INTC expected-move history Intel Corp.

Every trading day after the close we record what the options market was pricing — per expiration, before the outcome was known. When an expiration passes, the outcome is written next to the original estimate. Estimates are never revised after the fact. How to read these statistics · recording since Aug 31, 2026

Comparisons resolved200

Close inside range42%

|Actual| under expected42%

Avg expected move±8.3%

Avg |actual| move11.6%

Mean abs. error6.7pt

Implied vs realized, by expiration

For each expiration: the amber outline is the expected move recorded closest to expiry; the solid bar is what the stock actually did. Signed values are printed beneath the bars.

expected (recorded)actual

Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)

Snapshot	Expires	DTE	Spot then	Expected move	Range	Method
Oct 19	Oct 19	0	92.32	±108.3%	-7.71–192.34	em-1.0
Oct 16	Oct 19	3	89.75	±112.7%	-11.44–190.94	em-1.0
Oct 14	Oct 19	5	97.58	±95.0%	4.87–190.29	em-1.0
Oct 13	Oct 19	6	103.47	±85.5%	14.95–191.99	em-1.0
Oct 09	Oct 19	10	104.48	±81.9%	18.90–190.06	em-1.0
Oct 08	Oct 19	11	107.06	±78.6%	22.91–191.22	em-1.0
Oct 07	Oct 19	12	113.23	±68.9%	35.22–191.24	em-1.0
Oct 06	Oct 19	13	112.92	±69.2%	34.74–191.09	em-1.0
Oct 05	Oct 19	14	116.41	±63.7%	42.30–190.51	em-1.0
Oct 02	Oct 19	17	119.34	±59.4%	48.46–190.22	em-1.0
Oct 01	Oct 19	18	119.75	±59.3%	48.71–190.80	em-1.0
Oct 19	Oct 23	4	92.32	±5.6%	87.11–97.53	em-1.0
Oct 16	Oct 23	7	89.75	±7.0%	83.47–96.03	em-1.0
Oct 14	Oct 23	9	97.58	±7.7%	90.11–105.06	em-1.0
Oct 13	Oct 23	10	103.47	±7.5%	95.72–111.22	em-1.0
Oct 09	Oct 23	14	104.48	±8.3%	95.83–113.13	em-1.0
Oct 08	Oct 23	15	107.06	±9.2%	97.21–116.91	em-1.0
Oct 07	Oct 23	16	113.23	±9.6%	102.40–124.05	em-1.0
Oct 06	Oct 23	17	112.92	±11.4%	100.02–125.82	em-1.0
Oct 05	Oct 23	18	116.41	±11.7%	102.83–129.98	em-1.0
Oct 02	Oct 23	21	119.34	±13.0%	103.81–134.86	em-1.0
Oct 01	Oct 23	22	119.75	±14.0%	103.00–136.50	em-1.0
Sep 23	Oct 23	30	124.24	±17.4%	102.64–145.84	em-1.0
Sep 22	Oct 23	31	123.50	±17.5%	101.90–145.10	em-1.0
Sep 21	Oct 23	32	121.98	±17.7%	100.36–143.60	em-1.0
Sep 18	Oct 23	35	108.95	±17.0%	90.45–127.45	em-1.0
Sep 17	Oct 23	36	109.75	±17.6%	90.45–129.05	em-1.0
Sep 16	Oct 23	37	101.64	±17.3%	84.04–119.24	em-1.0
Sep 15	Oct 23	38	97.04	±16.8%	80.72–113.37	em-1.0
Sep 14	Oct 23	39	97.57	±17.3%	80.72–114.42	em-1.0

