INTC historial de movimiento esperado Intel Corp.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango42%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado42%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio11.6%
Error medio abs.6.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 92.32 | ±108.3% | -7.71–192.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 89.75 | ±112.7% | -11.44–190.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 97.58 | ±95.0% | 4.87–190.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 103.47 | ±85.5% | 14.95–191.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 104.48 | ±81.9% | 18.90–190.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 107.06 | ±78.6% | 22.91–191.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 113.23 | ±68.9% | 35.22–191.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 112.92 | ±69.2% | 34.74–191.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 116.41 | ±63.7% | 42.30–190.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 19 | 17 | 119.34 | ±59.4% | 48.46–190.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 19 | 18 | 119.75 | ±59.3% | 48.71–190.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 92.32 | ±5.6% | 87.11–97.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 89.75 | ±7.0% | 83.47–96.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 97.58 | ±7.7% | 90.11–105.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 103.47 | ±7.5% | 95.72–111.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 104.48 | ±8.3% | 95.83–113.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 107.06 | ±9.2% | 97.21–116.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 113.23 | ±9.6% | 102.40–124.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 112.92 | ±11.4% | 100.02–125.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 116.41 | ±11.7% | 102.83–129.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 119.34 | ±13.0% | 103.81–134.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 119.75 | ±14.0% | 103.00–136.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 124.24 | ±17.4% | 102.64–145.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 123.50 | ±17.5% | 101.90–145.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 121.98 | ±17.7% | 100.36–143.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 108.95 | ±17.0% | 90.45–127.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 109.75 | ±17.6% | 90.45–129.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 101.64 | ±17.3% | 84.04–119.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 97.04 | ±16.8% | 80.72–113.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 97.57 | ±17.3% | 80.72–114.42 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.1% | dentro | 89.75 → 89.85 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -7.9% | fuera | 97.58 → 89.85 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -13.2% | fuera | 103.47 → 89.85 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -14.0% | fuera | 104.48 → 89.85 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -16.1% | fuera | 107.06 → 89.85 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -20.6% | fuera | 113.23 → 89.85 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -20.4% | fuera | 112.92 → 89.85 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -22.8% | fuera | 116.41 → 89.85 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -24.7% | fuera | 119.34 → 89.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -25.0% | fuera | 119.75 → 89.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -27.7% | fuera | 124.24 → 89.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -27.2% | fuera | 123.50 → 89.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.3% | -26.3% | fuera | 121.98 → 89.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -17.5% | fuera | 108.95 → 89.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | -18.1% | fuera | 109.75 → 89.85 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.1% | -11.6% | dentro | 101.64 → 89.85 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -7.4% | dentro | 97.04 → 89.85 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.3% | -7.9% | dentro | 97.57 → 89.85 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -12.8% | dentro | 102.99 → 89.85 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | -10.5% | dentro | 100.34 → 89.85 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.4% | -15.1% | dentro | 105.85 → 89.85 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | -13.8% | dentro | 104.29 → 89.85 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | -6.3% | dentro | 95.89 → 89.85 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.4% | -6.2% | dentro | 95.84 → 89.85 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | -1.8% | dentro | 91.49 → 89.85 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | -0.4% | dentro | 90.22 → 89.85 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.9% | +1.1% | dentro | 88.90 → 89.85 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.0% | +0.3% | dentro | 89.58 → 89.85 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.6% | +0.6% | dentro | 97.58 → 98.12 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.9% | -5.2% | fuera | 103.47 → 98.12 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.8% | -6.1% | fuera | 104.48 → 98.12 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.8% | -8.3% | fuera | 107.06 → 98.12 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±6.1% | -13.3% | fuera | 113.23 → 98.12 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±6.6% | -13.1% | fuera | 112.92 → 98.12 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±7.0% | -15.7% | fuera | 116.41 → 98.12 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±8.0% | -17.8% | fuera | 119.34 → 98.12 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±9.0% | -18.1% | fuera | 119.75 → 98.12 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.7% | -3.0% | fuera | 104.48 → 101.35 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.0% | -5.3% | fuera | 107.06 → 101.35 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.6% | -10.5% | fuera | 113.23 → 101.35 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.2% | -10.2% | fuera | 112.92 → 101.35 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.6% | -12.9% | fuera | 116.41 → 101.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±6.9% | -15.1% | fuera | 119.34 → 101.35 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±7.9% | -15.4% | fuera | 119.75 → 101.35 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.2% | dentro | 104.48 → 104.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -2.2% | dentro | 107.06 → 104.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -7.5% | fuera | 113.23 → 104.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -7.3% | fuera | 112.92 → 104.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -10.1% | fuera | 116.41 → 104.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -12.3% | fuera | 119.34 → 104.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -12.6% | fuera | 119.75 → 104.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -15.7% | fuera | 124.24 → 104.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -15.2% | fuera | 123.50 → 104.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -14.2% | fuera | 121.98 → 104.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | -3.9% | dentro | 108.95 → 104.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -4.6% | dentro | 109.75 → 104.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +3.0% | dentro | 101.64 → 104.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +7.9% | dentro | 97.04 → 104.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +7.3% | dentro | 97.57 → 104.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +1.7% | dentro | 102.99 → 104.70 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.