LCID 预期波动历史 Lucid Group, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内69%
|实际值| 低于预期值69%
平均预期波动幅度±13.8%
平均|实际|波动幅度11.5%
平均绝对误差5.9pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 3.10 | ±9.3% | 2.81–3.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 3.15 | ±12.9% | 2.74–3.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 3.30 | ±14.7% | 2.81–3.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 3.37 | ±12.0% | 2.96–3.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 3.81 | ±11.8% | 3.36–4.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 3.82 | ±14.9% | 3.25–4.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 3.91 | ±10.7% | 3.49–4.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 4.16 | ±13.1% | 3.62–4.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 4.14 | ±14.3% | 3.55–4.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 4.12 | ±15.5% | 3.48–4.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 4.18 | ±18.7% | 3.40–4.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 4.32 | ±23.5% | 3.30–5.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 4.33 | ±23.4% | 3.31–5.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 4.30 | ±19.5% | 3.46–5.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 4.11 | ±21.7% | 3.22–5.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 4.30 | ±23.0% | 3.31–5.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 4.04 | ±20.5% | 3.21–4.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 4.09 | ±24.7% | 3.08–5.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 4.15 | ±21.7% | 3.25–5.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 4.23 | ±23.3% | 3.25–5.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 4.22 | ±23.6% | 3.23–5.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 4.31 | ±23.1% | 3.31–5.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 4.62 | ±24.0% | 3.51–5.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 4.66 | ±27.6% | 3.37–5.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 4.63 | ±27.8% | 3.34–5.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 4.62 | ±57.1% | 1.98–7.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 3.10 | ±16.3% | 2.60–3.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 3.15 | ±16.0% | 2.64–3.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 3.30 | ±17.3% | 2.73–3.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 3.37 | ±15.6% | 2.85–3.90 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 3.15 → 3.13 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 3.30 → 3.13 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -7.1% | 区间内 | 3.37 → 3.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -17.8% | 区间外 | 3.81 → 3.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -18.1% | 区间外 | 3.82 → 3.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -19.9% | 区间外 | 3.91 → 3.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -24.8% | 区间外 | 4.16 → 3.13 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -24.4% | 区间外 | 4.14 → 3.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | -24.0% | 区间外 | 4.12 → 3.13 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -25.1% | 区间外 | 4.18 → 3.13 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.0% | -27.5% | 区间外 | 4.32 → 3.13 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.9% | -27.7% | 区间外 | 4.33 → 3.13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±23.0% | -27.2% | 区间外 | 4.30 → 3.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.4% | -23.8% | 区间外 | 4.11 → 3.13 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.3% | -27.2% | 区间外 | 4.30 → 3.13 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.6% | -22.5% | 区间外 | 4.04 → 3.13 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.8% | -23.5% | 区间外 | 4.09 → 3.13 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.0% | -24.6% | 区间外 | 4.15 → 3.13 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.4% | -26.0% | 区间外 | 4.23 → 3.13 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.7% | -25.8% | 区间外 | 4.22 → 3.13 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.8% | -27.4% | 区间外 | 4.31 → 3.13 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±24.0% | -32.3% | 区间外 | 4.62 → 3.13 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±24.5% | -32.8% | 区间外 | 4.66 → 3.13 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±24.6% | -32.4% | 区间外 | 4.63 → 3.13 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±25.9% | -32.2% | 区间外 | 4.62 → 3.13 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±25.6% | -33.6% | 区间外 | 4.71 → 3.13 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±27.3% | -31.7% | 区间外 | 4.58 → 3.13 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±24.7% | -36.0% | 区间外 | 4.89 → 3.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 3.81 → 3.79 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 3.82 → 3.79 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 3.91 → 3.79 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -8.9% | 区间外 | 4.16 → 3.79 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -8.5% | 区间外 | 4.14 → 3.79 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -8.0% | 区间外 | 4.12 → 3.79 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -9.3% | 区间内 | 4.18 → 3.79 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.1% | -12.3% | 区间内 | 4.32 → 3.79 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.0% | -12.5% | 区间内 | 4.33 → 3.79 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.2% | -11.9% | 区间内 | 4.30 → 3.79 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.4% | -7.8% | 区间内 | 4.11 → 3.79 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.4% | -11.9% | 区间内 | 4.30 → 3.79 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | -6.2% | 区间内 | 4.04 → 3.79 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -7.4% | 区间内 | 4.09 → 3.79 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.8% | -8.7% | 区间内 | 4.15 → 3.79 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.3% | -10.4% | 区间内 | 4.23 → 3.79 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.4% | -10.2% | 区间内 | 4.22 → 3.79 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±23.9% | -12.1% | 区间内 | 4.31 → 3.79 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.3% | -18.0% | 区间内 | 4.62 → 3.79 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.9% | -18.6% | 区间内 | 4.66 → 3.79 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.0% | -18.1% | 区间内 | 4.63 → 3.79 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.9% | -17.9% | 区间内 | 4.62 → 3.79 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.7% | -19.6% | 区间内 | 4.71 → 3.79 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±22.5% | -17.2% | 区间内 | 4.58 → 3.79 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.8% | -22.5% | 区间外 | 4.89 → 3.79 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 4.12 → 4.13 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 4.18 → 4.13 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.7% | -4.4% | 区间内 | 4.32 → 4.13 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.7% | -4.6% | 区间内 | 4.33 → 4.13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.1% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 4.30 → 4.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.0% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 4.11 → 4.13 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.7% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 4.30 → 4.13 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.