IONQ 预期波动历史 IonQ, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内64%
|实际值| 低于预期值64%
平均预期波动幅度±11.7%
平均|实际|波动幅度10.7%
平均绝对误差6.2pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 30.98 | ±6.8% | 28.89–33.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 31.57 | ±8.3% | 28.95–34.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 31.65 | ±8.3% | 29.01–34.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 34.94 | ±8.1% | 32.12–37.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 39.79 | ±9.3% | 36.09–43.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 39.68 | ±9.8% | 35.80–43.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 41.40 | ±10.4% | 37.11–45.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 43.44 | ±11.1% | 38.64–48.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 42.91 | ±11.5% | 37.95–47.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 44.02 | ±12.8% | 38.40–49.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 44.05 | ±13.7% | 38.01–50.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 45.70 | ±18.0% | 37.45–53.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 44.20 | ±16.1% | 37.07–51.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 40.43 | ±16.1% | 33.91–46.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 39.05 | ±16.8% | 32.49–45.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 40.15 | ±17.2% | 33.22–47.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 37.00 | ±17.8% | 30.40–43.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 37.01 | ±18.7% | 30.09–43.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 37.55 | ±18.3% | 30.70–44.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 36.88 | ±18.8% | 29.96–43.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 36.96 | ±20.6% | 29.36–44.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 38.25 | ±21.6% | 30.00–46.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 40.32 | ±20.2% | 32.17–48.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 39.73 | ±22.4% | 30.83–48.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 39.70 | ±22.4% | 30.80–48.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 39.15 | ±20.9% | 30.95–47.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 30.98 | ±10.2% | 27.80–34.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 31.57 | ±11.5% | 27.95–35.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 31.65 | ±11.8% | 27.92–35.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 34.94 | ±10.7% | 31.20–38.68 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 31.57 → 31.28 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 31.65 → 31.28 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -10.5% | 区间外 | 34.94 → 31.28 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -21.4% | 区间外 | 39.79 → 31.28 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -21.2% | 区间外 | 39.68 → 31.28 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -24.4% | 区间外 | 41.40 → 31.28 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -28.0% | 区间外 | 43.44 → 31.28 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -27.1% | 区间外 | 42.91 → 31.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -28.9% | 区间外 | 44.02 → 31.28 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -29.0% | 区间外 | 44.05 → 31.28 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | -31.6% | 区间外 | 45.70 → 31.28 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -29.2% | 区间外 | 44.20 → 31.28 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | -22.6% | 区间外 | 40.43 → 31.28 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -19.9% | 区间外 | 39.05 → 31.28 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | -22.1% | 区间外 | 40.15 → 31.28 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | -15.5% | 区间内 | 37.00 → 31.28 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.5% | -15.5% | 区间内 | 37.01 → 31.28 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.9% | -16.7% | 区间内 | 37.55 → 31.28 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | -15.2% | 区间内 | 36.88 → 31.28 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.0% | -15.4% | 区间内 | 36.96 → 31.28 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.8% | -18.2% | 区间内 | 38.25 → 31.28 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.2% | -22.4% | 区间外 | 40.32 → 31.28 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.9% | -21.3% | 区间外 | 39.73 → 31.28 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.9% | -21.2% | 区间外 | 39.70 → 31.28 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.2% | -20.1% | 区间内 | 39.15 → 31.28 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.9% | -17.0% | 区间内 | 37.69 → 31.28 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.4% | -17.5% | 区间内 | 37.91 → 31.28 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.2% | -20.6% | 区间内 | 39.40 → 31.28 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 39.79 → 39.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 39.68 → 39.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 41.40 → 39.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 43.44 → 39.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -7.0% | 区间外 | 42.91 → 39.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -9.4% | 区间外 | 44.02 → 39.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -9.4% | 区间外 | 44.05 → 39.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.7% | -12.7% | 区间内 | 45.70 → 39.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -9.8% | 区间内 | 44.20 → 39.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 40.43 → 39.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 39.05 → 39.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.1% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 40.15 → 39.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.5% | +7.8% | 区间内 | 37.00 → 39.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | +7.8% | 区间内 | 37.01 → 39.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | +6.2% | 区间内 | 37.55 → 39.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.4% | +8.1% | 区间内 | 36.88 → 39.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | +7.9% | 区间内 | 36.96 → 39.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.7% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 38.25 → 39.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.9% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 40.32 → 39.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.3% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 39.73 → 39.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.3% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 39.70 → 39.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.9% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 39.15 → 39.89 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.2% | +5.8% | 区间内 | 37.69 → 39.89 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.1% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 37.91 → 39.89 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.5% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 39.40 → 39.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 44.02 → 43.77 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 44.05 → 43.77 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.3% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 45.70 → 43.77 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.5% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 44.20 → 43.77 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.7% | +8.3% | 区间内 | 40.43 → 43.77 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.9% | +12.1% | 区间外 | 39.05 → 43.77 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | +9.0% | 区间内 | 40.15 → 43.77 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.