KMX 预期波动历史 CarMax, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项15
收盘价处于区间内47%
|实际值| 低于预期值47%
平均预期波动幅度±5.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度6.0%
平均绝对误差1.2pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 53.43 | ±2.1% | 52.30–54.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 49.26 | ±3.1% | 47.71–50.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 50.20 | ±4.8% | 47.80–52.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 52.70 | ±4.5% | 50.35–55.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 53.50 | ±5.1% | 50.77–56.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 55.29 | ±5.3% | 52.34–58.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 55.20 | ±6.5% | 51.59–58.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 54.92 | ±6.1% | 51.55–58.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 55.89 | ±6.3% | 52.39–59.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 55.99 | ±6.1% | 52.57–59.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 58.09 | ±13.1% | 50.49–65.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 58.09 | ±13.1% | 50.49–65.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 58.42 | ±12.7% | 51.02–65.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 57.21 | ±13.2% | 49.66–64.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 58.25 | ±13.4% | 50.45–66.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 61.32 | ±13.8% | 52.87–69.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 61.32 | ±13.8% | 52.87–69.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 61.32 | ±13.8% | 52.87–69.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 60.52 | ±14.0% | 52.02–69.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 60.29 | ±14.8% | 51.39–69.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 60.57 | ±14.4% | 51.82–69.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 60.59 | ±14.5% | 51.79–69.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 63.29 | ±14.4% | 54.19–72.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 62.64 | ±13.7% | 54.04–71.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 61.00 | ±14.8% | 51.95–70.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 61.00 | ±14.8% | 51.95–70.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 62.04 | ±14.6% | 52.99–71.09 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 62.04 | ±14.6% | 52.99–71.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 53.43 | ±10.7% | 47.73–59.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 49.26 | ±11.1% | 43.81–54.71 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 57.21 → 57.21 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.4% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 58.25 → 57.21 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.7% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 61.32 → 57.21 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.7% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 61.32 → 57.21 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.7% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 61.32 → 57.21 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.8% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 60.52 → 57.21 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.9% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 60.29 → 57.21 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.0% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 60.57 → 57.21 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.1% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 60.59 → 57.21 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.1% | -9.6% | 区间外 | 63.29 → 57.21 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.5% | -8.7% | 区间外 | 62.64 → 57.21 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.0% | -6.2% | 区间内 | 61.00 → 57.21 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.0% | -6.2% | 区间内 | 61.00 → 57.21 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.1% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 62.04 → 57.21 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.1% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 62.04 → 57.21 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.