JD 预期波动历史 JD.com, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内77%
|实际值| 低于预期值77%
平均预期波动幅度±4.7%
平均|实际|波动幅度2.6%
平均绝对误差2.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 26.78 | ±2.5% | 26.10–27.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 27.01 | ±2.6% | 26.32–27.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 26.68 | ±3.3% | 25.80–27.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 26.78 | ±2.9% | 26.01–27.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 27.17 | ±4.6% | 25.91–28.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 26.85 | ±5.4% | 25.40–28.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 27.03 | ±4.8% | 25.73–28.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 26.50 | ±4.9% | 25.20–27.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 26.40 | ±5.0% | 25.09–27.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 25.79 | ±5.3% | 24.43–27.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 26.34 | ±5.7% | 24.84–27.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 27.35 | ±7.7% | 25.25–29.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 27.35 | ±7.7% | 25.25–29.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 27.29 | ±6.7% | 25.46–29.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 26.93 | ±7.8% | 24.84–29.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 26.68 | ±6.9% | 24.84–28.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 26.92 | ±8.1% | 24.74–29.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 27.04 | ±7.8% | 24.93–29.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 27.28 | ±8.1% | 25.06–29.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 27.04 | ±8.6% | 24.71–29.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 27.02 | ±8.4% | 24.75–29.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 27.03 | ±10.3% | 24.25–29.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 27.67 | ±9.3% | 25.11–30.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 28.27 | ±9.2% | 25.66–30.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 28.10 | ±9.1% | 25.55–30.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 27.67 | ±9.2% | 25.11–30.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 26.78 | ±4.3% | 25.61–27.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 27.01 | ±4.4% | 25.82–28.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 26.68 | ±4.6% | 25.46–27.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 26.78 | ±5.2% | 25.40–28.16 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 27.01 → 27.01 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 26.68 → 27.01 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 26.78 → 27.01 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 27.17 → 27.01 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 26.85 → 27.01 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 27.03 → 27.01 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 26.50 → 27.01 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 26.40 → 27.01 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +4.7% | 区间外 | 25.79 → 27.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 26.34 → 27.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 27.35 → 27.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 27.35 → 27.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 27.29 → 27.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 26.93 → 27.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 26.68 → 27.01 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 26.92 → 27.01 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 27.04 → 27.01 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 27.28 → 27.01 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 27.04 → 27.01 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 27.02 → 27.01 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 27.03 → 27.01 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 27.67 → 27.01 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 28.27 → 27.01 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 28.10 → 27.01 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 27.67 → 27.01 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 27.83 → 27.01 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 27.90 → 27.01 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -4.6% | 区间内 | 28.30 → 27.01 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 27.17 → 27.09 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 26.85 → 27.09 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 27.03 → 27.09 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +2.2% | 区间外 | 26.50 → 27.09 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +2.6% | 区间外 | 26.40 → 27.09 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +5.0% | 区间外 | 25.79 → 27.09 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.8% | 区间外 | 26.34 → 27.09 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 27.35 → 27.09 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 27.35 → 27.09 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 27.29 → 27.09 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 26.93 → 27.09 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 26.68 → 27.09 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 26.92 → 27.09 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 27.04 → 27.09 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 27.28 → 27.09 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 27.04 → 27.09 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 27.02 → 27.09 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 27.03 → 27.09 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 27.67 → 27.09 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 28.27 → 27.09 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 28.10 → 27.09 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 27.67 → 27.09 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 27.83 → 27.09 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 27.90 → 27.09 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 28.30 → 27.09 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 25.79 → 25.78 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -2.1% | 区间外 | 26.34 → 25.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 27.35 → 25.78 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 27.35 → 25.78 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 27.29 → 25.78 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -4.3% | 区间外 | 26.93 → 25.78 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 26.68 → 25.78 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.