JNJ 预期波动历史 Johnson & Johnson
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内74%
|实际值| 低于预期值74%
平均预期波动幅度±3.3%
平均|实际|波动幅度2.5%
平均绝对误差1.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 255.56 | ±0.4% | 254.66–256.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 253.90 | ±1.7% | 249.61–258.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 249.03 | ±2.4% | 243.08–254.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 261.40 | ±3.6% | 252.03–270.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 256.30 | ±4.0% | 246.10–266.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 258.66 | ±4.0% | 248.34–268.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 254.90 | ±3.9% | 244.87–264.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 253.20 | ±4.4% | 242.10–264.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 256.13 | ±4.2% | 245.33–266.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 259.31 | ±4.5% | 247.69–270.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 268.94 | ±5.7% | 253.51–284.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 269.40 | ±5.7% | 253.97–284.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 269.83 | ±5.6% | 254.66–285.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 269.37 | ±5.7% | 253.90–284.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 270.80 | ±5.7% | 255.43–286.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 266.73 | ±6.1% | 250.53–282.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 266.99 | ±6.2% | 250.44–283.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 266.38 | ±6.1% | 250.10–282.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 265.88 | ±6.1% | 249.63–282.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 266.33 | ±6.6% | 248.78–283.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 268.44 | ±6.5% | 250.89–285.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 270.45 | ±6.7% | 252.40–288.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 276.53 | ±6.8% | 257.71–295.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 275.23 | ±6.8% | 256.40–294.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 278.00 | ±6.8% | 259.23–296.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 275.65 | ±7.4% | 255.28–296.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 271.00 | ±7.1% | 251.80–290.20 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 266.00 | ±7.3% | 246.70–285.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 255.56 | ±2.5% | 249.06–262.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 253.90 | ±3.1% | 246.07–261.73 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 261.40 → 261.44 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +2.0% | 区间外 | 256.30 → 261.44 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 258.66 → 261.44 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +2.6% | 区间外 | 254.90 → 261.44 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +3.3% | 区间外 | 253.20 → 261.44 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 256.13 → 261.44 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 259.31 → 261.44 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 268.94 → 261.44 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 269.40 → 261.44 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 269.83 → 261.44 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 269.37 → 261.44 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 270.80 → 261.44 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 266.73 → 261.44 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 266.99 → 261.44 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 266.38 → 261.44 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 265.88 → 261.44 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 266.33 → 261.44 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 268.44 → 261.44 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 270.45 → 261.44 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 276.53 → 261.44 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 275.23 → 261.44 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -6.0% | 区间外 | 278.00 → 261.44 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 275.65 → 261.44 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 271.00 → 261.44 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 266.00 → 261.44 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 256.13 → 256.03 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -1.3% | 区间外 | 259.31 → 256.03 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -4.8% | 区间外 | 268.94 → 256.03 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | -5.0% | 区间外 | 269.40 → 256.03 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 269.83 → 256.03 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -5.0% | 区间外 | 269.37 → 256.03 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 270.80 → 256.03 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -4.0% | 区间外 | 266.73 → 256.03 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 266.99 → 256.03 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 266.38 → 256.03 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 265.88 → 256.03 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 266.33 → 256.03 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -4.6% | 区间外 | 268.44 → 256.03 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -5.3% | 区间外 | 270.45 → 256.03 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -7.4% | 区间外 | 276.53 → 256.03 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -7.0% | 区间外 | 275.23 → 256.03 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 278.00 → 256.03 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 275.65 → 256.03 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 271.00 → 256.03 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 266.00 → 256.03 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.9% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 268.94 → 271.22 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.9% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 269.40 → 271.22 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.1% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 269.83 → 271.22 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 269.37 → 271.22 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 270.80 → 271.22 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.0% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 266.73 → 271.22 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 266.99 → 271.22 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 266.38 → 271.22 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 265.88 → 271.22 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 266.33 → 271.22 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.9% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 268.44 → 271.22 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 270.45 → 271.22 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 276.53 → 271.22 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 275.23 → 271.22 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 278.00 → 271.22 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.