IWM historial de movimiento esperado iShares Russell 2000 ETF
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango51%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado50%
Movimiento esperado promedio±2.4%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.6%
Error medio abs.1.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 271.35 | ±0.1% | 271.12–271.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 270.36 | ±1.1% | 267.44–273.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 271.10 | ±1.5% | 266.96–275.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 276.80 | ±1.6% | 272.24–281.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 278.80 | ±1.9% | 273.50–284.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 277.70 | ±2.3% | 271.39–284.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 277.72 | ±2.4% | 271.10–284.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 281.26 | ±2.5% | 274.26–288.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 283.23 | ±2.6% | 275.92–290.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 20 | 1 | 271.35 | ±0.8% | 269.20–273.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 20 | 4 | 270.36 | ±1.4% | 266.60–274.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 20 | 6 | 271.10 | ±1.7% | 266.42–275.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 20 | 7 | 276.80 | ±1.8% | 271.85–281.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 20 | 11 | 278.80 | ±2.0% | 273.12–284.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 20 | 12 | 277.70 | ±2.4% | 271.03–284.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 20 | 13 | 277.72 | ±2.5% | 270.71–284.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 20 | 14 | 281.26 | ±2.6% | 273.94–288.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 271.35 | ±1.1% | 268.28–274.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 270.36 | ±1.6% | 265.92–274.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 271.10 | ±1.9% | 265.92–276.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 276.80 | ±1.9% | 271.45–282.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 278.80 | ±2.2% | 272.77–284.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 277.70 | ±2.5% | 270.67–284.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 277.72 | ±2.7% | 270.35–285.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 22 | 3 | 271.35 | ±1.4% | 267.53–275.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 22 | 6 | 270.36 | ±1.9% | 265.29–275.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 22 | 8 | 271.10 | ±2.1% | 265.42–276.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 22 | 9 | 276.80 | ±2.1% | 271.07–282.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 22 | 13 | 278.80 | ±2.3% | 272.40–285.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 22 | 14 | 277.70 | ±2.7% | 270.33–285.06 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 270.36 → 270.44 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | -0.2% | dentro | 271.10 → 270.44 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.5% | -2.3% | fuera | 276.80 → 270.44 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | -3.0% | fuera | 278.80 → 270.44 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | -2.6% | fuera | 277.70 → 270.44 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -2.6% | fuera | 277.72 → 270.44 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -3.8% | fuera | 281.26 → 270.44 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -4.5% | fuera | 283.23 → 270.44 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -3.9% | fuera | 281.28 → 270.44 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -3.2% | fuera | 279.37 → 270.44 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -5.8% | fuera | 287.21 → 270.44 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -5.9% | fuera | 287.39 → 270.44 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -5.3% | fuera | 285.72 → 270.44 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -4.8% | fuera | 284.10 → 270.44 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -5.2% | fuera | 285.38 → 270.44 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -4.7% | fuera | 283.89 → 270.44 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -5.2% | fuera | 285.25 → 270.44 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -6.1% | fuera | 288.09 → 270.44 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -6.3% | fuera | 288.73 → 270.44 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -6.0% | fuera | 287.60 → 270.44 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -7.0% | fuera | 290.71 → 270.44 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -8.2% | fuera | 294.52 → 270.44 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -8.6% | fuera | 296.01 → 270.44 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -8.5% | fuera | 295.59 → 270.44 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -8.3% | fuera | 295.04 → 270.44 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -8.0% | fuera | 293.82 → 270.44 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -7.0% | fuera | 290.67 → 270.44 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -8.0% | fuera | 293.93 → 270.44 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±0.9% | +1.5% | fuera | 271.10 → 275.08 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.2% | -0.6% | dentro | 276.80 → 275.08 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.5% | -1.3% | dentro | 278.80 → 275.08 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.9% | -0.9% | dentro | 277.70 → 275.08 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.0% | -1.0% | dentro | 277.72 → 275.08 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.1% | -2.2% | fuera | 281.26 → 275.08 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.3% | -2.9% | fuera | 283.23 → 275.08 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.5% | -2.2% | dentro | 281.28 → 275.08 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.0% | -1.5% | dentro | 279.37 → 275.08 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.1% | +0.1% | fuera | 271.10 → 271.37 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.0% | -2.0% | fuera | 276.80 → 271.37 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.3% | -2.7% | fuera | 278.80 → 271.37 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.7% | -2.3% | fuera | 277.70 → 271.37 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.8% | -2.3% | fuera | 277.72 → 271.37 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.0% | -3.5% | fuera | 281.26 → 271.37 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.1% | -4.2% | fuera | 283.23 → 271.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | -3.5% | fuera | 281.28 → 271.37 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.9% | -2.9% | dentro | 279.37 → 271.37 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 276.80 → 276.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 278.80 → 276.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.4% | -0.4% | dentro | 277.70 → 276.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 277.72 → 276.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.7% | -1.6% | dentro | 281.26 → 276.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.8% | -2.3% | fuera | 283.23 → 276.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.1% | -1.6% | dentro | 281.28 → 276.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 279.37 → 276.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±0.7% | -0.3% | dentro | 278.80 → 277.90 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 277.70 → 277.90 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 277.72 → 277.90 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.5% | -1.2% | dentro | 281.26 → 277.90 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.6% | -1.9% | fuera | 283.23 → 277.90 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.0% | -1.2% | dentro | 281.28 → 277.90 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.