HUM histórico de movimento esperado Humana Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo91%
|Real| abaixo do esperado91%
Movimento esperado médio±9.6%
Movimento |real| médio4.4%
Erro médio absoluto5.5pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 414.98 | ±3.2% | 401.53–428.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 413.66 | ±5.2% | 392.16–435.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 427.40 | ±5.9% | 402.30–452.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 420.03 | ±6.5% | 392.88–447.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 430.27 | ±7.4% | 398.57–461.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 436.00 | ±15.5% | 368.25–503.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 396.59 | ±13.3% | 343.69–449.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 404.64 | ±13.7% | 349.19–460.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 404.49 | ±12.3% | 354.84–454.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 387.87 | ±12.9% | 337.77–437.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 379.68 | ±13.7% | 327.83–431.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 372.00 | ±15.0% | 316.15–427.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 372.31 | ±15.0% | 316.45–428.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 377.75 | ±15.3% | 320.00–435.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 383.18 | ±15.2% | 324.83–441.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 386.15 | ±15.2% | 327.50–444.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 396.62 | ±15.7% | 334.32–458.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 396.00 | ±16.3% | 331.60–460.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 409.80 | ±15.3% | 347.15–472.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 408.14 | ±15.2% | 346.14–470.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 400.02 | ±15.7% | 337.27–462.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 400.02 | ±15.7% | 337.27–462.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 399.46 | ±16.3% | 334.41–464.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 401.54 | ±16.3% | 336.09–466.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 403.46 | ±16.6% | 336.51–470.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 408.08 | ±17.0% | 338.78–477.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 414.98 | ±6.1% | 389.73–440.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 413.66 | ±7.0% | 384.51–442.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 427.40 | ±7.5% | 395.40–459.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 420.03 | ±7.7% | 387.48–452.58 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 413.66 → 413.16 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -3.3% | fora | 427.40 → 413.16 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -1.6% | dentro | 420.03 → 413.16 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -4.0% | dentro | 430.27 → 413.16 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | -5.2% | dentro | 436.00 → 413.16 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +4.2% | dentro | 396.59 → 413.16 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | +2.1% | dentro | 404.64 → 413.16 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | +2.1% | dentro | 404.49 → 413.16 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +6.5% | dentro | 387.87 → 413.16 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +8.8% | dentro | 379.68 → 413.16 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | +11.1% | dentro | 372.00 → 413.16 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | +11.0% | dentro | 372.31 → 413.16 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | +9.4% | dentro | 377.75 → 413.16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | +7.8% | dentro | 383.18 → 413.16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.6% | +7.0% | dentro | 386.15 → 413.16 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | +4.2% | dentro | 396.62 → 413.16 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.5% | +4.3% | dentro | 396.00 → 413.16 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 409.80 → 413.16 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | +1.2% | dentro | 408.14 → 413.16 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.2% | +3.3% | dentro | 400.02 → 413.16 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.2% | +3.3% | dentro | 400.02 → 413.16 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | +3.4% | dentro | 399.46 → 413.16 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | +2.9% | dentro | 401.54 → 413.16 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.5% | +2.4% | dentro | 403.46 → 413.16 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.5% | +1.2% | dentro | 408.08 → 413.16 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.7% | +4.6% | dentro | 395.00 → 413.16 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.7% | +5.3% | dentro | 392.18 → 413.16 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.5% | +7.2% | dentro | 385.54 → 413.16 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.4% | dentro | 430.27 → 431.87 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | -0.9% | dentro | 436.00 → 431.87 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | +8.9% | dentro | 396.59 → 431.87 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +6.7% | dentro | 404.64 → 431.87 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +6.8% | dentro | 404.49 → 431.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +11.3% | fora | 387.87 → 431.87 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +13.7% | fora | 379.68 → 431.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | +16.1% | fora | 372.00 → 431.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | +16.0% | fora | 372.31 → 431.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.8% | +14.3% | fora | 377.75 → 431.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.8% | +12.7% | dentro | 383.18 → 431.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | +11.8% | dentro | 386.15 → 431.87 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +8.9% | dentro | 396.62 → 431.87 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.7% | +9.1% | dentro | 396.00 → 431.87 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +5.4% | dentro | 409.80 → 431.87 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +5.8% | dentro | 408.14 → 431.87 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +8.0% | dentro | 400.02 → 431.87 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +8.0% | dentro | 400.02 → 431.87 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.9% | +8.1% | dentro | 399.46 → 431.87 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | +7.6% | dentro | 401.54 → 431.87 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +7.0% | dentro | 403.46 → 431.87 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.5% | +5.8% | dentro | 408.08 → 431.87 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.6% | +9.3% | dentro | 395.00 → 431.87 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.0% | +10.1% | dentro | 392.18 → 431.87 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.4% | +12.0% | dentro | 385.54 → 431.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | +0.1% | dentro | 387.87 → 388.36 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | +2.3% | dentro | 379.68 → 388.36 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | +4.4% | dentro | 372.00 → 388.36 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | +4.3% | dentro | 372.31 → 388.36 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.4% | +2.8% | dentro | 377.75 → 388.36 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | +1.4% | dentro | 383.18 → 388.36 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.9% | +0.6% | dentro | 386.15 → 388.36 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.