Resolved snapshots

Snapshot	Expired	Expected	Actual	Inside range?	Spot → close
Oct 16, 2026	Oct 16	±0.4%	+0.1%	inside	89.75 → 89.85
Oct 14, 2026	Oct 16	±4.5%	-7.9%	outside	97.58 → 89.85
Oct 13, 2026	Oct 16	±4.7%	-13.2%	outside	103.47 → 89.85
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 16	±5.9%	-14.0%	outside	104.48 → 89.85
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 16	±7.0%	-16.1%	outside	107.06 → 89.85
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 16	±7.3%	-20.6%	outside	113.23 → 89.85
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 16	±7.6%	-20.4%	outside	112.92 → 89.85
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 16	±7.9%	-22.8%	outside	116.41 → 89.85
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 16	±9.1%	-24.7%	outside	119.34 → 89.85
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 16	±10.0%	-25.0%	outside	119.75 → 89.85
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 16	±13.9%	-27.7%	outside	124.24 → 89.85
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 16	±13.9%	-27.2%	outside	123.50 → 89.85
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 16	±14.3%	-26.3%	outside	121.98 → 89.85
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 16	±13.7%	-17.5%	outside	108.95 → 89.85
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 16	±14.4%	-18.1%	outside	109.75 → 89.85
Sep 16, 2026	Oct 16	±14.1%	-11.6%	inside	101.64 → 89.85
Sep 15, 2026	Oct 16	±13.9%	-7.4%	inside	97.04 → 89.85
Sep 14, 2026	Oct 16	±14.3%	-7.9%	inside	97.57 → 89.85
Sep 11, 2026	Oct 16	±14.8%	-12.8%	inside	102.99 → 89.85
Sep 10, 2026	Oct 16	±15.4%	-10.5%	inside	100.34 → 89.85
Sep 09, 2026	Oct 16	±16.4%	-15.1%	inside	105.85 → 89.85
Sep 08, 2026	Oct 16	±17.0%	-13.8%	inside	104.29 → 89.85
Sep 07, 2026	Oct 16	±16.3%	-6.3%	inside	95.89 → 89.85
Sep 04, 2026	Oct 16	±16.4%	-6.2%	inside	95.84 → 89.85
Sep 03, 2026	Oct 16	±15.8%	-1.8%	inside	91.49 → 89.85
Sep 02, 2026	Oct 16	±15.4%	-0.4%	inside	90.22 → 89.85
Sep 01, 2026	Oct 16	±15.9%	+1.1%	inside	88.90 → 89.85
Aug 31, 2026	Oct 16	±16.0%	+0.3%	inside	89.58 → 89.85
Oct 14, 2026	Oct 14	±0.6%	+0.6%	inside	97.58 → 98.12
Oct 13, 2026	Oct 14	±2.9%	-5.2%	outside	103.47 → 98.12
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 14	±4.8%	-6.1%	outside	104.48 → 98.12
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 14	±5.8%	-8.3%	outside	107.06 → 98.12
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 14	±6.1%	-13.3%	outside	113.23 → 98.12
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 14	±6.6%	-13.1%	outside	112.92 → 98.12
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 14	±7.0%	-15.7%	outside	116.41 → 98.12
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 14	±8.0%	-17.8%	outside	119.34 → 98.12
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 14	±9.0%	-18.1%	outside	119.75 → 98.12
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 12	±2.7%	-3.0%	outside	104.48 → 101.35
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 12	±4.0%	-5.3%	outside	107.06 → 101.35
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 12	±4.6%	-10.5%	outside	113.23 → 101.35
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 12	±5.2%	-10.2%	outside	112.92 → 101.35
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 12	±5.6%	-12.9%	outside	116.41 → 101.35
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 12	±6.9%	-15.1%	outside	119.34 → 101.35
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 12	±7.9%	-15.4%	outside	119.75 → 101.35
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 09	±0.6%	+0.2%	inside	104.48 → 104.70
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 09	±2.8%	-2.2%	inside	107.06 → 104.70
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 09	±3.7%	-7.5%	outside	113.23 → 104.70
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 09	±4.4%	-7.3%	outside	112.92 → 104.70
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 09	±5.0%	-10.1%	outside	116.41 → 104.70
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 09	±6.2%	-12.3%	outside	119.34 → 104.70
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 09	±7.2%	-12.6%	outside	119.75 → 104.70
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 09	±11.7%	-15.7%	outside	124.24 → 104.70
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 09	±11.8%	-15.2%	outside	123.50 → 104.70
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 09	±12.2%	-14.2%	outside	121.98 → 104.70
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 09	±12.0%	-3.9%	inside	108.95 → 104.70
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 09	±12.7%	-4.6%	inside	109.75 → 104.70
Sep 16, 2026	Oct 09	±12.7%	+3.0%	inside	101.64 → 104.70
Sep 15, 2026	Oct 09	±12.5%	+7.9%	inside	97.04 → 104.70
Sep 14, 2026	Oct 09	±12.7%	+7.3%	inside	97.57 → 104.70
Sep 11, 2026	Oct 09	±12.9%	+1.7%	inside	102.99 → 104.70

Outcomes compare the recorded range with the closing price on expiration day. Method version shown per row where it differs; current: em-1.0.

INTC expected-move history Intel Corp.

Implied vs realized, by expiration

Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)

Resolved snapshots

Consumer Cyclical

ETF

Technology

Financial Services

Industrials

Consumer Defensive