KHC 预期波动历史 The Kraft Heinz Company
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内44%
|实际值| 低于预期值44%
平均预期波动幅度±4.6%
平均|实际|波动幅度5.6%
平均绝对误差2.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 23.24 | ±2.7% | 22.62–23.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 23.70 | ±3.3% | 22.93–24.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 22.64 | ±3.9% | 21.75–23.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 22.28 | ±4.0% | 21.38–23.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 22.29 | ±4.5% | 21.29–23.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 22.54 | ±4.5% | 21.52–23.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 22.23 | ±4.6% | 21.20–23.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 22.17 | ±4.9% | 21.08–23.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 21.86 | ±4.6% | 20.85–22.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 22.25 | ±4.0% | 21.36–23.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 22.45 | ±5.7% | 21.18–23.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 24.10 | ±6.3% | 22.59–25.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 24.10 | ±6.3% | 22.59–25.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 24.37 | ±6.0% | 22.91–25.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 24.43 | ±7.4% | 22.61–26.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 24.73 | ±6.2% | 23.19–26.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 24.68 | ±7.0% | 22.96–26.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 24.68 | ±7.9% | 22.72–26.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 24.27 | ±8.6% | 22.18–26.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 24.71 | ±7.4% | 22.89–26.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 24.39 | ±6.8% | 22.73–26.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 24.66 | ±10.3% | 22.11–27.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 24.94 | ±7.8% | 22.98–26.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 24.85 | ±8.4% | 22.75–26.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 24.88 | ±8.4% | 22.79–26.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 25.45 | ±12.3% | 22.32–28.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 23.24 | ±3.6% | 22.39–24.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 23.70 | ±4.3% | 22.68–24.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 22.64 | ±5.0% | 21.50–23.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 22.28 | ±4.9% | 21.19–23.37 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 23.70 → 23.68 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +4.6% | 区间外 | 22.64 → 23.68 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 22.28 → 23.68 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 22.29 → 23.68 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +5.1% | 区间外 | 22.54 → 23.68 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +6.5% | 区间外 | 22.23 → 23.68 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +6.8% | 区间外 | 22.17 → 23.68 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +8.3% | 区间外 | 21.86 → 23.68 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +6.4% | 区间外 | 22.25 → 23.68 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +5.5% | 区间外 | 22.45 → 23.68 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 24.10 → 23.68 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 24.10 → 23.68 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 24.37 → 23.68 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 24.43 → 23.68 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 24.73 → 23.68 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 24.68 → 23.68 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 24.68 → 23.68 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 24.27 → 23.68 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 24.71 → 23.68 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 24.39 → 23.68 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 24.66 → 23.68 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 24.94 → 23.68 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 24.85 → 23.68 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 24.88 → 23.68 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -6.9% | 区间内 | 25.45 → 23.68 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -9.8% | 区间外 | 26.26 → 23.68 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -8.6% | 区间外 | 25.90 → 23.68 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -7.6% | 区间内 | 25.63 → 23.68 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 22.29 → 22.27 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 22.54 → 22.27 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 22.23 → 22.27 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 22.17 → 22.27 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 21.86 → 22.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 22.25 → 22.27 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 22.45 → 22.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 24.10 → 22.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 24.10 → 22.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -8.6% | 区间外 | 24.37 → 22.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -8.8% | 区间外 | 24.43 → 22.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -9.9% | 区间外 | 24.73 → 22.27 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -9.8% | 区间外 | 24.68 → 22.27 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -9.8% | 区间外 | 24.68 → 22.27 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 24.27 → 22.27 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -9.9% | 区间外 | 24.71 → 22.27 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -8.7% | 区间外 | 24.39 → 22.27 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -9.7% | 区间外 | 24.66 → 22.27 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -10.7% | 区间外 | 24.94 → 22.27 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -10.4% | 区间内 | 24.85 → 22.27 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -10.5% | 区间内 | 24.88 → 22.27 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -12.5% | 区间外 | 25.45 → 22.27 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -15.2% | 区间外 | 26.26 → 22.27 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -14.0% | 区间外 | 25.90 → 22.27 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -13.1% | 区间外 | 25.63 → 22.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.8% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 22.25 → 22.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.2% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 22.45 → 22.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 24.10 → 22.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 24.10 → 22.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -8.9% | 区间外 | 24.37 → 22.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -9.2% | 区间外 | 24.43 → 22.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -10.3% | 区间外 | 24.73 → 22.19 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.