IBM 预期波动历史 International Business Machines Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内74%
|实际值| 低于预期值74%
平均预期波动幅度±5.1%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.3%
平均绝对误差2.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 236.01 | ±7.0% | 219.41–252.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 232.00 | ±7.7% | 214.07–249.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 227.50 | ±7.8% | 209.82–245.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 230.46 | ±7.5% | 213.24–247.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 226.81 | ±8.3% | 208.09–245.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 225.50 | ±8.5% | 206.32–244.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 220.95 | ±8.1% | 203.12–238.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 221.46 | ±8.5% | 202.69–240.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 221.54 | ±8.8% | 201.99–241.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 222.61 | ±9.1% | 202.26–242.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 226.04 | ±9.6% | 204.39–247.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 231.91 | ±10.7% | 207.11–256.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 232.19 | ±10.7% | 207.39–256.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 231.11 | ±11.1% | 205.51–256.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 230.02 | ±11.3% | 204.12–255.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 238.25 | ±11.5% | 210.88–265.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 237.60 | ±11.8% | 209.68–265.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 248.69 | ±11.4% | 220.24–277.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 248.01 | ±11.5% | 219.59–276.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 242.55 | ±11.9% | 213.57–271.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 233.80 | ±12.1% | 205.47–262.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 239.20 | ±12.5% | 209.22–269.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 232.11 | ±11.9% | 204.38–259.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 234.77 | ±11.6% | 207.52–262.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 234.89 | ±11.6% | 207.64–262.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 234.10 | ±11.8% | 206.38–261.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 236.01 | ±8.0% | 217.19–254.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 232.00 | ±8.7% | 211.80–252.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 227.50 | ±8.7% | 207.78–247.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 230.46 | ±8.6% | 210.59–250.34 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 232.00 → 232.14 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 227.50 → 232.14 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 230.46 → 232.14 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 226.81 → 232.14 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 225.50 → 232.14 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +5.1% | 区间外 | 220.95 → 232.14 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +4.8% | 区间外 | 221.46 → 232.14 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +4.8% | 区间外 | 221.54 → 232.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 222.61 → 232.14 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 226.04 → 232.14 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 231.91 → 232.14 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 232.19 → 232.14 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 231.11 → 232.14 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 230.02 → 232.14 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 238.25 → 232.14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 237.60 → 232.14 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -6.7% | 区间内 | 248.69 → 232.14 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -6.4% | 区间内 | 248.01 → 232.14 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 242.55 → 232.14 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 233.80 → 232.14 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 239.20 → 232.14 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 232.11 → 232.14 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 234.77 → 232.14 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 234.89 → 232.14 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 234.10 → 232.14 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 231.10 → 232.14 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 231.25 → 232.14 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 233.69 → 232.14 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 226.81 → 227.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 225.50 → 227.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +2.8% | 区间外 | 220.95 → 227.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +2.6% | 区间外 | 221.46 → 227.13 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 221.54 → 227.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 222.61 → 227.13 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 226.04 → 227.13 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 231.91 → 227.13 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 232.19 → 227.13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 231.11 → 227.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 230.02 → 227.13 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 238.25 → 227.13 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -4.4% | 区间内 | 237.60 → 227.13 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -8.7% | 区间外 | 248.69 → 227.13 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -8.4% | 区间外 | 248.01 → 227.13 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -6.4% | 区间内 | 242.55 → 227.13 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 233.80 → 227.13 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 239.20 → 227.13 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 232.11 → 227.13 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 234.77 → 227.13 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 234.89 → 227.13 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 234.10 → 227.13 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 231.10 → 227.13 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 231.25 → 227.13 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 233.69 → 227.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 222.61 → 222.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 226.04 → 222.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 231.91 → 222.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 232.19 → 222.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 231.11 → 222.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 230.02 → 222.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 238.25 → 222.64 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.