JNJ histórico de movimento esperado Johnson & Johnson
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo77%
|Real| abaixo do esperado77%
Movimento esperado médio±3.8%
Movimento |real| médio2.8%
Erro médio absoluto1.5pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 252.85 | ±2.2% | 247.25–258.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 255.56 | ±2.5% | 249.06–262.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 253.90 | ±3.1% | 246.07–261.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 249.03 | ±3.7% | 239.85–258.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 261.40 | ±4.4% | 249.97–272.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 256.30 | ±4.6% | 244.60–268.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 258.66 | ±4.6% | 246.69–270.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 254.90 | ±4.8% | 242.72–267.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 253.20 | ±5.1% | 240.40–266.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 256.13 | ±5.0% | 243.25–269.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 259.31 | ±5.1% | 245.96–272.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 268.94 | ±6.4% | 251.79–286.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 269.40 | ±6.4% | 252.25–286.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 269.83 | ±6.2% | 253.03–286.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 269.37 | ±6.2% | 252.62–286.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 270.80 | ±6.2% | 253.88–287.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 266.73 | ±6.7% | 248.73–284.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 266.99 | ±6.7% | 249.12–284.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 266.38 | ±6.7% | 248.50–284.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 265.88 | ±6.9% | 247.53–284.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 266.33 | ±7.1% | 247.31–285.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 268.44 | ±7.1% | 249.29–287.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 270.45 | ±7.2% | 251.00–289.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 276.53 | ±7.1% | 256.88–296.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 275.23 | ±7.1% | 255.58–294.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 278.00 | ±7.4% | 257.32–298.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 252.85 | ±3.6% | 243.85–261.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 255.56 | ±4.0% | 245.38–265.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 253.90 | ±4.1% | 243.60–264.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 249.03 | ±4.5% | 237.85–260.20 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 255.56 → 255.56 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +0.7% | dentro | 253.90 → 255.56 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +2.6% | fora | 249.03 → 255.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -2.2% | dentro | 261.40 → 255.56 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -0.3% | dentro | 256.30 → 255.56 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -1.2% | dentro | 258.66 → 255.56 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +0.3% | dentro | 254.90 → 255.56 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +0.9% | dentro | 253.20 → 255.56 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 256.13 → 255.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -1.4% | dentro | 259.31 → 255.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -5.0% | dentro | 268.94 → 255.56 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -5.1% | dentro | 269.40 → 255.56 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -5.3% | dentro | 269.83 → 255.56 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -5.1% | dentro | 269.37 → 255.56 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -5.6% | dentro | 270.80 → 255.56 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -4.2% | dentro | 266.73 → 255.56 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -4.3% | dentro | 266.99 → 255.56 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -4.1% | dentro | 266.38 → 255.56 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -3.9% | dentro | 265.88 → 255.56 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -4.0% | dentro | 266.33 → 255.56 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -4.8% | dentro | 268.44 → 255.56 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -5.5% | dentro | 270.45 → 255.56 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -7.6% | fora | 276.53 → 255.56 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -7.1% | fora | 275.23 → 255.56 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -8.1% | fora | 278.00 → 255.56 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -7.3% | dentro | 275.65 → 255.56 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -5.7% | dentro | 271.00 → 255.56 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -3.9% | dentro | 266.00 → 255.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 261.40 → 261.44 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +2.0% | fora | 256.30 → 261.44 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +1.1% | dentro | 258.66 → 261.44 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +2.6% | fora | 254.90 → 261.44 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +3.3% | fora | 253.20 → 261.44 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.1% | dentro | 256.13 → 261.44 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +0.8% | dentro | 259.31 → 261.44 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -2.8% | dentro | 268.94 → 261.44 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -3.0% | dentro | 269.40 → 261.44 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -3.1% | dentro | 269.83 → 261.44 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -2.9% | dentro | 269.37 → 261.44 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -3.5% | dentro | 270.80 → 261.44 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -2.0% | dentro | 266.73 → 261.44 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -2.1% | dentro | 266.99 → 261.44 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -1.9% | dentro | 266.38 → 261.44 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -1.7% | dentro | 265.88 → 261.44 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -1.8% | dentro | 266.33 → 261.44 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -2.6% | dentro | 268.44 → 261.44 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -3.3% | dentro | 270.45 → 261.44 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -5.5% | fora | 276.53 → 261.44 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -5.0% | dentro | 275.23 → 261.44 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -6.0% | fora | 278.00 → 261.44 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -5.2% | dentro | 275.65 → 261.44 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -3.5% | dentro | 271.00 → 261.44 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -1.7% | dentro | 266.00 → 261.44 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 256.13 → 256.03 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -1.3% | fora | 259.31 → 256.03 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -4.8% | fora | 268.94 → 256.03 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | -5.0% | fora | 269.40 → 256.03 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | -5.1% | fora | 269.83 → 256.03 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -5.0% | fora | 269.37 → 256.03 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -5.5% | fora | 270.80 → 256.03 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.