | 11.57 → 10.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -12.0% | fuera | 12.15 → 10.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -11.5% | fuera | 12.08 → 10.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -9.9% | fuera | 11.86 → 10.69 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.