HOOD historial de movimiento esperado Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango69%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado69%
Movimiento esperado promedio±9.7%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.3%
Error medio abs.4.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 96.70 | ±5.4% | 91.45–101.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 98.92 | ±6.8% | 92.22–105.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 100.78 | ±7.5% | 93.23–108.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 110.64 | ±7.5% | 102.39–118.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 109.10 | ±7.9% | 100.50–117.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 107.11 | ±8.7% | 97.81–116.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 109.44 | ±8.7% | 99.94–118.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 112.18 | ±9.3% | 101.78–122.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 114.11 | ±9.6% | 103.16–125.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 112.75 | ±10.0% | 101.50–124.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 111.34 | ±10.9% | 99.24–123.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 123.82 | ±14.4% | 106.04–141.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 123.71 | ±14.4% | 105.94–141.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 123.70 | ±14.8% | 105.40–142.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 119.85 | ±15.2% | 101.67–138.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 109.30 | ±14.9% | 93.05–125.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 105.04 | ±15.4% | 88.89–121.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 109.00 | ±16.2% | 91.35–126.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 114.50 | ±16.7% | 95.42–133.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 112.55 | ±17.1% | 93.32–131.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 112.09 | ±17.2% | 92.81–131.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 114.51 | ±17.5% | 94.46–134.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 117.79 | ±17.8% | 96.79–138.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 122.12 | ±18.2% | 99.87–144.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 122.09 | ±18.2% | 99.84–144.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 124.06 | ±18.9% | 100.58–147.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 96.70 | ±10.9% | 86.12–107.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 98.92 | ±12.0% | 87.07–110.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 100.78 | ±12.2% | 88.50–113.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 110.64 | ±12.1% | 97.24–124.04 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 98.92 → 98.87 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -1.9% | dentro | 100.78 → 98.87 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -10.6% | fuera | 110.64 → 98.87 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -9.4% | fuera | 109.10 → 98.87 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -7.7% | fuera | 107.11 → 98.87 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -9.7% | fuera | 109.44 → 98.87 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -11.9% | fuera | 112.18 → 98.87 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -13.4% | fuera | 114.11 → 98.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -12.3% | fuera | 112.75 → 98.87 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -11.2% | fuera | 111.34 → 98.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -20.1% | fuera | 123.82 → 98.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -20.1% | fuera | 123.71 → 98.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -20.1% | fuera | 123.70 → 98.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | -17.5% | fuera | 119.85 → 98.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -9.5% | dentro | 109.30 → 98.87 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -5.9% | dentro | 105.04 → 98.87 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.6% | -9.3% | dentro | 109.00 → 98.87 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -13.6% | dentro | 114.50 → 98.87 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.0% | -12.2% | dentro | 112.55 → 98.87 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | -11.8% | dentro | 112.09 → 98.87 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | -13.7% | dentro | 114.51 → 98.87 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.6% | -16.1% | dentro | 117.79 → 98.87 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | -19.0% | fuera | 122.12 → 98.87 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | -19.0% | fuera | 122.09 → 98.87 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.7% | -20.3% | fuera | 124.06 → 98.87 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | -9.2% | dentro | 108.92 → 98.87 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | -4.8% | dentro | 103.90 → 98.87 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | -5.6% | dentro | 104.75 → 98.87 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 109.10 → 109.02 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 107.11 → 109.02 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -0.4% | dentro | 109.44 → 109.02 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -2.8% | dentro | 112.18 → 109.02 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -4.5% | dentro | 114.11 → 109.02 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -3.3% | dentro | 112.75 → 109.02 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -2.1% | dentro | 111.34 → 109.02 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -11.9% | fuera | 123.82 → 109.02 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -11.9% | fuera | 123.71 → 109.02 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | -11.9% | fuera | 123.70 → 109.02 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -9.0% | dentro | 119.85 → 109.02 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 109.30 → 109.02 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +3.8% | dentro | 105.04 → 109.02 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +0.0% | dentro | 109.00 → 109.02 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -4.8% | dentro | 114.50 → 109.02 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -3.1% | dentro | 112.55 → 109.02 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | -2.7% | dentro | 112.09 → 109.02 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -4.8% | dentro | 114.51 → 109.02 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.6% | -7.4% | dentro | 117.79 → 109.02 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -10.7% | dentro | 122.12 → 109.02 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -10.7% | dentro | 122.09 → 109.02 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.2% | -12.1% | dentro | 124.06 → 109.02 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 108.92 → 109.02 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.4% | +4.9% | dentro | 103.90 → 109.02 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | +4.1% | dentro | 104.75 → 109.02 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 112.75 → 112.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.6% | +1.3% | dentro | 111.34 → 112.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -8.9% | fuera | 123.82 → 112.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -8.9% | fuera | 123.71 → 112.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | -8.9% | dentro | 123.70 → 112.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | -5.9% | dentro | 119.85 → 112.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | +3.1% | dentro | 109.30 → 112.74 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.