IEF historial de movimiento esperado iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango29%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado29%
Movimiento esperado promedio±1.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio1.5%
Error medio abs.0.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 90.17 | ±0.2% | 89.95–90.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 90.52 | ±0.6% | 89.98–91.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 89.67 | ±0.7% | 89.06–90.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 89.56 | ±0.8% | 88.84–90.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 89.38 | ±0.9% | 88.54–90.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 89.45 | ±1.1% | 88.46–90.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 88.99 | ±1.1% | 88.05–89.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 89.12 | ±1.1% | 88.15–90.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 88.91 | ±1.2% | 87.83–90.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 90.17 | ±0.5% | 89.74–90.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 90.52 | ±0.8% | 89.78–91.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 89.67 | ±0.8% | 88.95–90.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 89.56 | ±0.9% | 88.74–90.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 89.38 | ±1.0% | 88.44–90.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 89.45 | ±1.2% | 88.41–90.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 88.99 | ±1.2% | 87.93–90.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 89.12 | ±1.2% | 88.06–90.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 90.17 | ±0.7% | 89.58–90.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 90.52 | ±0.8% | 89.81–91.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 89.67 | ±0.9% | 88.84–90.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 89.56 | ±1.0% | 88.70–90.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 89.38 | ±1.1% | 88.44–90.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 89.45 | ±1.2% | 88.42–90.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 88.99 | ±1.3% | 87.83–90.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 89.12 | ±1.3% | 87.95–90.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 88.91 | ±1.4% | 87.63–90.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 88.96 | ±1.6% | 87.58–90.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 89.30 | ±1.6% | 87.88–90.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 91.06 | ±1.4% | 89.77–92.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 91.06 | ±1.4% | 89.77–92.35 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.1% | -0.1% | fuera | 90.52 → 90.42 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | +0.8% | fuera | 89.67 → 90.42 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +1.0% | fuera | 89.56 → 90.42 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | +1.2% | fuera | 89.38 → 90.42 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | +1.1% | fuera | 89.45 → 90.42 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +1.6% | fuera | 88.99 → 90.42 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +1.5% | fuera | 89.12 → 90.42 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.2% | +1.7% | fuera | 88.91 → 90.42 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | +1.6% | fuera | 88.96 → 90.42 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | +1.3% | dentro | 89.30 → 90.42 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.2% | -0.7% | dentro | 91.06 → 90.42 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.2% | -0.7% | dentro | 91.06 → 90.42 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | -0.8% | dentro | 91.15 → 90.42 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | -0.5% | dentro | 90.86 → 90.42 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | -0.9% | dentro | 91.26 → 90.42 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 90.68 → 90.42 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -0.4% | dentro | 90.79 → 90.42 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.5% | -0.5% | dentro | 90.91 → 90.42 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 91.02 → 90.42 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -1.0% | dentro | 91.34 → 90.42 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.5% | -1.6% | fuera | 91.91 → 90.42 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.5% | -1.8% | fuera | 92.11 → 90.42 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -1.8% | fuera | 92.04 → 90.42 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -1.8% | fuera | 92.04 → 90.42 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -2.0% | fuera | 92.29 → 90.42 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -2.0% | fuera | 92.28 → 90.42 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | -1.8% | fuera | 92.08 → 90.42 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | -2.4% | fuera | 92.66 → 90.42 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 89.38 → 89.40 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 89.45 → 89.40 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.5% | dentro | 88.99 → 89.40 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 89.12 → 89.40 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.6% | dentro | 88.91 → 89.40 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.5% | dentro | 88.96 → 89.40 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | +0.1% | dentro | 89.30 → 89.40 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | -1.8% | fuera | 91.06 → 89.40 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | -1.8% | fuera | 91.06 → 89.40 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | -1.9% | fuera | 91.15 → 89.40 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | -1.6% | fuera | 90.86 → 89.40 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | -2.0% | fuera | 91.26 → 89.40 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -1.4% | fuera | 90.68 → 89.40 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -1.5% | fuera | 90.79 → 89.40 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -1.7% | fuera | 90.91 → 89.40 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -1.8% | fuera | 91.02 → 89.40 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -2.1% | fuera | 91.34 → 89.40 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | -2.7% | fuera | 91.91 → 89.40 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -2.9% | fuera | 92.11 → 89.40 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -2.9% | fuera | 92.04 → 89.40 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -2.9% | fuera | 92.04 → 89.40 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -3.1% | fuera | 92.29 → 89.40 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -3.1% | fuera | 92.28 → 89.40 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | -2.9% | fuera | 92.08 → 89.40 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | -3.5% | fuera | 92.66 → 89.40 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 88.96 → 89.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 89.30 → 89.05 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | -2.2% | fuera | 91.06 → 89.05 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | -2.2% | fuera | 91.06 → 89.05 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -2.3% | fuera | 91.15 → 89.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | -2.0% | fuera | 90.86 → 89.05 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | -2.4% | fuera | 91.26 → 89.05 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.