HOOD 预期波动历史 Robinhood Markets, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内75%
|实际值| 低于预期值75%
平均预期波动幅度±9.1%
平均|实际|波动幅度5.9%
平均绝对误差5.0pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 98.92 | ±0.5% | 98.41–99.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 100.78 | ±4.3% | 96.41–105.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 110.64 | ±4.6% | 105.56–115.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 109.10 | ±5.5% | 103.12–115.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 107.11 | ±6.3% | 100.31–113.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 109.44 | ±6.5% | 102.29–116.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 112.18 | ±7.1% | 104.25–120.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 114.11 | ±7.5% | 105.56–122.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 112.75 | ±8.2% | 103.53–121.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 111.34 | ±8.7% | 101.64–121.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 123.82 | ±12.7% | 108.12–139.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 123.71 | ±12.7% | 108.01–139.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 123.70 | ±13.1% | 107.45–139.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 119.85 | ±13.5% | 103.62–136.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 109.30 | ±13.4% | 94.67–123.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 105.04 | ±13.9% | 90.44–119.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 109.00 | ±14.6% | 93.05–124.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 114.50 | ±15.1% | 97.22–131.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 112.55 | ±15.0% | 95.70–129.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 112.09 | ±15.6% | 94.64–129.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 114.51 | ±15.8% | 96.36–132.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 117.79 | ±16.6% | 98.24–137.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 122.12 | ±16.7% | 101.77–142.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 122.09 | ±16.7% | 101.74–142.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 124.06 | ±17.7% | 102.14–145.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 108.92 | ±17.0% | 90.42–127.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 103.90 | ±16.7% | 86.55–121.25 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 104.75 | ±16.7% | 87.23–122.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 98.92 | ±6.8% | 92.22–105.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 100.78 | ±7.5% | 93.23–108.33 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 109.10 → 109.02 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 107.11 → 109.02 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 109.44 → 109.02 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 112.18 → 109.02 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 114.11 → 109.02 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 112.75 → 109.02 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 111.34 → 109.02 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 123.82 → 109.02 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 123.71 → 109.02 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 123.70 → 109.02 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -9.0% | 区间内 | 119.85 → 109.02 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 109.30 → 109.02 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 105.04 → 109.02 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 109.00 → 109.02 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 114.50 → 109.02 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 112.55 → 109.02 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 112.09 → 109.02 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 114.51 → 109.02 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.6% | -7.4% | 区间内 | 117.79 → 109.02 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -10.7% | 区间内 | 122.12 → 109.02 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -10.7% | 区间内 | 122.09 → 109.02 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.2% | -12.1% | 区间内 | 124.06 → 109.02 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 108.92 → 109.02 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.4% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 103.90 → 109.02 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 104.75 → 109.02 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 112.75 → 112.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.6% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 111.34 → 112.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -8.9% | 区间外 | 123.82 → 112.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -8.9% | 区间外 | 123.71 → 112.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | -8.9% | 区间内 | 123.70 → 112.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | -5.9% | 区间内 | 119.85 → 112.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 109.30 → 112.74 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | +7.3% | 区间内 | 105.04 → 112.74 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.1% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 109.00 → 112.74 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.5% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 114.50 → 112.74 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.2% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 112.55 → 112.74 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.2% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 112.09 → 112.74 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.5% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 114.51 → 112.74 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.0% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 117.79 → 112.74 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.6% | -7.7% | 区间内 | 122.12 → 112.74 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.6% | -7.7% | 区间内 | 122.09 → 112.74 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.9% | -9.1% | 区间内 | 124.06 → 112.74 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.8% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 108.92 → 112.74 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.7% | +8.5% | 区间内 | 103.90 → 112.74 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.9% | +7.6% | 区间内 | 104.75 → 112.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 123.82 → 119.40 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 123.71 → 119.40 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 123.70 → 119.40 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.8% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 119.85 → 119.40 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.9% | +9.2% | 区间外 | 109.30 → 119.40 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.7% | +13.7% | 区间外 | 105.04 → 119.40 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.7% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 109.00 → 119.40 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.2% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 114.50 → 119.40 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.8% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 112.55 → 119.40 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.1% | +6.5% | 区间内 | 112.09 → 119.40 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.5% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 114.51 → 119.40 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.1% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 117.79 → 119.40 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.7% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 122.12 → 119.40 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.7% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 122.09 → 119.40 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±13.0% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 124.06 → 119.40 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.